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Trainer profile

Tom Tate

219 runners in the last 5 seasons · 17 individual horses
As at 22 Oct 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily
Last runner 14 days ago 99% of runners on the flat
Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)
from 1 Jan 2022
15–219
Wins / Runs
6.8%
Strike rate
n=219
49 (22%)
Placed
0.78
Fair A/E
n=217 · 0.65 incl. margin
−152.59
£1 level stake
n=219 at SP · −69.7%
£148k
Prize money (window)
Strike by season
11.1%
KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 40 runners a season, almost all on the flat, winning with 7% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 0.78).

Deterministic profile computed from 219 archived runs (last 5 seasons) · updated 22 Oct 2026
The read

Horses returning fresh after 61+ days have been a poor signal at 2.4% (n=41, Fair A/E 0.36). The yard also reads well in Class 6 (11.7%, n=94). The record reads poorly in Class 5 — 1.4% over 70 runners, 5.4pts below the baseline. 7 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the yard has landed: the Betfred Cambridgeshire at Newmarket (Sep 2011, £99,600). The stable star of the record: Equiano Springs (GB) — 13 wins from 71 runs for the yard.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 6.8% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
2.4%−4.4
n=41 · A/E 0.36 · £1 −38.25
New recruits · first run for the yard
0%−6.8
n=1 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −1.00
Debutants · first career start
0%−6.8
n=7 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −7.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
0%−6.8
n=2 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −2.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
0%−6.8
n=2 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −2.00
When favourite
53.3%
n=15 · A/E 1.97 · £1 +11.66
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
0%−6.8
n=6 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −6.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 6.8% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline
With Andrew Elliott 0% vs 6.8% · n=31
In Class 5 1.4% vs 6.8% · n=70
In Class 6 11.7% vs 6.8% · n=94
With C&D winners 11.5% vs 6.8% · n=52
On Standard (AW) going 9.6% vs 6.8% · n=104
At Newcastle (AW) 9.6% vs 6.8% · n=52
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1
Flat 216 15 6.9% −149.59
Hurdle 2 0 0% −2.00
NH Flat 1 0 0% −1.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1
Standard (AW) 104 10 9.6% −61.67
Good to Firm 40 3 7.5% −26.25
Good 34 2 5.9% −23.67
Good to Soft 19 0 0% −19.00
Soft 14 0 0% −14.00
Heavy 8 0 0% −8.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1
Newcastle (AW) 52 5 9.6% −38.50
Southwell (AW) 39 3 7.7% −19.00
Redcar 17 0 0% −17.00
Wolverhampton (AW) 13 2 15.4% −4.17
York 13 0 0% −13.00
Haydock 12 0 0% −12.00
Doncaster 10 0 0% −10.00
Nottingham 9 1 11.1% −4.00
Newmarket 9 2 22.2% +2.50
Wetherby 8 1 12.5% −4.75
Thirsk 8 0 0% −8.00
Beverley 8 0 0% −8.00
Ripon 6 0 0% −6.00
Newmarket 5 1 20% −0.67
Catterick 4 0 0% −4.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1
Class 6 94 11 11.7% −45.42
Class 5 70 1 1.4% −68.00
Class 4 44 3 6.8% −28.17
Class 3 6 0 0% −6.00
Class 2 5 0 0% −5.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite 20 8 40% 1.64 +6.66
2nd–3rd fav 43 5 11.6% 0.78 −16.75
4th–6th fav 56 2 3.6% 0.42 −42.50
7th+ in betting 100 0 0% 0.00 −100.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first
HorseRWPlLast ran
Bayraat (GB) 33 2 12 14 Aug 26
Have You A Minute (GB) 30 3 9 8 Oct 26
Equiano Springs (GB) 27 3 8 8 Aug 25
Brunello Breeze (GB)then Liam Bailey 22 3 6 30 May 25
Cable Beach (GB) 17 1 3 2 Oct 26
Tiger Trap (GB) 16 0 0 2 Jan 25
Candy Eye (GB) 12 0 1 24 Sep 24
Freewheelin (GB)then John Norton 12 1 4 13 Jun 23
Contorno (GB) 11 2 2 25 Jun 26
Lettuce Leaf (GB) 9 0 1 9 May 25
Young Tiger (GB) 7 0 1 22 Aug 22
Maybe Soon (IRE) 5 0 0 18 May 26
All 17 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 17 horses listed, 3 arrived from another yard in our archive; 14 had their first archived run for this yard.

