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Jockey profile

Mark Flanagan

168 rides in the lifetime window · 46 individual horses
As at 28 Oct 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily
Last ride Aug 2019 96% of rides over jumps
Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)
No rides in the last 5 seasons — showing the lifetime record, from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it.
16–168
Wins / Runs
9.5%
Strike rate
n=168
46 (27%)
Placed
1.33
Fair A/E
n=168 · 1.04 incl. margin
−61.13
£1 level stake
n=168 at SP · −36.4%
£183k
Prize money (window)
Strike by season
20%
KTB Rider Profile

Rode around 10 times a season, almost all over hurdles and fences, winning on 10% of them — beating the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 1.33). Rode mostly for Gerard Keane — 61% of rides in the window.

Deterministic profile computed from 168 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 28 Oct 2026
KTB at a glance Gerard Keane: 7.8% from 103
The read

First rides on a horse have been a poor signal at 2.3% (n=44, Fair A/E 0.45). Gerard Keane supplied 61% of the rides and matches the rider's average almost exactly (7.8%, A/E 1.23) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. The record read poorly on Soft going — 5.1% over 59 rides, 4.4pts below the baseline. The market has consistently overbet the rider over 1m5f – 2m: Fair A/E 0.84 across 80 rides (6.3% strike, −49.75 to a £1 stake) — runners there underperformed what the price implied. The standout partner of the record was Effernock Lad (IRE) — 6 wins from 37 rides together.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Riding patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 9.5% baseline
First ride on the horse · first captured pairing
2.3%−7.2
n=44 · A/E 0.45 · £1 −36.00
Last-time-out winners · previous run was a win
15.4%+5.9
n=13 · A/E 1.35 · £1 −6.00
Fresh horses · 61+ days off
2.8%−6.7
n=36 · A/E 0.55 · £1 −32.75
When favourite
37.5%
n=8 · A/E 1.55 · £1 +1.62
Claiming rides · riding with a claim
8.7%−0.8
n=161 · A/E 1.21 · £1 −73.13
Big fields · 14+ runners
6.3%−3.2
n=96 · A/E 1.04 · £1 −59.13
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
0%−9.5
n=4 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −4.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 9.5% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline
With horses switching code 2.3% vs 9.5% · n=44
On first rides for the horse 2.3% vs 9.5% · n=44
With Thomas Gibney 17.1% vs 9.5% · n=35
On Soft going 5.1% vs 9.5% · n=59
Over 1m5f – 2m 6.3% vs 9.5% · n=80
Off a 8-14-day break 12.2% vs 9.5% · n=41
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1
Hurdle 142 13 9.2% −58.13
Chase 17 3 17.6% +6.00
Flat 7 0 0% −7.00
NH Flat 2 0 0% −2.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1
Good 65 7 10.8% −12.38
Soft 59 3 5.1% −39.25
Heavy 26 3 11.5% −8.00
Good to Soft 14 2 14.3% −5.50
Good to Firm 4 1 25% +4.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1
Navan 23 2 8.7% −11.50
Downpatrick 16 4 25% +17.50
Sligo 13 2 15.4% −3.50
Fairyhouse 11 0 0% −11.00
Ballinrobe 9 1 11.1% +1.00
Kilbeggan 9 0 0% −9.00
Punchestown 9 0 0% −9.00
Down Royal 9 0 0% −9.00
Bellewstown 9 2 22.2% +10.00
Gowran Park 6 0 0% −6.00
Limerick 6 0 0% −6.00
Naas 6 1 16.7% −0.50
Clonmel 6 0 0% −6.00
Leopardstown 5 0 0% −5.00
Thurles 5 0 0% −5.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1
Class 1 4 0 0% −4.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite 12 5 41.7% 1.95 +5.87
2nd–3rd fav 32 7 21.9% 1.77 +18.00
4th–6th fav 50 4 8% 1.11 −11.00
7th+ in betting 74 0 0% 0.00 −74.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Jumping record

completion over obstacles · same window as header
91.2% completed · 159 obstacle rides (chases & hurdles)
CodeRCompFURPUBDOth
Chase 17 76.5% 0 1 3 0 0
Hurdle 142 93% 2 2 6 0 0
Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.

