What is Rae Guest's strike rate?

Rae Guest has won 58 of 451 runners since 2022, a strike rate of 12.9% (as at 22 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does Rae Guest do best at?

Chelmsford City (AW) by strike rate: 8 wins from 60 runners (13.3%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Who rides most for Rae Guest?

Callum Shepherd, with 114 runners since 2022 — 25% of the total. That pairing has won 27 (23.7%).

What is Rae Guest's Fair A/E?

1.18, from 449 runners with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Trainer profile

Rae Guest

451 runners in the last 5 seasons · 65 individual horses

As at 22 Oct 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Last runner 336 days ago 97% of runners on the flat

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)

from 1 Jan 2022

58–451

Wins / Runs

12.9%

Strike rate

n=451

138 (31%)

Placed

1.18

Fair A/E

n=449 · 1.04 incl. margin

−123.36

£1 level stake

n=451 at SP · −27.4%

£766k

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

12%

KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 90 runners a season, almost all on the flat, winning with 13% of them — beating the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 1.18). The edge shows sharpest with horses returning fresh: 18% off breaks of two months or more (61 runs).

Deterministic profile computed from 451 archived runs (last 5 seasons) · updated 22 Oct 2026

KTB at a glance Fires Jun–Jul Fresh horses: 18% 48.8% when favourite Callum Shepherd: 23.7% from 114 Sends off the favourite in 9% of races

The read

It is weakest at Kempton (AW) (5.6% over 36 runners) — the widest gap in the record. Horses returning fresh after 61+ days have been a positive signal at 18% (n=61, Fair A/E 1.61), but debutants struggle at 7.5% (n=40, Fair A/E 1.34). Callum Shepherd rides 25% of the entries and beats the yard's average (23.7% vs 12.9%, A/E 2.01) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. The yard also reads well on Good going (20.8%, n=77). The record reads poorly at trips under 6f — 7% over 43 runners, 5.9pts below the baseline. 15 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the yard has landed: the 32Red.com Cheveley Park Stakes at Newmarket (Oct 2008, £134,971). The stable star of the record: Mirza (GB) — 11 wins from 71 runs for the yard. Seasonally, the yard fires Jun–Jul.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 12.9% baseline

Fresh · 61+ days off

18%+5.1

n=61 · A/E 1.61 · £1 −6.43

New recruits · first run for the yard

20%+7.1

n=5 · A/E 2.33 · £1 +0.50

Debutants · first career start

7.5%−5.4

n=40 · A/E 1.34 · £1 −19.42

First-time headgear · true-first definition

0%−12.9

n=18 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −18.00

Headgear returns · back on after a bare run

0%−12.9

n=2 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −2.00

When favourite

48.8%

n=41 · A/E 1.47 · £1 +14.29

Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle

9.8%−3.1

n=61 · A/E 1.13 · £1 −5.65

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

4%−8.9

n=25 · A/E 0.79 · £1 −18.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 12.9% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

With Callum Shepherd 23.7% vs 12.9% · n=114

On last-time-out winners 22% vs 12.9% · n=59

On Good going 20.8% vs 12.9% · n=77

At Kempton (AW) 5.6% vs 12.9% · n=36

On Standard (AW) going 8.6% vs 12.9% · n=209

At trips under 6f 7% vs 12.9% · n=43

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1

Flat 437 54 12.4% −122.19

NH Flat 14 4 28.6% −1.17

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Standard (AW) 209 18 8.6% −119.04

Good to Firm 88 14 15.9% +14.39

Good 77 16 20.8% +14.44

Good to Soft 42 6 14.3% −12.65

Soft 28 3 10.7% −16.75

Heavy 5 0 0% −5.00

Firm 2 1 50% +1.25

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Chelmsford City (AW) 60 8 13.3% −23.77

Wolverhampton (AW) 50 4 8% −30.50

Lingfield (AW) 36 3 8.3% −14.18

Kempton (AW) 36 2 5.6% −25.50

Windsor 28 3 10.7% −14.50

Yarmouth 26 5 19.2% −5.30

Southwell (AW) 24 1 4.2% −22.09

Bath 18 5 27.8% +9.75

Newmarket 15 2 13.3% −4.00

Newmarket 14 1 7.1% +5.00

Nottingham 14 4 28.6% +13.37

Lingfield 13 4 30.8% +14.20

Goodwood 10 0 0% −10.00

Brighton 10 2 20% +21.00

Salisbury 9 0 0% −9.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 5 166 23 13.9% −64.09