3 have since run for another yard; 14 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

When the yard fires

strike by month, 5 seasons
JFMAMJJASOND
1711140094834157
A flat yard: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first
Go-to riderAndrew Elliott
14% of all rides
0% SR · A/E 0.00
RiderRWSR£1
Andrew Elliott 31 0 0% −31.00
Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2005→
216
Archived wins
7
Pattern / graded wins
£2.69m
Prize money
2008
Best season · 25 wins
In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Prince Of Johanne (IRE) — Betfred Cambridgeshire (Heritage Handicap) Newmarket · Sep 2011 · Class 2
£99,600
Prince Of Johanne (IRE) — Royal Hunt Cup (Heritage Handicap) (Str) Ascot · Jun 2012 · Class 2
£77,813
Welsh Emperor (IRE) — Sportsman Newspaper Hungerford Stakes (Group 2) Newbury · Aug 2006 · Group 2
£51,102
Notable horses
Equiano Springs (GB) Suits Me (GB) Young Tiger (GB) Welsh Emperor (IRE) Celtic Sultan (IRE) Empress Ali (IRE)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip
Heeraat (IRE) 6.1% · 2–33
Progeny have won 8% of 2,994 runs since 2008 (194 horses).
Muhaarar (GB) 10% · 3–30
Progeny have won 11.6% of 4,786 runs since 2008 (412 horses).
Equiano (FR) 11.1% · 3–27
Progeny have won 9.1% of 7,539 runs since 2008 (549 horses).
Bated Breath (GB) 13.6% · 3–22
Progeny have won 10.8% of 8,133 runs since 2008 (670 horses). Weakest on Soft going: 7.7% from 846.
Cable Bay (IRE) 5.9% · 1–17
Progeny have won 9.9% of 3,712 runs since 2008 (243 horses). Strongest at trips under 6f (all codes): 13.9% from 641. Weakest over 1m2f – 1m4f (all codes): 5.5% from 290.
Massaat (IRE) 0% · 0–16
Progeny have won 7.8% of 1,203 runs since 2008 (124 horses). Weakest on Good to Soft going: 4.5% from 112. Weakest over 1m2f – 1m4f (all codes): 3.8% from 131.
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 22 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 2,055 · newest first

