Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
KTB Yard Profile
Sends out around 30 runners a season, almost all on the flat, winning with 7% of them — beating the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 1.27). With a claiming rider up the record reads 11% (80 runs).
Deterministic profile computed from 166 archived runs (last 5 seasons) · updated 20 Oct 2026
KTB at a glanceClaiming riders: 11.3%
The read
Runners with a claiming rider up have been a positive signal at 11.3% (n=80, Fair A/E 1.71). The yard also reads well off a 8-14-day break (13.2%, n=38) and at trips under 6f (12.5%, n=32). The stable star of the record: Hey Ho Let's Go (GB) — 7 wins from 56 runs for the yard.
Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.
Yard patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 6.6% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
0%−6.6
n=25 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −25.00
New recruits · first run for the yard
0%−6.6
n=12 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −12.00
Debutants · first career start
0%−6.6
n=2 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −2.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
0%−6.6
n=3 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −3.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
0%−6.6
n=9 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −9.00
When favourite
0%
n=2 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −2.00
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
11.3%+4.7
n=80 · A/E 1.71 · £1 +50.25
Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 6.6% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.
Notable angles
vs their own baseline
With C&D winners13.9% vs 6.6% · n=36
Off a 8-14-day break13.2% vs 6.6% · n=38
With a new jockey booking1.4% vs 6.6% · n=71
With claiming riders up11.3% vs 6.6% · n=80
At trips under 6f12.5% vs 6.6% · n=32
With Aidan Keeley11.1% vs 6.6% · n=36
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.
Record by conditions
same window as header
Race type
TypeRWSR£1
Flat160116.9%−19.75
Hurdle600%−6.00
Going
GoingRWSR£1
Standard (AW)11276.3%−40.50
Good2229.1%+0.75
Good to Firm18211.1%+28.00
Soft1000%−10.00
Good to Soft300%−3.00
Heavy100%−1.00
Courses
CourseRWSR£1
Lingfield (AW)7045.7%−26.00
Kempton (AW)2913.4%−14.00
Brighton2000%−20.00
Chelmsford City (AW)9222.2%+3.50
Windsor8112.5%+33.00
Lingfield7114.3%−3.25
Epsom5120%+0.00
Southwell (AW)300%−3.00
Fontwell300%−3.00
Yarmouth200%−2.00
Plumpton200%−2.00
Newbury2150%+17.00
Sandown100%−1.00
Wolverhampton (AW)100%−1.00
Ascot100%−1.00
Class
ClassRWSR£1
Class 612286.6%−9.50
Class 53438.8%−6.25
Class 4900%−9.00
Class 3100%−1.00
Market position
In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite200%0.00−2.00
2nd–3rd fav12433.3%2.18+5.25
4th–6th fav5147.8%1.05−3.00
7th+ in betting10133%1.22−26.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.
Distance
DistanceRWSR£1
1m2f – 1m4f6246.5%−18.00
1m – 1m1f3625.6%+20.00
Under 6f32412.5%+0.75
6f – 7f2913.4%−21.50
2m1f – 2m4f400%−4.00
1m5f – 2m300%−3.00
By season
By seasonRWSR£1
202239410.3%−6.25
20234324.7%−23.00
20244025%−6.00
20252613.8%+15.00
202618211.1%−5.50
Handicaps
HandicapsRWSR£1
Handicaps13286.1%−33.25
Field size
Field sizeRWSR£1
8-10 runners8167.4%−9.00
11-13 runners5012%−9.00
5-7 runners25416%+2.25
14-16 runners700%−7.00
2-4 runners300%−3.00
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
All 17 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next
Of the 17 horses listed, 14 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from Gary Moore (2); 3 had their first archived run for this yard.
7 have since run for another yard, most often for Adam West (3); 10 have no later run for another yard in our archive.
Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.
Current form
significance-gated
Last 14 days
Small sample
0 from 1
Only 1 runners in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.
When the yard fires
strike by month, 5 seasons
JFMAMJJASOND
01901711128000110
A flat yard: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.
Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".
Career highlights
lifetime archive, 2005→
51
Archived wins
£323k
Prize money
2010
Best season · 5 wins
In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Mafeking (UAE) — Lingfield Park For Parties Handicap Lingfield (AW) · Jan 2008 · Class 2
£9,971
Mafeking (UAE) — Weatherbys Printing Handicap Wolverhampton (AW) · Mar 2010 · Class 3
£6,939
Mafeking (UAE) — totetrifecta Flexi Betting Handicap Lingfield (AW) · Dec 2010 · Class 3
Progeny have won 13.3% of 4,533 runs since 2008 (415 horses). Strongest over 1m2f – 1m4f (all codes): 16.3% from 104. Weakest over 1m – 1m1f (all codes): 10.3% from 408.
Progeny have won 12.4% of 2,866 runs since 2008 (353 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 17.2% from 425. Strongest at trips under 6f (all codes): 16.3% from 576. Weakest over 1m2f – 1m4f (all codes): 4.8% from 189.
Progeny have won 8.8% of 4,568 runs since 2008 (314 horses).
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 20 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.
The record
latest 50 of 1,088 · newest first
The latest 50 of 1,088 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 3 January 2005 to 12 October 2026.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
What is Mark Hoad's strike rate?
Mark Hoad has won 11 of 166 runners since 2022, a strike rate of 6.6% (as at 20 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Mark Hoad do best at?
Lingfield (AW) by strike rate: 4 wins from 70 runners (5.7%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Is Mark Hoad in form?
Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 1 runner, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is Mark Hoad's Fair A/E?
1.27, from 166 runners with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Mark Hoad·SR 6.6%·A/E 1.27
KTB
Cookies on Kickthebookies
We use essential cookies to run the site and remember your betslip. No advertising or tracking cookies, ever. By continuing to use this site, you agree. Cookie policy