Class 6 119 14 11.8% −30.91

Class 4 64 9 14.1% −5.39

Class 2 40 4 10% −10.47

Class 3 37 7 18.9% +5.50

Class 1 25 1 4% −18.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 44 21 47.7% 1.47 +14.54

2nd–3rd fav 111 25 22.5% 1.31 +13.10

4th–6th fav 146 7 4.8% 0.62 −86.00

7th+ in betting 150 5 3.3% 1.17 −65.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Aramis Grey (IRE)then Jack Jones 33 5 21 18 Dec 24

War Chant (IRE)then Daniel & Claire Kubler 21 7 9 12 Dec 24

Divina Grace (IRE)then Andrew Balding 20 5 10 11 Oct 24

Cry Havoc (IRE) 19 2 5 12 Oct 23

Land Of Winter (FR) 17 1 1 3 Nov 23

Lia Rose (GB) 16 1 6 28 Jan 25

Afloat (GB)then George Scott 15 3 6 26 Oct 24

Heaven Knows (GB) 14 1 7 6 Nov 25

Eklil (GB)from Owen Burrows · then Andy Irvine 14 3 8 17 Jul 23

Inlet (GB)from Sir Michael Stoute · then Mike Sowersby 13 0 3 4 Nov 25

Jewel In My Crown (GB) 12 3 6 24 May 23

Lady Jane Grey (GB) 11 1 2 15 Aug 23

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 65 horses sent out in this window — each ran at least 1 time. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 60 horses listed, 6 arrived from another yard in our archive; 54 had their first archived run for this yard.

26 have since run for another yard, most often for Jack Jones (4) and Kevin Philippart De Foy (2); 34 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

When the yard fires

strike by month, 5 seasons

JFMAMJJASOND

41171512181811141776

A flat yard: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first

Go-to riderCallum Shepherd

25% of all rides
23.7% SR · A/E 2.01

RiderRWSR£1

Callum Shepherd 114 27 23.7% +31.15

David Probert 39 5 12.8% −18.89

Darragh Keenan 30 3 10% −4.00

Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2005→

401

Archived wins

Pattern / graded wins

£3.68m

Prize money

2012

Best season · 36 wins

In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.

Serious Attitude (IRE) — 32Red.com Cheveley Park Stakes (Fillies' Group 1) Newmarket · Oct 2008 · Group 1

£134,971

Show Stealer (GB) — Marathonbet Sportsbook Windsor Sprint Series Finale Handicap Windsor · Jul 2019 · Class 2

£46,193

Yomalo (IRE) — Ballyogan Stakes (Fillies' Group 3) Leopardstown · Jun 2006 · Group 3

£45,500

Notable horses

Mirza (GB) Aramis Grey (IRE) Show Stealer (GB) Kachumba (GB) War Chant (IRE) After The Show (GB)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

War Command (USA) 22.5% · 9–40

Progeny have won 9.6% of 2,274 runs since 2008 (200 horses). Weakest on Soft going: 4.6% from 285.

Gutaifan (IRE) 14.3% · 5–35

Progeny have won 8.9% of 3,753 runs since 2008 (301 horses).

Golden Horn (GB) 17.6% · 6–34

Progeny have won 13.8% of 3,734 runs since 2008 (345 horses). Weakest on Heavy going: 9.3% from 161. Weakest over 6f – 7f (all codes): 8.2% from 232.

Camelot (GB) 6.7% · 2–30

Progeny have won 11.7% of 7,683 runs since 2008 (753 horses).

Showcasing (GB) 3.6% · 1–28

Progeny have won 10.2% of 11,591 runs since 2008 (997 horses). Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 5.6% from 108.

Sea The Moon (GER) 19% · 4–21

Progeny have won 12% of 4,543 runs since 2008 (500 horses). Strongest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 15% from 804.

Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 22 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 3,255 · newest first

The latest 50 of 3,255 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 7 January 2005 to 20 November 2025.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

20 Nov 25 Lingfield (AW) Sunlit Uplands (IRE)J: Rob Hornby BetMGM Fleur De Lys EBF Fillies' Stakes (Listed)Class 1 · 8f · Standard · 10 ran 4th 13/2

06 Nov 25 Chelmsford City (AW) Heaven Knows (GB)J: Hector Crouch 'Timeform Sprint Series Qualifier' HandicapClass 5 · 5f · Standard · 9 ran 6th 11/2

04 Nov 25 Lingfield (AW) Inlet (GB)J: Kieran Shoemark Create Your Bet Builders At Midnite HandicapClass 6 · 16f · Standard · 10 ran 5th 15/2

29 Oct 25 Nottingham Sunlit Uplands (IRE)J: Darragh Keenan PricedUp Robin Hood Stakes (Listed) (Formerly Known As The Ben Marshall Stakes)Class 1 · 8.5f · Soft · 8 ran 6th 40/1

23 Oct 25 Chelmsford City (AW) Heaven Knows (GB)J: Oisin Murphy 'Timeform Sprint Series Qualifier' HandicapClass 5 · 6f · Standard · 10 ran 4th 9/2

16 Oct 25 Southwell (AW) Inlet (GB)J: Dylan Hogan attheraces.com/marketmovers HandicapClass 6 · 14f · Standard · 9 ran 5th 13/2

04 Oct 25 Wolverhampton (AW) Heaven Knows (GB)J: Kieran O'Neill Best Odds Guaranteed At bet365 HandicapClass 5 · 6f · Standard · 9 ran 2nd 14/1

03 Oct 25 Saint-Cloud (FR) Sunlit Uplands (IRE)J: Darragh Keenan Prix Coronation () (3yo+ Fillies & Mares) (Turf)8f · Soft · 15 ran 7th 13/1

22 Sep 25 Wolverhampton (AW) Inlet (GB)J: Kieran Shoemark Arc 1MILLION Bonus Bigger Than Ever HandicapClass 6 · 16.5f · Standard · 10 ran 2nd 9/2

12 Sep 25 Sandown Sunlit Uplands (IRE)J: George Wood Rekorderlig Fillies' HandicapClass 4 · 7f · Soft · 10 ran 1st 11/4

30 Aug 25 Chelmsford City (AW) Inlet (GB)J: Connor Planas CCR Fireworks Spectacular HandicapClass 6 · 13.5f · Standard · 8 ran 5th 11/2

22 Aug 25 Goodwood Heaven Knows (GB)J: Callum Shepherd Virgin Bet Supports Safe Gambling HandicapClass 5 · 6f · Good · 10 ran 5th 11/2

21 Aug 25 Lingfield (AW) Inlet (GB)J: Connor Planas Grange Travel Coach And Horses HandicapClass 6 · 16f · Standard · 13 ran 2nd 15/2

11 Aug 25 Windsor Inlet (GB)J: Connor Planas Fitzdares Telephone And Text Betting HandicapClass 6 · 11.5f · Good To Firm · 7 ran 4th 11/2

01 Aug 25 Newmarket Inlet (GB)J: Connor Planas Ultimate Summer Fillies' HandicapClass 5 · 12f · Good To Soft · 9 ran 5th 11/2

28 Jul 25 Windsor Heaven Knows (GB)J: Connor Planas Fitzdares Sprint Series HandicapClass 3 · 6f · Good To Firm · 7 ran 4th 5/1

05 Jul 25 Nottingham Heaven Knows (GB)J: Robert Havlin Joy Silvester Barbering HandicapClass 5 · 6f · Good To Firm · 10 ran 2nd 7/1

02 Jun 25 Windsor Heaven Knows (GB)J: Callum Shepherd Download The Raceday Ready App Confined HandicapClass 5 · 6f · Good To Firm · 11 ran 4th 14/1

30 May 25 Haydock Sunlit Uplands (IRE)J: Callum Shepherd Betfred 'Join Our Sports Club' HandicapClass 5 · 7f · Good · 12 ran 1st 4/1F

14 May 25 Yarmouth Sunlit Uplands (IRE)J: Callum Shepherd Mental Health Awareness Week Fillies' Novice Stakes (GBB Race)Class 4 · 6f · Good To Firm · 7 ran 2nd 9/2

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Rae Guest's strike rate?: Rae Guest has won 58 of 451 runners since 2022, a strike rate of 12.9% (as at 22 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Rae Guest do best at?: Chelmsford City (AW) by strike rate: 8 wins from 60 runners (13.3%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for Rae Guest?: Callum Shepherd, with 114 runners since 2022 — 25% of the total. That pairing has won 27 (23.7%).
What is Rae Guest's Fair A/E?: 1.18, from 449 runners with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.