Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
Riding patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 9.3% baseline
First ride on the horse · first captured pairing
11.5%+2.2
n=26 · A/E 1.15 · £1 −6.17
Last-time-out winners · previous run was a win
0%−9.3
n=3 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −3.00
Fresh horses · 61+ days off
0%−9.3
n=5 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −5.00
When favourite
0%
n=1 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −1.00
Claiming rides · riding with a claim
7.5%−1.8
n=40 · A/E 0.80 · £1 −18.67
Big fields · 14+ runners
0%−9.3
n=4 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −4.00
Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 9.3% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.
Notable angles
This filter uses derived form angles computed for 60.7% of the archive so far (as at 9 Nov 2026); the sample will grow as sequencing completes.
Record by conditions
same window as header
Race type
TypeRWSR£1
Hurdle29413.8%−3.17
Chase1000%−10.00
Flat300%−3.00
NH Flat100%−1.00
Going
GoingRWSR£1
Good to Soft1417.1%−8.00
Good1317.7%−8.67
Soft9222.2%+6.50
Good to Firm300%−3.00
Heavy300%−3.00
Standard (AW)100%−1.00
Courses
CourseRWSR£1
Newbury500%−5.00
Haydock3133.3%+3.00
Market Rasen200%−2.00
Fakenham200%−2.00
Kempton200%−2.00
Warwick2150%+2.33
Chepstow200%−2.00
Cheltenham200%−2.00
Fontwell100%−1.00
Doncaster100%−1.00
Auteuil (FR)100%−1.00
Fontainebleau (FR)11100%+3.50
Toulouse (FR)100%−1.00
Hereford100%−1.00
Huntingdon100%−1.00
Class
ClassRWSR£1
Class 31417.1%−8.00
Class 41119.1%+0.00
Class 51119.1%−6.67
Class 2400%−4.00
Class 6200%−2.00
Market position
In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite200%0.00−2.00
2nd–3rd fav12325%1.54+2.83
4th–6th fav1516.7%0.79−4.00
7th+ in betting1400%0.00−14.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.
Distance
DistanceRWSR£1
2m1f – 2m4f1218.3%−7.50
2m5f – 3m1119.1%+0.00
1m5f – 2m10110%−4.00
Over 3m7114.3%−2.67
1m2f – 1m4f100%−1.00
6f – 7f100%−1.00
1m – 1m1f100%−1.00
By season
By seasonRWSR£1
2022200%−2.00
20234125%+7.00
2024700%−7.00
20251400%−14.00
202616318.8%−1.17
Handicaps
HandicapsRWSR£1
Handicaps3937.7%−17.67
Field size
Field sizeRWSR£1
8-10 runners16425%+9.83
5-7 runners1100%−11.00
11-13 runners1000%−10.00
17+ runners300%−3.00
2-4 runners200%−2.00
14-16 runners100%−1.00
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.
All 26 horses ridden in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Current form
significance-gated
Last 14 days
Small sample
1 from 1
Only 1 rides in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.
By month
strike by month, 5 seasons
JFMAMJJASOND
25000·500·00208
A jumps rider: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.
Progeny have won 13.6% of 2,255 runs since 2016 (256 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 10.3% from 155.
Top line: the rider's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 9 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.
The record
all 48 archived runs · newest first
Every one of Megan Fox's 48 archived rides, from 23 August 2019 to 6 November 2026, newest first — 4 winners among them.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
What is Megan Fox's strike rate?
Megan Fox has won 4 of 43 rides since 2022, a strike rate of 9.3% (as at 9 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Is Megan Fox in form?
Too few rides in the last 14 days to read — 1 ride, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is Megan Fox's Fair A/E?
0.94, from 43 rides with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Megan Fox·SR 9.3%·A/E 0.94
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