Horses ridden

same window as header · most-raced first
HorseRWPlLast ran
Effernock Lad (IRE) 37 6 14 11 Aug 19
Aurora's Dream (IRE) 19 1 4 12 Oct 17
Rapid Fritz (IRE) 10 0 3 29 May 17
To Choose (IRE) 8 1 2 15 Jun 16
The Nutcracker (IRE) 6 1 3 15 Sep 16
Stoughan Cross (IRE) 5 0 2 27 Dec 17
Alice's Star (IRE) 5 0 0 18 Jun 17
Ah Littleluck (IRE) 5 3 3 27 Nov 16
The Fox Tully (IRE) 5 0 2 14 Jun 16
The Black Devil (IRE) 5 0 0 6 Sep 14
Crowded Room (IRE) 4 0 2 20 Apr 16
Fearnwood Girl (IRE) 4 0 0 18 Aug 15
All 46 horses ridden in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

By month

strike by month, lifetime
JFMAMJJASOND
00130216101800610
A jumps rider: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Riding for

same window · biggest samples first
Main yardGerard Keane
61% of all rides
7.8% SR · A/E 1.23
TrainerRWSR£1
Gerard Keane 103 8 7.8% −40.00
Thomas Gibney 35 6 17.1% −4.13
Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2005→
18
Archived wins
£210k
Prize money
2016
Best season · 10 wins
In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
The Nutcracker (IRE) — Breaffy House Resort Mares Handicap Hurdle Ballinrobe · May 2016
£18,450
Ah Littleluck (IRE) — Brenda Anderson Memorial Cup Rated Novice Hurdle Sligo · May 2016
£10,148
Ah Littleluck (IRE) — Old Weir Handicap Hurdle Listowel · Jun 2016
£9,840
Notable horses
Effernock Lad (IRE) Ah Littleluck (IRE) Aurora's Dream (IRE) To Choose (IRE) The Nutcracker (IRE) Waterloo Chateau (IRE)

Sires of the horses ridden

progeny record · win % by ground and trip
Generous (IRE) 16.2% · 6–37
Progeny have won 10.7% of 3,332 runs since 2008 (251 horses).
Kutub (IRE) 3.4% · 1–29
Progeny have won 9.2% of 1,003 runs since 2008 (86 horses).
Choisir (AUS) 12.5% · 1–8
Progeny have won 10.7% of 5,779 runs since 2008 (392 horses).
Antonius Pius (USA) 16.7% · 1–6
Progeny have won 8.1% of 3,236 runs since 2008 (195 horses). Weakest on Good to Soft going: 5% from 339.
Court Cave (IRE) 0% · 0–5
Progeny have won 10.1% of 7,942 runs since 2008 (551 horses). Weakest on Heavy going: 6.8% from 937.
Kheleyf (USA) 0% · 0–5
Progeny have won 8.7% of 10,546 runs since 2008 (676 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 12.2% from 131. Weakest over 1m2f – 1m4f (all codes): 5.6% from 880.
Top line: the rider's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 28 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 250 · newest first