The latest 50 of 2,055 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 17 January 2005 to 8 October 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP
08 Oct 26 Southwell (AW) Have You A Minute (GB)J: Saffie Osborne Download The Raceday Ready App Handicap StakesClass 6 · 8f · Standard · 12 ran 4th 9/2
02 Oct 26 Newcastle (AW) Cable Beach (GB)J: Andrew Elliott Armah Switchgear Handicap StakesClass 6 · 7f · Standard · 13 ran 4th 7/1
15 Sep 26 Wolverhampton (AW) Have You A Minute (GB)J: Josephine Gordon Cavani Style & Speed Handicap StakesClass 6 · 9.5f · Standard · 12 ran 3rd 16/1
27 Aug 26 Southwell (AW) Cable Beach (GB)J: Clifford Lee Download The Raceday Ready App Handicap Stakes (Div I)Class 6 · 7f · Standard · 10 ran 2nd 3/1
16 Aug 26 Southwell (AW) Have You A Minute (GB)J: Hector Crouch Fraser Plus Designer Outlet East Midlands Handicap StakesClass 6 · 8f · Standard · 13 ran 2nd 11/1
14 Aug 26 Newmarket (July) Bayraat (GB)J: Rob Hornby Maritime Cargo Sts Container Storage Solutions Handicap StakesClass 5 · 6f · Good To Firm · 12 ran 9th 18/1
25 Jul 26 York Bayraat (GB)J: Caoilin Quinn Sky Bet "Jump Jockeys' Nunthorpe" Handicap Stakes (To Be Ridden By Professional Jump Jockeys)Class 4 · 5f · Good To Firm · 17 ran 12th 16/1
09 Jul 26 Doncaster Bayraat (GB)J: Mr Eireann Cagney Betfred Follow Us On X Amateur Jockeys' HandicapClass 5 · 5.5f · Good To Firm · 10 ran 2nd 4/1J
25 Jun 26 Newcastle (AW) Cable Beach (GB)J: Robert Havlin Fly From Newcastle Airport HandicapClass 6 · 8f · Standard To Slow · 13 ran 4th 11/2
25 Jun 26 Newcastle (AW) Contorno (GB)J: Joanna Mason JenningsBet In Allerdene HandicapClass 5 · 5f · Standard To Slow · 12 ran 10th 12/1
16 Jun 26 Wolverhampton (AW) Have You A Minute (GB)J: Sean D Bowen Cavani Modern Gentleman HandicapClass 5 · 9.5f · Standard · 11 ran 9th 40/1
15 Jun 26 Wetherby Bayraat (GB)J: Clifford Lee William Hill Extra Places Every Day Handicap (Div 1)Class 6 · 5.5f · Good To Firm · 9 ran 1st 9/4
02 Jun 26 Newcastle (AW) Cable Beach (GB)J: Paul Mulrennan Penny Hotels HandicapClass 6 · 8f · Standard · 13 ran 7th 17/2
26 May 26 Redcar Bayraat (GB)J: Mr Eireann Cagney Watch Race Replays On Racing TV Amateur Jockeys' HandicapClass 6 · 6f · Good To Firm · 12 ran 2nd 10/3F
18 May 26 Redcar Maybe Soon (IRE)J: Andrew Elliott racingtv.com Handicap (Div 2)Class 6 · 7f · Good · 9 ran 8th 6/1
09 May 26 Nottingham Contorno (GB)J: Paul Mulrennan 9 Racedays At Nottingham Racecourse HandicapClass 6 · 5f · Good · 9 ran 8th 12/1
07 May 26 Redcar Bayraat (GB)J: Daniel Tudhope Download The Raceday Ready App Handicap (Div 2)Class 6 · 6f · Good · 11 ran 2nd 9/2
25 Apr 26 Ripon Contorno (GB)J: Sean D Bowen Watch Sky Sports Racing In HD HandicapClass 5 · 6f · Good · 10 ran 9th 20/1
08 Apr 26 Catterick Contorno (GB)J: Daniel Tudhope Download The Raceday Ready App HandicapClass 5 · 5f · Good · 10 ran 5th 6/1
07 Apr 26 Southwell (AW) Maybe Soon (IRE)J: Andrew Elliott Download The At The Races App Fillies' HandicapClass 5 · 7f · Standard · 9 ran 8th 28/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Tom Tate's strike rate?
Tom Tate has won 15 of 219 runners since 2022, a strike rate of 6.8% (as at 22 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Tom Tate do best at?
Newcastle (AW) by strike rate: 5 wins from 52 runners (9.6%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
What is Tom Tate's Fair A/E?
0.78, from 217 runners with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%". Three sample sizes are reported and never blended: runs (n), the ROI basis (n at SP), and the fair-A/E basis (n with a computed fair probability).

Strike rate is wins over all runs (n). ROI is £1 level stakes at SP over runs with a parseable price (n at SP). Fair A/E is wins over margin-stripped market expectation, over runs with a computed fair probability (n fair). The three Ns can legitimately differ and are always shown. Figures as at 22 October 2026, computed from our own results archive (2005 onwards; aggregates from 2008).