Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
KTB Yard Profile
Sends out around 20 runners a season, across both codes, winning with 4% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 0.74).
Deterministic profile computed from 115 archived runs (last 5 seasons) · updated 20 Oct 2026
The read
The yard also reads well in Flat races (8.9%, n=45) and off a 15-30-day break (7.1%, n=42). The record reads poorly in Hurdle races — 0% over 58 runners, 3.5pts below the baseline.
Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.
Yard patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 3.5% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
0%−3.5
n=29 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −29.00
New recruits · first run for the yard
0%−3.5
n=9 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −9.00
Debutants · first career start
0%−3.5
n=5 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −5.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
0%−3.5
n=4 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −4.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
0%−3.5
n=5 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −5.00
When favourite
50%
n=6 · A/E 2.29 · £1 +4.38
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
1.9%−1.6
n=54 · A/E 0.38 · £1 −51.12
Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 3.5% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.
Notable angles
vs their own baseline
In Flat races8.9% vs 3.5% · n=45
In Hurdle races0% vs 3.5% · n=58
Off a 15-30-day break7.1% vs 3.5% · n=42
On Good going6.3% vs 3.5% · n=32
With a new jockey booking5.2% vs 3.5% · n=58 · A/E 1.53
With claiming riders up1.9% vs 3.5% · n=54 · A/E 0.38
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.
Record by conditions
same window as header
Race type
TypeRWSR£1
Hurdle5800%−58.00
Flat4548.9%−27.62
Chase1100%−11.00
NH Flat100%−1.00
Going
GoingRWSR£1
Soft3612.8%−33.12
Good3226.3%−21.00
Heavy1700%−17.00
Good to Soft1600%−16.00
Standard (AW)1417.1%−10.50
Courses
CourseRWSR£1
Dundalk (AW)1417.1%−10.50
Roscommon1100%−11.00
Galway800%−8.00
Limerick700%−7.00
Thurles700%−7.00
Fairyhouse700%−7.00
Ballinrobe7114.3%−4.12
Navan500%−5.00
Kilbeggan500%−5.00
Tramore500%−5.00
Sligo500%−5.00
Gowran Park500%−5.00
Down Royal400%−4.00
Tipperary4125%+0.00
Leopardstown3133.3%+4.00
Market position
In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite6350%2.29+4.38
2nd–3rd fav800%0.00−8.00
4th–6th fav1915.3%0.78−12.00
7th+ in betting8200%0.00−82.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.
Distance
DistanceRWSR£1
1m5f – 2m4712.1%−40.00
1m2f – 1m4f26311.5%−15.62
2m5f – 3m1500%−15.00
2m1f – 2m4f1300%−13.00
1m – 1m1f900%−9.00
6f – 7f400%−4.00
Over 3m100%−1.00
By season
By seasonRWSR£1
20224400%−44.00
20233438.8%−23.62
20242214.5%−15.00
20251500%−15.00
Handicaps
HandicapsRWSR£1
Handicaps7833.8%−64.12
Field size
Field sizeRWSR£1
14-16 runners4524.4%−38.12
11-13 runners4012.5%−36.50
17+ runners1800%−18.00
8-10 runners6116.7%+1.00
5-7 runners500%−5.00
2-4 runners100%−1.00
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
All 19 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next
Of the 19 horses listed, 11 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from Adrian Brendan Joyce (2) and W McCreery (2); 8 had their first archived run for this yard.
9 have since run for another yard, most often for Ciaran Murphy (4) and Denis Gerard Hogan (2); 10 have no later run for another yard in our archive.
Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.
When the yard fires
strike by month, 5 seasons
JFMAMJJASOND
0000081500500
Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.
This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Mysticaltou (IRE) — Ciaran Russell Auto Sales, Downpatrick Mares Handicap Hurdle Downpatrick · May 2017
Progeny have won 9.7% of 2,082 runs since 2008 (217 horses). Weakest on Heavy going: 5.2% from 155.
Finsceal Fior (IRE)21.4% · 3–14
Progeny have won 7.6% of 564 runs since 2008 (47 horses). Strongest on Soft going: 10.6% from 132. Strongest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 11.4% from 140.
Progeny have won 11.2% of 5,636 runs since 2008 (563 horses). Weakest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 6.5% from 108.
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 20 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.
The record
latest 50 of 483 · newest first
The latest 50 of 483 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 29 September 2007 to 4 November 2025.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
What is Shane Ryder's strike rate?
Shane Ryder has won 4 of 115 runners since 2022, a strike rate of 3.5% (as at 20 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
What is Shane Ryder's Fair A/E?
0.74, from 115 runners with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Shane Ryder·SR 3.5%·A/E 0.74
KTB
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