No runners in the last 5 seasons — showing the lifetime record, from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it.
14–157
Wins / Runs
8.9%
Strike rate
n=157
23 (15%)
Placed
1.54
Fair A/E
n=157 · 1.30 incl. margin
+47.50
£1 level stake
n=157 at SP · +30.3%
£47,392
Prize money (window)
Strike by season
6.3%
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
KTB Yard Profile
Sent out around 20 runners a season, winning with 9% of them — beating the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 1.54).
Deterministic profile computed from 157 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 15 Oct 2026
KTB at a glanceClaiming riders: 9.9%
The read
The record is strongest at Kempton (AW) (13.2%, n=38), clear of the yard's 8.9% baseline. Runners with a claiming rider up are the standout value angle: 9.9% strikes only just above baseline, but Fair A/E 1.59 and +59.50 to a £1 stake over 101 runners — a record the market has persistently underpriced. The yard also read well over 6f – 7f (14.7%, n=68) and in Class 5 (13%, n=54). The record read poorly off a 8-14-day break — 3.2% over 31 runners, 5.7pts below the baseline. The stable star of the record was Brunelleschi (GB) — 9 wins from 49 runs for the yard.
Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.
Yard patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 8.9% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
8%−0.9
n=25 · A/E 1.97 · £1 +18.00
New recruits · first run for the yard
25%+16.1
n=8 · A/E 5.81 · £1 +31.00
Debutants · first career start
0%−8.9
n=10 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −10.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
20%+11.1
n=5 · A/E 4.39 · £1 +8.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
50%+41.1
n=6 · A/E 9.30 · £1 +50.00
When favourite
0%
n=4 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −4.00
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
9.9%+1.0
n=101 · A/E 1.59 · £1 +59.50
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
0%−8.9
n=1 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −1.00
Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 8.9% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.
Notable angles
vs their own baseline
Over 6f – 7f14.7% vs 8.9% · n=68
Off a 8-14-day break3.2% vs 8.9% · n=31
In Class 64.8% vs 8.9% · n=63
In Class 513% vs 8.9% · n=54
At Kempton (AW)13.2% vs 8.9% · n=38
With a new jockey booking7.1% vs 8.9% · n=70 · A/E 1.48
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.
Record by conditions
same window as header
Race type
TypeRWSR£1
Flat135128.9%+44.50
Hurdle1119.1%+1.00
Chase7114.3%+6.00
NH Flat400%−4.00
Going
GoingRWSR£1
Standard (AW)8989%+7.50
Good3026.7%+33.00
Good to Firm26415.4%+19.00
Good to Soft800%−8.00
Soft300%−3.00
Heavy100%−1.00
Courses
CourseRWSR£1
Kempton (AW)38513.2%+27.00
Wolverhampton (AW)2827.1%−13.50
Lingfield (AW)1915.3%−2.00
Yarmouth1100%−11.00
Fontwell9222.2%+16.00
Newmarket8225%+34.00
Windsor6116.7%+1.00
Newmarket400%−4.00
Uttoxeter400%−4.00
Southwell (AW)400%−4.00
Brighton300%−3.00
Southwell300%−3.00
Salisbury200%−2.00
Market Rasen200%−2.00
Nottingham200%−2.00
Class
ClassRWSR£1
Class 66334.8%−11.00
Class 554713%+39.50
Class 427311.1%+27.00
Class 79111.1%−4.00
Class 3300%−3.00
Class 1100%−1.00
Market position
In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite6116.7%0.84−1.00
2nd–3rd fav19315.8%1.24+2.00
4th–6th fav35514.3%2.05+28.50
7th+ in betting9755.2%1.63+18.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.
Distance
DistanceRWSR£1
6f – 7f681014.7%+69.00
1m – 1m1f2613.8%−17.50
Under 6f2300%−23.00
1m2f – 1m4f1516.7%+19.00
2m1f – 2m4f10110%+2.00
1m5f – 2m700%−7.00
2m5f – 3m7114.3%+6.00
Over 3m100%−1.00
By season
By seasonRWSR£1
20089111.1%+4.00
200926623.1%+60.00
20103725.4%−5.00
20112514%−20.00
20122400%−24.00
201320315%+40.00
20141616.3%−7.50
Handicaps
HandicapsRWSR£1
Handicaps1141311.4%+77.50
Field size
Field sizeRWSR£1
11-13 runners6868.8%−4.00
8-10 runners5247.7%+26.00
5-7 runners18211.1%−1.50
14-16 runners1417.1%+15.00
17+ runners400%−4.00
2-4 runners11100%+16.00
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
All 18 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next
Of the 18 horses listed, 7 arrived from another yard in our archive; 11 had their first archived run for this yard.
6 have since run for another yard, most often for Miss J Ellis (3); 12 have no later run for another yard in our archive.
Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.
When the yard fires
strike by month, lifetime
JFMAMJJASOND
10830271060137000
A flat yard: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.
In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Progeny have won 9.7% of 2,375 runs since 2008 (131 horses). Weakest over 1m2f – 1m4f (all codes): 6.3% from 333.
Bertolini (USA)18.5% · 5–27
Progeny have won 8% of 7,851 runs since 2008 (518 horses).
Cape Cross (IRE)17.4% · 4–23
Progeny have won 13.3% of 12,754 runs since 2008 (988 horses). Weakest on Heavy going: 8.4% from 477. Weakest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 7.8% from 230.
Progeny have won 8.1% of 3,236 runs since 2008 (195 horses). Weakest on Good to Soft going: 5% from 339.
Titus Livius (FR)8.3% · 1–12
Progeny have won 8.3% of 2,080 runs since 2008 (132 horses). Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 4.5% from 157.
Captain Rio (GB)0% · 0–10
Progeny have won 9.5% of 6,912 runs since 2008 (423 horses).
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 15 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.
The record
latest 50 of 370 · newest first
The latest 50 of 370 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 4 January 2005 to 11 August 2014.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
What is Patrick Gilligan's strike rate?
Patrick Gilligan has won 14 of 157 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 8.9% (as at 15 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Patrick Gilligan do best at?
Kempton (AW) by strike rate: 5 wins from 38 runners (13.2%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
What is Patrick Gilligan's Fair A/E?
1.54, from 157 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Patrick Gilligan·SR 8.9%·A/E 1.54
KTB
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