Molly Gunn
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
Rides around 70 times a season, almost all on the flat, winning on 7% of them — beating the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 1.09). Rides mostly for Tony Carroll — 70% of rides in the window.
It is weakest at Wolverhampton (AW) (2.5% over 80 rides) — the largest sample in the record, and the widest gap. Horses returning fresh after 61+ days have been a poor signal at 1.8% (n=55, Fair A/E 0.47). Tony Carroll supplies 70% of the rides and matches the rider's average almost exactly (8.7%, A/E 1.14) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. The rider also reads well over 1m2f – 1m4f (11.4%, n=70) and on Good going (11.8%, n=34). The record reads poorly in Class 5 — 1.4% over 71 rides, 5.6pts below the baseline. The standout partner of the record: Three Dons (IRE) — 6 wins from 18 rides together. Seasonally, the rider fires Jan–Feb.
Riding patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 7% baselineEach tile is the record in that situation vs the 7% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.
Notable angles
vs their own baselineRecord by conditions
same window as headerGoing
Courses
Class
Market position
Distance
By season
Handicaps
Field size
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
Horses ridden
same window as header · most-raced firstCurrent form
significance-gatedLast 14 days
Small sampleBy month
strike by month, 5 seasonsRiding for
same window · biggest samples firstCareer highlights
lifetime archive, 2021→Sires of the horses ridden
progeny record · win % by ground and tripThe record
latest 50 of 348 · newest firstThe latest 50 of 348 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 10 April 2021 to 7 November 2026.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
- What is Molly Gunn's strike rate?
- Molly Gunn has won 24 of 344 rides since 2022, a strike rate of 7% (as at 12 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
- Which course does Molly Gunn do best at?
- Brighton by strike rate: 4 wins from 41 rides (9.8%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
- Which yard does Molly Gunn ride most for?
- Tony Carroll, with 241 rides since 2022 — 70% of the total. That pairing has won 21 (8.7%).
- Is Molly Gunn in form?
- Too few rides in the last 14 days to read — 4 rides, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
- What is Molly Gunn's Fair A/E?
- 1.09, from 339 rides with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.