Francis Ferris
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
Rode 663 times in our archive record (2005–2006), almost all on the flat, winning on 7% of them — beating the margin-free market read across that record (Fair A/E 1.29).
The record is strongest at Chepstow (11.7%, n=77), clear of the rider's 6.6% baseline. It is weakest at Windsor (0% over 30 rides) — the widest gap in the record. Rides in big fields of 14 or more are the standout value angle: 5.2% strikes only just below baseline, but Fair A/E 1.22 and +87.00 to a £1 stake over 210 rides — a record the market has persistently underpriced. Bryn Palling supplied 30% of the rides and edges the rider's average (9.4% vs 6.6%, A/E 1.58) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. The rider also read well on Soft going (13.2%, n=38). The record read poorly in Class 2 — 0% over 31 rides, 6.6pts below the baseline. Seasonally, the rider fired May–Jun.
Riding patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 6.6% baselineEach tile is the record in that situation vs the 6.6% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. Tiles that depend on a horse's earlier runs (debuts, time off, first-time headgear, new connections, last-time-out winners) are not shown on an archive-era record: for runs this early our archive cannot see what came before.
Notable angles
vs their own baselineRecord by conditions
same window as headerGoing
Courses
Class
Market position
Distance
By season
Handicaps
Field size
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
Horses ridden
same window as header · most-raced firstBy month
strike by month, 2005–2006Riding for
same window · biggest samples firstCareer highlights
lifetime archive, 2005→Sires of the horses ridden
progeny record · win % by ground and tripThe record
latest 50 of 663 · newest firstThe latest 50 of 663 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 3 January 2005 to 19 October 2006.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
- What is Francis Ferris's strike rate?
- Francis Ferris has won 44 of 663 rides between 2005 and 2006, a strike rate of 6.6% (as at 6 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive. Our archive begins in 2005, so anything earlier is not counted.
- Which course does Francis Ferris do best at?
- Chepstow by strike rate: 9 wins from 77 rides (11.7%) between 2005 and 2006. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
- Which yard does Francis Ferris ride most for?
- Bryn Palling, with 202 rides between 2005 and 2006 — 30% of the total. That pairing has won 19 (9.4%).
- What is Francis Ferris's Fair A/E?
- 1.29, from 659 rides with a computed fair probability between 2005 and 2006. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.