What is Michael Heard's strike rate?

Michael Heard has won 33 of 404 rides since 2008, a strike rate of 8.2% (as at 28 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does Michael Heard do best at?

Taunton by strike rate: 9 wins from 39 rides (23.1%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Which yard does Michael Heard ride most for?

David Pipe, with 217 rides since 2008 — 54% of the total. That pairing has won 25 (11.5%).

What is Michael Heard's Fair A/E?

0.88, from 403 rides with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Jockey profile

Michael Heard

404 rides in the lifetime window · 189 individual horses

As at 28 Oct 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Last ride Mar 2018 100% of rides over jumps

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2010→)

No rides in the last 5 seasons — showing the lifetime record, from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it.

33–404

Wins / Runs

8.2%

Strike rate

n=404

84 (21%)

Placed

0.88

Fair A/E

n=403 · 0.76 incl. margin

−182.50

£1 level stake

n=404 at SP · −45.2%

£255k

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

5.3%

KTB Rider Profile

Rode around 40 times a season, almost all over hurdles and fences, winning on 8% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 0.88). Riding last-time-out winners the record reads 19% (42 rides). Rode mostly for David Pipe — 54% of rides in the window.

Deterministic profile computed from 404 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 28 Oct 2026

KTB at a glance Fired Feb–Mar 30% when favourite David Pipe: 11.5% from 217 LTO winners: 19% Rode the favourite in 7% of races

The read

The record is strongest at Taunton (23.1%, n=39), clear of the rider's 8.2% baseline. It is weakest at Newton Abbot (2.5% over 40 rides) — the largest sample in the record, and the widest gap. Rides on last-time-out winners have been a positive signal at 19% (n=42, Fair A/E 1.04), but horses returning fresh after 61+ days have been a poor signal at 1.4% (n=71, Fair A/E 0.26). David Pipe supplied 54% of the rides and edges the rider's average (11.5% vs 8.2%, A/E 1.04) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. The rider also read well on Good to Soft going (13.2%, n=76). The record read poorly off a break of 180+ days — 0% over 33 rides, 8.2pts below the baseline. Seasonally, the rider fired Feb–Mar.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Riding patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 8.2% baseline

First ride on the horse · first captured pairing

7.4%−0.8

n=189 · A/E 1.01 · £1 −94.55

Last-time-out winners · previous run was a win

19%+10.8

n=42 · A/E 1.04 · £1 −5.05

Fresh horses · 61+ days off

1.4%−6.8

n=71 · A/E 0.26 · £1 −63.00

When favourite

30%

n=30 · A/E 0.89 · £1 −6.00

Claiming rides · riding with a claim

8.1%−0.1

n=384 · A/E 0.86 · £1 −174.50

Big fields · 14+ runners

6.3%−1.9

n=80 · A/E 1.57 · £1 −25.00

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

0%−8.2

n=11 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −11.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 8.2% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

At Taunton 23.1% vs 8.2% · n=39

On last-time-out winners 19% vs 8.2% · n=42

Off a break of 180+ days 0% vs 8.2% · n=33

Beyond 3m 0% vs 8.2% · n=31

On Good to Soft going 13.2% vs 8.2% · n=76

At Newton Abbot 2.5% vs 8.2% · n=40

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1

Hurdle 281 27 9.6% −109.50

Chase 111 6 5.4% −61.00

NH Flat 12 0 0% −12.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Good 150 10 6.7% −71.75

Soft 97 6 6.2% −47.50

Good to Soft 76 10 13.2% −18.50

Good to Firm 42 3 7.1% −24.20

Heavy 39 4 10.3% −20.55

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Newton Abbot 40 1 2.5% −36.25

Taunton 39 9 23.1% +7.43

Exeter 35 4 11.4% +0.00

Worcester 28 3 10.7% −15.75

Chepstow 27 1 3.7% −22.00

Wincanton 26 0 0% −26.00

Cheltenham 24 0 0% −24.00

Uttoxeter 17 0 0% −17.00

Fontwell 16 1 6.3% −6.00

Ffos Las 13 0 0% −13.00

Warwick 12 2 16.7% +6.00

Towcester 11 1 9.1% −4.00

Stratford 10 0 0% −10.00

Ludlow 9 0 0% −9.00

Plumpton 9 0 0% −9.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 4 144 14 9.7% −58.07

