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Trainer profile

Liam Bailey

792 runners in the last 5 seasons · 56 individual horses
As at 19 Oct 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily
Non-runners: 7.3% of 206 declared in the last 365 days, counting all recorded withdrawals, including reserves. For context, a typical day across all racing ends with about 6.5% withdrawn (middle half 5.3–8.0% over 364 racing days). As at 19 Oct 2026.
Last runner 7 days ago 99% of runners on the flat
Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2019→)
from 1 Jan 2022
57–792
Wins / Runs
7.2%
Strike rate
n=792
188 (24%)
Placed
0.90
Fair A/E
n=791 · 0.77 incl. margin
−268.46
£1 level stake
n=792 at SP · −33.9%
£627k
Prize money (window)
Strike by season
8.5%
KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 160 runners a season, almost all on the flat, winning with 7% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 0.90). With a claiming rider up the record reads 11% (92 runs).

Deterministic profile computed from 792 archived runs (last 5 seasons) · updated 19 Oct 2026
KTB at a glance Fires Mar–Apr 31.3% when favourite Billy Garritty: 9.3% from 291 New recruits: 8.6% Claiming riders: 10.9% Sends off the favourite in 4% of races
The read

It is weakest at Hamilton (1.8% over 57 runners) — the widest gap in the record. Runners with a claiming rider up have been a positive signal at 10.9% (n=92, Fair A/E 1.13), but horses returning fresh after 61+ days have been a poor signal at 3.3% (n=123, Fair A/E 0.82). Billy Garritty rides 37% of the entries and edges the yard's average (9.3% vs 7.2%, A/E 1.12) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. The yard also reads well in Class 4 (14.1%, n=78). The record reads poorly off a 61-180-day break — 1.4% over 73 runners, 5.8pts below the baseline. The market has consistently overbet the yard on Good to Soft going: Fair A/E 0.22 across 70 runners (1.4% strike, −63.00 to a £1 stake) — runners there underperform what the price implies. The stable star of the record: How Bizarre (GB) — 8 wins from 74 runs for the yard. Seasonally, the yard fires Mar–Apr.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 7.2% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
3.3%−3.9
n=123 · A/E 0.82 · £1 −28.50
New recruits · first run for the yard
8.6%+1.4
n=35 · A/E 1.50 · £1 +55.00
Debutants · first career start
0%−7.2
n=10 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −10.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
5.9%−1.3
n=17 · A/E 1.42 · £1 −13.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
5.3%−1.9
n=57 · A/E 0.78 · £1 −15.00
When favourite
31.3%
n=32 · A/E 1.08 · £1 −0.46
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
10.9%+3.7
n=92 · A/E 1.13 · £1 −24.49

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 7.2% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline
In Class 4 14.1% vs 7.2% · n=78
Off a 61-180-day break 1.4% vs 7.2% · n=73
On Good to Soft going 1.4% vs 7.2% · n=70
Over 1m – 1m1f 2.5% vs 7.2% · n=121
At Hamilton 1.8% vs 7.2% · n=57
With Jack Garritty 1.8% vs 7.2% · n=56
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1
Flat 786 57 7.3% −262.46
Chase 3 0 0% −3.00
Hurdle 3 0 0% −3.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1
Standard (AW) 374 24 6.4% −141.49
Good 178 16 9% −47.59
Good to Firm 84 7 8.3% −32.50
Good to Soft 70 1 1.4% −63.00
Soft 68 4 5.9% +1.50
Heavy 18 5 27.8% +14.62

