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Trainer profile

Bryn Palling

843 runners in the lifetime window · 77 individual horses
As at 15 Oct 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily
Last runner Jan 2013 99% of runners on the flat
Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)
No runners in the last 5 seasons — showing the lifetime record, from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it.
46–843
Wins / Runs
5.5%
Strike rate
n=843
189 (22%)
Placed
0.79
Fair A/E
n=837 · 0.67 incl. margin
−309.75
£1 level stake
n=843 at SP · −36.7%
£243k
Prize money (window)
Strike by season
0%
KTB Yard Profile

Sent out around 140 runners a season, almost all on the flat, winning with 6% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 0.79).

Deterministic profile computed from 843 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 15 Oct 2026
KTB at a glance Fired Mar–Apr David Probert: 7.9% from 228 Claiming riders: 5.6%
The read

It is weakest at Leicester (0% over 49 runners) — the widest gap in the record. Debutants struggle at 0% (n=55, Fair A/E 0.00). The market has consistently overbet horses returning fresh after 61+ days: 3.4% strike, Fair A/E 0.59 and −74.00 to a £1 stake over 148 runners — those runners underperformed what the price implied. David Probert rode 27% of the entries and edges the yard's average (7.9% vs 5.5%, A/E 1.04) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. The yard also read well off a 0-7-day break (11.3%, n=53). The record read poorly off a break of 180+ days — 0% over 46 runners, 5.5pts below the baseline. The stable star of the record was Pelham Crescent (IRE) — 9 wins from 76 runs for the yard. Seasonally, the yard fired Mar–Apr.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 5.5% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
3.4%−2.1
n=148 · A/E 0.59 · £1 −74.00
New recruits · first run for the yard
14.3%+8.8
n=7 · A/E 2.70 · £1 +8.00
Debutants · first career start
0%−5.5
n=55 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −55.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
3.7%−1.8
n=27 · A/E 0.81 · £1 −18.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
0%−5.5
n=13 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −13.00
When favourite
14.8%
n=27 · A/E 0.61 · £1 −10.25
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
5.6%+0.1
n=196 · A/E 0.77 · £1 −81.25
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
0%−5.5
n=7 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −7.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 5.5% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline
On last-time-out winners 13% vs 5.5% · n=46
Off a 0-7-day break 11.3% vs 5.5% · n=53
With debutants 0% vs 5.5% · n=55
At Leicester 0% vs 5.5% · n=49
Off a break of 180+ days 0% vs 5.5% · n=46
With Declan Cannon 9.5% vs 5.5% · n=63
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1
Flat 832 45 5.4% −313.75
NH Flat 8 1 12.5% +7.00
Hurdle 3 0 0% −3.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1
Standard (AW) 331 14 4.2% −151.50
Good 159 8 5% −47.00
Good to Firm 146 9 6.2% −50.50
Soft 82 4 4.9% −30.00
Good to Soft 76 7 9.2% −9.50
Firm 30 2 6.7% −19.75
Heavy 19 2 10.5% −1.50

Courses

CourseRWSR£1
Wolverhampton (AW) 241 11 4.6% −112.50
Chepstow 145 10 6.9% −30.50
Bath 92 8 8.7% −10.25
Leicester 49 0 0% −49.00
Lingfield (AW) 42 1 2.4% −16.00
Ffos Las 38 1 2.6% −28.00
Nottingham 34 3 8.8% +3.50
Warwick 30 3 10% −8.50
Brighton 30 1 3.3% −24.50
Kempton (AW) 27 1 3.7% −12.00
Southwell (AW) 21 1 4.8% −11.00
Windsor 16 1 6.3% +5.00
Salisbury 15 0 0% −15.00
Newbury 14 0 0% −14.00
Lingfield 12 1 8.3% −1.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1
Class 6 411 14 3.4% −248.00
Class 5 303 20 6.6% −65.25
Class 4 86 6 7% −6.50
Class 7 20 4 20% +11.00
Class 3 14 2 14.3% +8.00
Class 1 7 0 0% −7.00
Class 2 2 0 0% −2.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite 37 6 16.2% 0.71 −11.25
2nd–3rd fav 113 9 8% 0.58 −60.00
4th–6th fav 263 18 6.8% 0.91 −66.50
7th+ in betting 430 13 3% 0.91 −172.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first
HorseRWPlLast ran
Corrib (IRE) 60 2 22 7 Jan 13
Pelham Crescent (IRE)from Richard Hannon Snr · then Matthew Salaman 60 7 19 8 Nov 12
Bidable (GB) 48 4 13 8 Jan 13
Forward Feline (IRE) 43 3 16 26 Apr 12
Cwmni (GB) 43 3 14 26 Apr 12
Spring Secret (GB)then Tim Vaughan 38 3 9 7 Jan 13
Abhainn (IRE) 33 2 6 30 May 11
Sir Bruno (FR)then Tim Vaughan 31 1 8 7 Jan 13
Superstitious Me (IRE) 19 0 2 2 Oct 10
Mr Maximas (GB) 18 1 5 11 Aug 11
Arthur's Edge (GB)then Christopher Mason 18 6 10 15 May 10
Quadra Hop (IRE) 17 0 3 23 Aug 12
The 60 most-raced of 77 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 60 horses listed, 6 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from Evan Williams (2) and Richard Hannon Snr (2); 54 had their first archived run for this yard.