The latest 50 of 250 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 13 January 2005 to 11 August 2019.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP
11 Aug 19 Downpatrick Effernock Lad (IRE)T: Gerard Keane A J C Group, Newcastle Handicap Hurdle (80-95)19f · Good To Yielding · 11 ran 1st 9/2
08 Aug 19 Sligo Effernock Lad (IRE)T: Gerard Keane Carlsberg Handicap Hurdle (80-102)17f · Good · 10 ran 7th 7/1
14 Apr 19 Tramore Effernock Lad (IRE)T: Gerard Keane Kasbar Waterford At Tramore Racecourse Handicap Chase (0-109)16f · Heavy · 5 ran 3rd 4/1
18 Mar 19 Navan Effernock Lad (IRE)T: Gerard Keane toals.com Handicap Chase17f · Soft · 11 ran 2nd 7/1
04 Mar 19 Leopardstown Effernock Lad (IRE)T: Gerard Keane Leopardstown May Family Day Handicap Hurdle (80-109)16f · Soft · 15 ran 5th 10/1
26 Dec 18 Down Royal Effernock Lad (IRE)T: Gerard Keane Adare Manor Opportunity Handicap Hurdle (80-102)16.5f · Yielding · 17 ran 11th 7/1
13 Oct 18 Fairyhouse Effernock Lad (IRE)T: Gerard Keane Easter Festival 2019 Handicap Hurdle (80-109)16f · Good · 13 ran 3rd 8/1
17 Sep 18 Galway Effernock Lad (IRE)T: Gerard Keane Anglo Printers 1890 624 624 Handicap Hurdle (80-109)16.5f · Soft · 16 ran 4th 8/1
24 Aug 18 Kilbeggan Effernock Lad (IRE)T: Gerard Keane Irish Stallion Farms EBF Handicap Hurdle (80-109)16f · Good · 14 ran 11th 25/1
23 Mar 18 Navan Effernock Lad (IRE)T: Gerard Keane Toals.com Bookmakers Daily Online Specials Handicap Chase17f · Heavy · 10 ran PU 14/1
27 Jan 18 Fairyhouse Effernock Lad (IRE)T: Gerard Keane Fairyhouse Racecourse Members Handicap Chase17f · Heavy · 9 ran 4th 9/2
27 Dec 17 Limerick Stoughan Cross (IRE)T: Thomas Gibney Tim Duggan Memorial Handicap Chase (0-145) (Grade B)19.5f · Heavy · 15 ran PU 20/1
17 Dec 17 Navan Effernock Lad (IRE)T: Gerard Keane Navanadventuresports.ie Handicap Chase17f · Heavy · 12 ran 4th 12/1
25 Nov 17 Gowran Park Effernock Lad (IRE)T: Gerard Keane Irish Racing Yearbook Handicap Chase16f · Heavy · 8 ran 3rd 9/1
09 Nov 17 Thurles Effernock Lad (IRE)T: Gerard Keane Two-mile Borris Handicap Hurdle (80-109)16f · Yielding · 18 ran 11th 20/1
12 Oct 17 Thurles Aurora's Dream (IRE)T: Gerard Keane Templemore Handicap Hurdle (80-95) (Div 1)16f · Good To Yielding · 18 ran 10th 16/1
30 Sep 17 Gowran Park Effernock Lad (IRE)T: Gerard Keane Thomastown Handicap Hurdle (80-109)16f · Soft To Heavy · 13 ran 6th 6/1
18 Sep 17 Galway Effernock Lad (IRE)T: Gerard Keane Anglo Printers 1890 624 624 Handicap Hurdle (80-109)16.5f · Soft · 15 ran 9th 11/1
28 Aug 17 Downpatrick Aurora's Dream (IRE)T: Gerard Keane Ulster Carpets Handicap Hurdle (80-95)19f · Yielding · 13 ran 4th 8/1
22 Aug 17 Sligo Effernock Lad (IRE)T: Gerard Keane Guinness Handicap Hurdle (80-102)16f · Soft To Heavy · 12 ran 2nd 8/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Mark Flanagan's strike rate?
Mark Flanagan has won 16 of 168 rides since 2008, a strike rate of 9.5% (as at 28 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which yard does Mark Flanagan ride most for?
Gerard Keane, with 103 rides since 2008 — 61% of the total. That pairing has won 8 (7.8%).
What is Mark Flanagan's Fair A/E?
1.33, from 168 rides with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%". Three sample sizes are reported and never blended: runs (n), the ROI basis (n at SP), and the fair-A/E basis (n with a computed fair probability).

Strike rate is wins over all runs (n). ROI is £1 level stakes at SP over runs with a parseable price (n at SP). Fair A/E is wins over margin-stripped market expectation, over runs with a computed fair probability (n fair). The three Ns can legitimately differ and are always shown. Figures as at 28 October 2026, computed from our own results archive (2005 onwards; aggregates from 2008).