Courses

CourseRWSR£1
Newcastle (AW) 213 15 7% −49.12
Southwell (AW) 107 6 5.6% −54.12
Musselburgh 82 9 11% −7.00
Catterick 62 2 3.2% −46.50
Hamilton 57 1 1.8% −52.00
Ayr 50 3 6% −23.00
Pontefract 31 2 6.5% −24.09
Chelmsford City (AW) 28 2 7.1% −18.75
Wolverhampton (AW) 26 1 3.8% −19.50
Ripon 26 4 15.4% +4.12
Redcar 23 2 8.7% +32.50
Beverley 14 2 14.3% −1.00
York 13 3 23.1% +12.00
Doncaster 13 2 15.4% +7.50
Carlisle 11 0 0% −11.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1
Class 6 523 31 5.9% −251.87
Class 5 183 15 8.2% −17.38
Class 4 78 11 14.1% +8.79
Class 2 6 0 0% −6.00
Class 3 2 0 0% −2.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite 42 10 23.8% 0.89 −10.46
2nd–3rd fav 130 18 13.8% 0.88 −32.50
4th–6th fav 263 22 8.4% 1.06 −51.50
7th+ in betting 357 7 2% 0.63 −174.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first
HorseRWPlLast ran
Stroxx (IRE)from Tim Easterby 59 3 17 24 Mar 26
Beneficiary (GB)from K R Burke 50 5 17 28 Apr 26
Yakhabar (GB)from Sir Michael Stoute 44 4 7 31 Jul 26
Clansman (GB)from Jedd O'Keeffe 41 8 17 1 Oct 26
How Bizarre (GB)from Kevin Ryan 38 5 14 29 Mar 24
Fanzone (IRE)from Ian Williams 33 1 10 14 Sep 24
Dicko The Legend (IRE)from Roger Ingram 32 3 12 31 Aug 26
Protest Rally (IRE)from Ed Walker 30 4 10 26 Sep 26
Doomsday (GB)from Bryan Smart 27 2 6 27 Nov 25
Quanah (IRE)from Mark H Tompkins 26 1 4 29 Oct 24
Laura's Breeze (IRE)from Ed Dunlop 24 1 7 10 Mar 26
Pit Boss (GB)from Charlie Clover 23 2 12 12 Oct 26
All 56 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 56 horses listed, 44 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from David O'Meara (4) and K R Burke (3); 12 had their first archived run for this yard.

None of them has a later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

Current form

significance-gated

Last 14 days

Small sample
0 from 2
Only 2 runners in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.

When the yard fires

strike by month, 5 seasons
JFMAMJJASOND
87111159881790
A flat yard: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first
Go-to riderBilly Garritty
37% of all rides
9.3% SR · A/E 1.12
RiderRWSR£1
Billy Garritty 291 27 9.3% −35.97
Daniel Tudhope 85 5 5.9% −54.50
Jack Garritty 56 1 1.8% −51.00
Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2019→
79
Archived wins
£844k
Prize money
2024
Best season · 15 wins
Say What You See (IRE) — Racing League Race 36 Handicap (GBBPlus Race) Southwell (AW) · Aug 2025 · Class 4
£18,039
Dicko The Legend (IRE) — Tomahawk Restaurants Handicap York · Jul 2025 · Class 4
£12,885
Say What You See (IRE) — Event Traffic Control Handicap (GBBPlus Race) York · Jun 2026 · Class 4
£12,885
Notable horses
How Bizarre (GB) Clansman (GB) Quanah (IRE) Beneficiary (GB) Say What You See (IRE) Yakhabar (GB)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip
Ardad (IRE) 9.7% · 7–72
Progeny have won 8.7% of 3,499 runs since 2008 (350 horses).
Camacho (GB) 4.7% · 3–64
Progeny have won 8.1% of 9,319 runs since 2008 (596 horses).
Dandy Man (IRE) 8.9% · 5–56
Progeny have won 9.1% of 14,911 runs since 2008 (930 horses). Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 5.3% from 170.
Profitable (IRE) 10% · 5–50
Progeny have won 9.5% of 4,407 runs since 2008 (356 horses).
Ulysses (IRE) 9.1% · 4–44
Progeny have won 10.6% of 2,969 runs since 2008 (293 horses).
Nathaniel (IRE) 18.6% · 8–43
Progeny have won 11.6% of 7,058 runs since 2008 (633 horses). Weakest over 6f – 7f (all codes): 6.2% from 324.
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 19 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 1,236 · newest first