23 have since run for another yard, most often for Tim Vaughan (7) and Christopher Mason (4); 37 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

When the yard fires

strike by month, lifetime
JFMAMJJASOND
528755348766
A flat yard: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first
Go-to riderDavid Probert
27% of all rides
7.9% SR · A/E 1.04
RiderRWSR£1
David Probert 228 18 7.9% +26.75
Cathy Gannon 167 6 3.6% −97.50
Luke Morris 77 4 5.2% −53.50
Neil Chalmers 69 4 5.8% −25.00
Declan Cannon 63 6 9.5% −4.00
Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2005→
90
Archived wins
£480k
Prize money
2009
Best season · 19 wins
In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Edge of Gold (GB) — DBS St Leger Yearling Stakes Newmarket · Aug 2007 · Class 2
£24,625
Arthur's Edge (GB) — Connolly's Red Mills Trainers Championship Handicap Brighton · Oct 2009 · Class 4
£8,831
Arthur's Edge (GB) — Rummy At 32red.com Handicap Southwell (AW) · Mar 2010 · Class 3
£7,771
Notable horses
Pelham Crescent (IRE) Indian Edge (GB) Arthur's Edge (GB) Corrib (IRE) Bidable (GB) My Michelle (GB)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip
Auction House (USA) 6.8% · 8–117
Progeny have won 6.8% of 1,734 runs since 2008 (142 horses). Strongest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 10% from 100.
Giant's Causeway (USA) 11.7% · 7–60
Progeny have won 11.6% of 3,018 runs since 2008 (320 horses). Weakest on Soft going: 7.1% from 394. Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 8.3% from 422.
Lahib (USA) 3.3% · 2–60
Progeny have won 7.6% of 1,699 runs since 2008 (176 horses).
Reset (AUS) 6.3% · 3–48
Progeny have won 8.4% of 1,388 runs since 2008 (99 horses). Strongest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 12% from 208.
One Cool Cat (USA) 7% · 3–43
Progeny have won 9.4% of 3,592 runs since 2008 (254 horses). Strongest at trips under 6f (all codes): 13.4% from 605.
Hawk Wing (USA) 5% · 2–40
Progeny have won 8.5% of 4,330 runs since 2008 (330 horses).
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 15 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 1,422 · newest first

