Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
KTB at a glanceClaiming: 5.8%
Riding patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 5.6% baseline
First ride on the horse · first captured pairing
0%−5.6
n=34 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −34.00
Last-time-out winners · previous run was a win
0%−5.6
n=6 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −6.00
Fresh horses · 61+ days off
10.5%+4.9
n=19 · A/E 1.72 · £1 −9.00
When favourite
0%
n=2 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −2.00
Claiming rides · riding with a claim
5.8%+0.2
n=69 · A/E 0.70 · £1 −44.00
Big fields · 14+ runners
0%−5.6
n=16 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −16.00
Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 5.6% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.
Notable angles
vs their own baseline
On first rides for the horse0% vs 5.6% · n=34
When claiming5.8% vs 5.6% · n=69 · A/E 0.70
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.
Record by conditions
same window as header
Race type
TypeRWSR£1
Hurdle4824.2%−32.50
Chase19210.5%−9.50
NH Flat300%−3.00
Flat100%−1.00
Going
GoingRWSR£1
Soft2328.7%−7.50
Good2200%−22.00
Good to Soft1500%−15.00
Heavy10220%−0.50
Good to Firm100%−1.00
Courses
CourseRWSR£1
Exeter1100%−11.00
Wincanton8112.5%−1.50
Ffos Las6116.7%−2.50
Leicester4125%−1.00
Gowran Park (IRE)300%−3.00
Newton Abbot300%−3.00
Wexford300%−3.00
Cork300%−3.00
Taunton300%−3.00
Cheltenham300%−3.00
Perth2150%+10.00
Hereford200%−2.00
Huntingdon200%−2.00
Chepstow200%−2.00
Aintree100%−1.00
Class
ClassRWSR£1
Class 52727.4%−17.50
Class 418211.1%−2.50
Class 3600%−6.00
Class 2200%−2.00
Class 6200%−2.00
Market position
In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite300%0.00−3.00
2nd–3rd fav13215.4%0.87−6.50
4th–6th fav2129.5%1.15−2.50
7th+ in betting3400%0.00−34.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.
Distance
DistanceRWSR£1
2m5f – 3m2700%−27.00
2m1f – 2m4f24312.5%−5.50
1m5f – 2m1400%−14.00
Over 3m6116.7%+0.50
By season
By seasonRWSR£1
2022800%−8.00
20231600%−16.00
20241815.6%−6.00
202512216.7%−5.50
20261715.9%−10.50
Handicaps
HandicapsRWSR£1
Handicaps4200%−42.00
Field size
Field sizeRWSR£1
8-10 runners2414.2%−20.50
11-13 runners1800%−18.00
14-16 runners1200%−12.00
5-7 runners10220%+8.50
17+ runners400%−4.00
2-4 runners3133.3%+0.00
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.
All 35 horses ridden in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Current form
significance-gated
Last 14 days
Small sample
0 from 5
Only 5 rides in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.
By month
strike by month, 5 seasons
JFMAMJJASOND
131102000000000
A jumps rider: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.
Progeny have won 9.7% of 1,212 runs since 2023 (209 horses).
Passing Glance (GB)28.6% · 2–7
Progeny have won 12.4% of 3,582 runs since 2008 (296 horses). Strongest on Heavy going: 15.8% from 222. Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 7.2% from 290. Weakest over 6f – 7f (all codes): 8.8% from 171.
Progeny have won 13.3% of 1,110 runs since 2020 (141 horses). Strongest on Heavy going: 16.8% from 101. Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 7.1% from 126. Strongest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 16.7% from 251. Weakest over 1m – 1m1f (all codes): 9% from 122.
Progeny have won 10.2% of 1,100 runs since 2021 (205 horses). Strongest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 17.7% from 124.
Top line: the rider's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 13 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.
The record
latest 50 of 73 · newest first
The latest 50 of 73 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 3 December 2021 to 12 November 2026.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
What is Miss Ella Herbison's strike rate?
Miss Ella Herbison has won 4 of 71 rides since 2022, a strike rate of 5.6% (as at 13 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Is Miss Ella Herbison in form?
Too few rides in the last 14 days to read — 5 rides, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is Miss Ella Herbison's Fair A/E?
0.70, from 70 rides with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Miss Ella Herbison·SR 5.6%·A/E 0.70
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