The latest 50 of 1,236 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 7 March 2019 to 12 October 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP
12 Oct 26 Newcastle (AW) Pit Boss (GB)J: Andrew Mullen Download The Raceday Ready App Handicap Stakes (Div I)Class 5 · 6f · Standard · 12 ran 8th 33/1
10 Oct 26 York Say What You See (IRE)J: Billy Garritty Sky Bet For The Fans Handicap Stakes (gbbplus Race)Class 2 · 10.5f · Soft · 18 ran 4th 11/1
01 Oct 26 Newcastle (AW) Henry Halflight (IRE)J: Billy Garritty Get Raceday Ready Handicap StakesClass 5 · 7f · Standard · 10 ran 6th 66/1
01 Oct 26 Newcastle (AW) Clansman (GB)J: Billy Garritty Follow @attheraces On Instagram Handicap StakesClass 5 · 12.5f · Standard · 11 ran 8th 14/1
30 Sep 26 Catterick Something (GB)J: Billy Garritty Amstel Gallop Handicap Stakes (gbbplus Race)Class 4 · 12f · Good · 7 ran 4th 33/1
30 Sep 26 Catterick Wait For It (IRE)J: Billy Garritty Racingtv.com Handicap StakesClass 6 · 6f · Good · 10 ran 1st 6/1
30 Sep 26 Catterick Pit Boss (GB)J: Billy Garritty Bet At racingtv.com Handicap Stakes (Div I)Class 5 · 7f · Good · 10 ran 10th 250/1
26 Sep 26 Southwell (AW) Protest Rally (IRE)J: Billy Garritty Gent's Night Sat 24th October Handicap StakesClass 6 · 5f · Standard · 9 ran 9th 9/1
24 Sep 26 Southwell (AW) Hectic (GB)J: Billy Garritty Download The At The Races App Handicap Stakes (Div II)Class 5 · 7f · Standard · 9 ran 7th 9/1
24 Sep 26 Southwell (AW) Tactical Blitz (GB)J: Billy Garritty Download The At The Races App Handicap Stakes (Div I)Class 5 · 7f · Standard · 9 ran 8th 28/1
21 Sep 26 Hamilton Winter Crown (GB)J: Daniel Tudhope Start Your Racingtv Free Trial Now Confined Handicap Stakes (For Horses With No Win In 2026)Class 6 · 6f · Soft · 7 ran 7th 33/1
21 Sep 26 Hamilton Ottawa (GB)J: Billy Garritty Start Your Racingtv Free Trial Now Confined Handicap Stakes (For Horses With No Win In 2026)Class 6 · 6f · Soft · 7 ran 5th 10/1
15 Sep 26 Redcar Henry Halflight (IRE)J: Billy Garritty Marske Fabrication And Engineering Straight Mile Handicap Stakes (Marske Fabrications & Engineering Straight Mile Series Qual.)Class 5 · 8f · Good · 13 ran 13th 150/1
13 Sep 26 Doncaster Say What You See (IRE)J: Billy Garritty Betfred Mallard Handicap Stakes (gbbplus Race)Class 2 · 14.5f · Good · 8 ran 3rd 6/1
08 Sep 26 Catterick Protest Rally (IRE)J: Daniel Tudhope Rmg Proudly Supports Teenage Cancer Trust Handicap StakesClass 5 · 5f · Good To Soft · 9 ran 5th 66/1
08 Sep 26 Catterick Pit Boss (GB)J: Billy Garritty Fifth Regiment Royal Artillery Handicap Stakes (Div II)Class 6 · 6f · Good To Soft · 9 ran 9th 33/1
08 Sep 26 Catterick Winter Crown (GB)J: Jack Garritty Fifth Regiment Royal Artillery Handicap Stakes (Div II)Class 6 · 6f · Good To Soft · 9 ran 6th 50/1
08 Sep 26 Catterick Ottawa (GB)J: Billy Garritty Fifth Regiment Royal Artillery Handicap Stakes (Div I)Class 6 · 6f · Good To Soft · 9 ran 4th 80/1
03 Sep 26 Southwell (AW) Dorney Lake (GB)J: Daniel Tudhope Bettingsites.co.uk Handicap StakesClass 4 · 6f · Standard · 12 ran 9th 8/1
03 Sep 26 Southwell (AW) Tactical Blitz (GB)J: Daniel Tudhope Bettingsites.co.uk Handicap StakesClass 5 · 7f · Standard · 9 ran 7th 50/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Liam Bailey's strike rate?
Liam Bailey has won 57 of 792 runners since 2022, a strike rate of 7.2% (as at 19 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Liam Bailey do best at?
Musselburgh by strike rate: 9 wins from 82 runners (11%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for Liam Bailey?
Billy Garritty, with 291 runners since 2022 — 37% of the total. That pairing has won 27 (9.3%).
Is Liam Bailey in form?
Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 2 runners, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is Liam Bailey's Fair A/E?
0.90, from 791 runners with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%". Three sample sizes are reported and never blended: runs (n), the ROI basis (n at SP), and the fair-A/E basis (n with a computed fair probability).

Strike rate is wins over all runs (n). ROI is £1 level stakes at SP over runs with a parseable price (n at SP). Fair A/E is wins over margin-stripped market expectation, over runs with a computed fair probability (n fair). The three Ns can legitimately differ and are always shown. Figures as at 19 October 2026, computed from our own results archive (2005 onwards; aggregates from 2008).