The latest 50 of 1,422 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 4 January 2005 to 10 January 2013.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP
10 Jan 13 Wolverhampton (AW) Gypsy Rider (GB)J: Luke Morris Coral.co.uk Mobile Casino Selling HandicapClass 6 · 6f · Standard · 10 ran 3rd 11/1
08 Jan 13 Wolverhampton (AW) Bidable (GB)J: Luke Morris Free Bet Bonanza Now At Bookmakers.co.uk HandicapClass 6 · 8.5f · Standard · 13 ran 11th 33/1
08 Jan 13 Wolverhampton (AW) David's Folly (IRE)J: Luke Morris Coral.co.uk Mobile Casino HandicapClass 6 · 16.5f · Standard · 5 ran 3rd 14/1
07 Jan 13 Wolverhampton (AW) Spring Secret (GB)J: Declan Cannon Get Free Bets With bookmakers.co.uk Handicap (Div 1)Class 6 · 12f · Standard · 10 ran 5th 9/1
07 Jan 13 Wolverhampton (AW) Corrib (IRE)J: Declan Cannon coral.co.uk HandicapClass 6 · 9.5f · Standard · 12 ran 7th 20/1
07 Jan 13 Wolverhampton (AW) Sir Bruno (FR)J: Declan Cannon Online Betting Offers At bookmakers.co.uk Apprentice HandicapClass 6 · 7f · Standard · 10 ran 7th 8/1
28 Dec 12 Wolverhampton (AW) David's Folly (IRE)J: Nicky Mackay 32 Bonus At 32Red.com HandicapClass 6 · 14f · Standard · 10 ran 10th 25/1
26 Dec 12 Wolverhampton (AW) Bidable (GB)J: Duran Fentiman Festive Spirit HandicapClass 6 · 9.5f · Standard · 11 ran 10th 33/1
26 Dec 12 Wolverhampton (AW) Corrib (IRE)J: Luke Morris Festive Spirit HandicapClass 6 · 9.5f · Standard · 11 ran 3rd 16/1
14 Dec 12 Wolverhampton (AW) Ifan (IRE)J: Luke Morris 32RedPoker.com Handicap (Div 2)Class 6 · 7f · Standard · 9 ran 2nd 13/2
14 Dec 12 Wolverhampton (AW) Sir Bruno (FR)J: Luke Morris 32RedPoker.com Handicap (Div 1)Class 6 · 7f · Standard · 11 ran 3rd 8/1
29 Nov 12 Kempton (AW) Sir Bruno (FR)J: Luke Morris 32RedBet.com HandicapClass 6 · 8f · Standard · 12 ran 6th 10/1
20 Nov 12 Southwell (AW) Spring Secret (GB)J: Luke Morris Book Seasons Restaurant At Southwell Racecourse Handicap (Div 2)Class 6 · 12f · Standard · 13 ran 5th 16/1
20 Nov 12 Southwell (AW) David's Folly (IRE)J: Raul Da Silva Book Seasons Restaurant At Southwell Racecourse Handicap (Div 1)Class 6 · 12f · Standard · 14 ran 4th 12/1
16 Nov 12 Wolverhampton (AW) Gypsy Rider (GB)J: Luke Morris 32RedBet.com Handicap (Div 1)Class 6 · 6f · Standard · 13 ran 10th 11/2
08 Nov 12 Wolverhampton (AW) Ifan (IRE)J: Luke Morris 32Red Casino Maiden StakesClass 5 · 7f · Standard · 11 ran 3rd 16/1
08 Nov 12 Wolverhampton (AW) Pelham Crescent (IRE)J: Luke Morris 32Red.com HandicapClass 5 · 14f · Standard · 9 ran 4th 10/1
06 Nov 12 Wolverhampton (AW) Corrib (IRE)J: Luke Morris 32 Bonus At 32Red.com Handicap (Div 2)Class 6 · 9.5f · Standard · 11 ran 3rd 20/1
06 Nov 12 Wolverhampton (AW) Gypsy Rider (GB)J: Luke Morris 32RedBet.com Handicap (Div 2)Class 6 · 7f · Standard · 11 ran 8th 6/1
31 Oct 12 Nottingham Corrib (IRE)J: Alice Mills Final Fortifurlong AJA Ladies' Grand Finale Handicap (Lady Amateur Riders) (Div 2)Class 6 · 10f · Soft · 12 ran 11th 25/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Bryn Palling's strike rate?
Bryn Palling has won 46 of 843 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 5.5% (as at 15 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Bryn Palling do best at?
Warwick by strike rate: 3 wins from 30 runners (10%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for Bryn Palling?
David Probert, with 228 runners since 2008 — 27% of the total. That pairing has won 18 (7.9%).
What is Bryn Palling's Fair A/E?
0.79, from 837 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%". Three sample sizes are reported and never blended: runs (n), the ROI basis (n at SP), and the fair-A/E basis (n with a computed fair probability).

Strike rate is wins over all runs (n). ROI is £1 level stakes at SP over runs with a parseable price (n at SP). Fair A/E is wins over margin-stripped market expectation, over runs with a computed fair probability (n fair). The three Ns can legitimately differ and are always shown. Figures as at 15 October 2026, computed from our own results archive (2005 onwards; aggregates from 2008).