Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
Riding patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 8.6% baseline
First ride on the horse · first captured pairing
3.8%−4.8
n=26 · A/E 0.38 · £1 −17.50
Last-time-out winners · previous run was a win
66.7%+58.1
n=3 · A/E 6.25 · £1 +11.00
Fresh horses · 61+ days off
20%+11.4
n=5 · A/E 3.02 · £1 +3.50
When favourite
25%
n=4 · A/E 0.91 · £1 −1.50
Claiming rides · riding with a claim
10.7%+2.1
n=28 · A/E 1.01 · £1 −11.50
Big fields · 14+ runners
0%−8.6
n=4 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −4.00
Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 8.6% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.
Record by conditions
same window as header
Race type
TypeRWSR£1
Flat3438.8%−17.50
NH Flat100%−1.00
Going
GoingRWSR£1
Standard (AW)1200%−12.00
Good to Soft7114.3%−1.50
Good700%−7.00
Good to Firm6116.7%−3.50
Soft3133.3%+5.50
Courses
CourseRWSR£1
Newcastle (AW)500%−5.00
Doncaster4125%+4.50
Pontefract3133.3%−0.50
Carlisle300%−3.00
Catterick300%−3.00
York2150%+3.50
Leicester200%−2.00
Kempton (AW)200%−2.00
Southwell (AW)200%−2.00
Wolverhampton (AW)200%−2.00
Yarmouth100%−1.00
Thirsk100%−1.00
Hamilton100%−1.00
Haydock100%−1.00
Redcar100%−1.00
Class
ClassRWSR£1
Class 61815.6%−15.50
Class 51000%−10.00
Class 47228.6%+7.00
Market position
In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite6116.7%0.68−3.50
2nd–3rd fav6116.7%1.30−0.50
4th–6th fav1417.1%0.84−5.50
7th+ in betting900%0.00−9.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.
Distance
DistanceRWSR£1
1m2f – 1m4f19210.5%−8.00
1m – 1m1f6116.7%−0.50
6f – 7f500%−5.00
1m5f – 2m400%−4.00
Under 6f100%−1.00
By season
By seasonRWSR£1
20226116.7%−3.50
202311218.2%+3.00
2024500%−5.00
2025500%−5.00
2026800%−8.00
Handicaps
HandicapsRWSR£1
Handicaps3438.8%−17.50
Field size
Field sizeRWSR£1
11-13 runners16212.5%−2.00
8-10 runners1000%−10.00
5-7 runners5120%−2.50
17+ runners300%−3.00
14-16 runners100%−1.00
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
All 26 horses ridden in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Current form
significance-gated
Last 14 days
Small sample
0 from 1
Only 1 rides in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.
By month
strike by month, 5 seasons
JFMAMJJASOND
0·0100002520000·
A flat rider: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.
Progeny have won 8.4% of 1,904 runs since 2008 (296 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 1.9% from 105. Strongest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 13.1% from 283.
Progeny have won 8.8% of 3,283 runs since 2008 (240 horses). Strongest over 1m2f – 1m4f (all codes): 12.8% from 634. Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 5.7% from 264.
Progeny have won 7.1% of 1,671 runs since 2008 (128 horses). Strongest on Standard (AW) going: 10.9% from 540. Weakest on Soft going: 2.6% from 305. Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 2.7% from 147.
Progeny have won 10.1% of 3,687 runs since 2008 (216 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 13.6% from 627. Weakest on Heavy going: 5.3% from 171.
Top line: the rider's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 30 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.
The record
all 35 archived runs · newest first
Every one of Mr Jack Lander's 35 archived rides, from 27 March 2022 to 26 October 2026, newest first — 3 winners among them.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
What is Mr Jack Lander's strike rate?
Mr Jack Lander has won 3 of 35 rides since 2022, a strike rate of 8.6% (as at 30 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Is Mr Jack Lander in form?
Too few rides in the last 14 days to read — 1 ride, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is Mr Jack Lander's Fair A/E?
0.79, from 34 rides with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Mr Jack Lander·SR 8.6%·A/E 0.79
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