Class 5 125 12 9.6% −57.43

Class 3 73 4 5.5% −47.00

Class 2 32 3 9.4% +10.00

Class 6 18 0 0% −18.00

Class 1 12 0 0% −12.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 32 10 31.3% 0.96 −1.00

2nd–3rd fav 69 11 15.9% 1.00 +3.00

4th–6th fav 127 9 7.1% 0.90 −50.50

7th+ in betting 176 3 1.7% 0.50 −134.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Jumping record

completion over obstacles · same window as header

71.7% completed · 392 obstacle rides (chases & hurdles)

CodeRCompFURPUBDOth

Chase 111 58.6% 2 5 37 1 1

Hurdle 281 76.9% 8 2 53 1 1

Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.

Horses ridden

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Lady Of Longstone (IRE) 27 3 8 29 Nov 17

My Brother Sylvest (GB) 13 2 5 15 May 17

Skylander (IRE) 12 2 5 1 Nov 16

Arkadios (FR) 9 0 0 8 Jun 17

Rathealy (IRE) 9 2 5 31 Mar 17

Follow The Tracks (IRE) 8 1 3 1 Mar 17

Hardtorock (IRE) 7 1 2 19 Nov 17

Midnight Dove (GB) 7 0 1 16 May 15

Qalinas (FR) 7 2 4 30 Jan 15

Byron Blue (IRE) 6 0 2 30 Nov 16

Bygones Sovereign (IRE) 6 3 3 9 Apr 15

Party Girls (FR) 6 1 1 9 Oct 14

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 189 horses ridden in this window — each ran at least 2 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

By month

strike by month, lifetime

JFMAMJJASOND

41314950018510014

A jumps rider: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Riding for

same window · biggest samples first

Main yardDavid Pipe

54% of all rides
11.5% SR · A/E 1.04

TrainerRWSR£1

David Pipe 217 25 11.5% −56.00

Brian Barr 46 2 4.3% −34.50

Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2010→

Archived wins

£255k

Prize money

2015

Best season · 13 wins

Lady Of Longstone (IRE) — ApolloBet Weekly Golf Refunds Challenger Mares' Hurdle Series Final (Handicap) Haydock · Mar 2016 · Class 2

£30,950

Bygones Sovereign (IRE) — Betfair Home Of The Price Rush Handicap Hurdle Newbury · Feb 2015 · Class 2

£12,512

Bygones Sovereign (IRE) — Pertemps Network Handicap Hurdle (series Qualifier) Haydock · Feb 2015 · Class 2

£12,021

Notable horses

Lady Of Longstone (IRE) Bygones Sovereign (IRE) My Brother Sylvest (GB) Skylander (IRE) Rathealy (IRE) Qalinas (FR)

Sires of the horses ridden

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Beneficial (GB) 9.7% · 3–31

Progeny have won 10.4% of 17,044 runs since 2008 (1,155 horses).

Flemensfirth (USA) 12.5% · 2–16

Progeny have won 11.9% of 17,282 runs since 2008 (1,594 horses).

Bach (IRE) 13.3% · 2–15

Progeny have won 7.8% of 2,289 runs since 2008 (240 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 12.7% from 244.

Milan (GB) 8.3% · 1–12

Progeny have won 11.3% of 16,860 runs since 2008 (1,463 horses).

Old Vic (GB) 27.3% · 3–11

Progeny have won 11.7% of 6,916 runs since 2008 (630 horses).

Baltic King (GB) 22.2% · 2–9

Progeny have won 9.7% of 1,458 runs since 2008 (93 horses). Weakest on Soft going: 4.8% from 147. Weakest over 1m – 1m1f (all codes): 6.3% from 254.

