Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
KTB Yard Profile
Sends out around 50 runners a season, across both codes, winning with 7% of them — level with the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 0.98).
Deterministic profile computed from 273 archived runs (last 5 seasons) · updated 22 Oct 2026
KTB at a glanceFergus Gillard: 7.7% from 78
The read
The market has consistently overbet runners with a claiming rider up: 5.9% strike, Fair A/E 0.67 and −67.42 to a £1 stake over 101 runners — those runners underperform what the price implies. Fergus Gillard rides 29% of the entries and matches the yard's average almost exactly (7.7%, A/E 0.81). The yard also reads well off a 31-60-day break (12.7%, n=55) and over 2m1f – 2m4f (11.9%, n=59). The stable star of the record: No No Cardinal (IRE) — 7 wins from 75 runs for the yard.
Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.
Yard patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 7% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
4.8%−2.2
n=42 · A/E 1.56 · £1 +21.00
New recruits · first run for the yard
4.5%−2.5
n=22 · A/E 1.55 · £1 +29.00
Debutants · first career start
0%−7.0
n=3 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −3.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
25%+18.0
n=4 · A/E 3.54 · £1 +0.33
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
13%+6.0
n=23 · A/E 1.72 · £1 −13.75
When favourite
22.2%
n=9 · A/E 0.78 · £1 −3.25
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
5.9%−1.1
n=101 · A/E 0.67 · £1 −67.42
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
0%−7.0
n=1 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −1.00
Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 7% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.
Notable angles
vs their own baseline
With C&D winners15.8% vs 7% · n=38
Off a 31-60-day break12.7% vs 7% · n=55
Over 2m1f – 2m4f11.9% vs 7% · n=59
With Theo Gillard2.6% vs 7% · n=38
With a new jockey booking3.8% vs 7% · n=106
With horses switching code4% vs 7% · n=50
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.
Record by conditions
same window as header
Race type
TypeRWSR£1
Hurdle160148.8%+66.58
Flat8955.6%−53.17
Chase1900%−19.00
NH Flat500%−5.00
Going
GoingRWSR£1
Good11376.2%−12.00
Good to Soft5747%−14.00
Soft3638.3%+26.50
Standard (AW)2700%−27.00
Good to Firm2428.3%−16.17
Heavy15320%+33.08
Firm100%−1.00
Courses
CourseRWSR£1
Wincanton3139.7%−7.00
Newton Abbot2428.3%+29.75
Taunton2015%−11.50
Salisbury1600%−16.00
Brighton15320%+7.83
Ffos Las15213.3%−4.67
Bath1516.7%−9.50
Fontwell14321.4%+82.50
Exeter1300%−13.00
Chepstow1000%−10.00
Fakenham1000%−10.00
Plumpton10220%+15.00
Lingfield (AW)800%−8.00
Chelmsford City (AW)800%−8.00
Worcester8112.5%+0.50
Class
ClassRWSR£1
Class 59977.1%−50.75
Class 49088.9%+95.83
Class 66346.3%−34.67
Class 31900%−19.00
Class 1100%−1.00
Class 2100%−1.00
Market position
In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite13323.1%0.89−2.92
2nd–3rd fav55712.7%0.91−11.67
4th–6th fav8256.1%0.99−3.00
7th+ in betting12343.3%1.23+7.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.
Distance
DistanceRWSR£1
1m5f – 2m11875.9%−59.17
2m1f – 2m4f59711.9%+108.75
1m2f – 1m4f25312%−2.17
1m – 1m1f2314.3%−15.50
6f – 7f2200%−22.00
2m5f – 3m1200%−12.00
Under 6f1218.3%−6.50
Over 3m200%−2.00
By season
By seasonRWSR£1
20228544.7%−55.00
20236734.5%+39.33
2024851011.8%+33.83
20253625.6%−28.75
Handicaps
HandicapsRWSR£1
Handicaps189147.4%−85.92
Field size
Field sizeRWSR£1
8-10 runners10576.7%−30.42
5-7 runners6657.6%+9.33
11-13 runners6346.3%+17.00
14-16 runners28310.7%+4.50
2-4 runners1000%−10.00
17+ runners100%−1.00
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
All 35 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next
Of the 35 horses listed, 27 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from Syd Hosie (3) and Bill Turner (2); 8 had their first archived run for this yard.
10 have since run for another yard; 25 have no later run for another yard in our archive.
Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.
When the yard fires
strike by month, 5 seasons
JFMAMJJASOND
001984495017115
Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.
Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".
Career highlights
lifetime archive, 2005→
96
Archived wins
£753k
Prize money
2014
Best season · 15 wins
In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Enchanting Smile (FR) — Sis At The Heart Of Racing Mares' Novices' Hurdle Newton Abbot · Jun 2014 · Class 4
£6,173
No No Tonic (GB) — Blackbrook Primary Racing To School 'Hands And Heels' Handicap Hurdle (Conditionals/Amateurs) Taunton · Mar 2024 · Class 4
£6,073
Pauntley Gofa (GB) — totesport.com Handicap Chase Wincanton · Oct 2007 · Class 4
Progeny have won 10.1% of 6,039 runs since 2008 (384 horses). Strongest on Heavy going: 13.3% from 263. Weakest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 6.3% from 142.
Progeny have won 12.1% of 1,562 runs since 2008 (164 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 9.1% from 450. Strongest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 16.1% from 137. Weakest over 6f – 7f (all codes): 5.5% from 200.
Progeny have won 8.3% of 1,312 runs since 2008 (183 horses). Strongest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 11.8% from 212.
Sulamani (IRE)18.2% · 4–22
Progeny have won 11.5% of 4,243 runs since 2008 (278 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 8.1% from 479. Strongest beyond 3m (all codes): 15.4% from 240.
Progeny have won 10.2% of 3,706 runs since 2008 (280 horses).
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 22 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.
The record
latest 50 of 1,826 · newest first
The latest 50 of 1,826 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 20 February 2005 to 29 August 2025.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
What is Mark Gillard's strike rate?
Mark Gillard has won 19 of 273 runners since 2022, a strike rate of 7% (as at 22 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Mark Gillard do best at?
Wincanton by strike rate: 3 wins from 31 runners (9.7%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for Mark Gillard?
Fergus Gillard, with 78 runners since 2022 — 29% of the total. That pairing has won 6 (7.7%).
What is Mark Gillard's Fair A/E?
0.98, from 273 runners with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Mark Gillard·SR 7%·A/E 0.98
KTB
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