Top line: the rider's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 28 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 404 · newest first

The latest 50 of 404 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 6 May 2010 to 29 March 2018.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

29 Mar 18 Towcester Just Midas (IRE)T: David Pipe Visit Star Sports In Mayfair Maiden NH Flat Race (Conditionals/Amateurs)Class 5 · 15.5f · Heavy · 11 ran 7th 12/1

26 Mar 18 Taunton Delface (FR)T: David Pipe Jackson-stops Taunton Handicap HurdleClass 4 · 16.5f · Soft · 9 ran 2nd 7/1

16 Mar 18 Cheltenham Mr Big Shot (IRE)T: David Pipe Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys' Handicap HurdleClass 2 · 20.5f · Soft · 23 ran 10th 14/1

15 Mar 18 Cheltenham Dell' Arca (IRE)T: David Pipe Pertemps Network Final Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3)Class 1 · 24f · Soft · 23 ran 18th 50/1

12 Mar 18 Taunton Mechelen (GB)T: David Pipe Family Easter Raceday 26th March Mares' Standard Open NH Flat RaceClass 5 · 16.5f · Heavy · 9 ran 2nd 12/1

12 Mar 18 Taunton Delface (FR)T: David Pipe Invest Southwest Handicap HurdleClass 4 · 19f · Heavy · 15 ran 5th 7/1

09 Mar 18 Leicester Bonds Conquest (GB)T: Seamus Mullins Leicestershire And Derbyshire Yeomanry Handicap ChaseClass 5 · 20f · Heavy · 6 ran 1st 5/1

24 Feb 18 Chepstow Trysor Ynys (IRE)T: John Flint Pertemps Education Maiden NH Flat Race (Conditionals And Amateurs)Class 5 · 16f · Soft · 12 ran 11th 50/1

24 Feb 18 Chepstow Bonds Conquest (GB)T: Seamus Mullins Pertemps Commercial Handicap ChaseClass 5 · 16f · Soft · 9 ran 4th 12/1

22 Feb 18 Huntingdon Blazing Glen (IRE)T: Alan Jessop Smarkets Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 20.5f · Soft · 14 ran PU 100/1

20 Feb 18 Taunton River Dun (GB)T: David Pipe C&S Electrical Wholesale Lewden Palazzoli Mares' Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 24f · Soft · 11 ran 4th 10/1

10 Feb 18 Newbury Skinflint (IRE)T: David Pipe Read Paul Nicholls Exclusively At Betfair Novices' HurdleClass 3 · 16.5f · Soft · 10 ran 6th 100/1

09 Feb 18 Kempton Tobacco Road (IRE)T: David Pipe Matchbook Racing Is Commission Free Conditional Jockeys' Handicap HurdleClass 4 · 16f · Soft · 13 ran 10th 16/1

04 Feb 18 Taunton River Dun (GB)T: David Pipe Bathwick Tyres Bridgwater Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Hurdle (Div 2)Class 5 · 19f · Soft · 9 ran PU 11/4F

04 Feb 18 Taunton Mister Drifter (IRE)T: David Pipe Bathwick Tyres Bridgwater Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Hurdle (Div 1)Class 5 · 19f · Soft · 9 ran 6th 5/1

19 Jan 18 Chepstow In The Tub (IRE)T: Carroll Gray Download The App At 188bet Handicap ChaseClass 5 · 19.5f · Heavy · 13 ran PU 33/1

17 Jan 18 Newbury Saint John Henry (FR)T: David Pipe Betfred 'Treble Odds On All Lucky 15's' Handicap Chase (For The Harwell Trophy)Class 3 · 23.5f · Soft · 10 ran PU 16/1

12 Jan 18 Huntingdon Max Milano (IRE)T: Alan Jessop Smarkets Conditional Jockeys' Handicap HurdleClass 4 · 19.5f · Soft · 10 ran PU 150/1

06 Jan 18 Wincanton Taj Badalandabad (IRE)T: David Pipe Smarkets Handicap HurdleClass 3 · 21.5f · Heavy · 12 ran PU 9/1

31 Dec 17 Uttoxeter River Dun (GB)T: David Pipe Uttoxeter & Cheadle Voice Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 23.5f · Heavy · 7 ran 5th 7/4F

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Michael Heard's strike rate?: Michael Heard has won 33 of 404 rides since 2008, a strike rate of 8.2% (as at 28 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Michael Heard do best at?: Taunton by strike rate: 9 wins from 39 rides (23.1%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Which yard does Michael Heard ride most for?: David Pipe, with 217 rides since 2008 — 54% of the total. That pairing has won 25 (11.5%).
What is Michael Heard's Fair A/E?: 0.88, from 403 rides with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.