Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
KTB Rider Profile
Rides around 30 times a season, winning on 11% of them — beating the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 1.33). The edge shows sharpest with horses returning fresh: 17% off breaks of two months or more (30 runs).
Deterministic profile computed from 143 archived runs (last 5 seasons) · updated 19 Oct 2026
KTB at a glanceFresh horses: 16.7%
The read
Horses returning fresh after 61+ days have been a positive signal at 16.7% (n=30, Fair A/E 1.68). The rider also reads well on Good going (15%, n=40). The market has also underrated the rider over 1m5f – 2m: Fair A/E 1.50 across 58 rides (13.8% strike, +0.37 to a £1 stake). The record reads poorly over 2m1f – 2m4f — 6.7% over 45 rides, 4.5pts below the baseline.
Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.
Riding patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 11.2% baseline
First ride on the horse · first captured pairing
9.3%−1.9
n=97 · A/E 1.25 · £1 −40.13
Last-time-out winners · previous run was a win
0%−11.2
n=9 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −9.00
Fresh horses · 61+ days off
16.7%+5.5
n=30 · A/E 1.68 · £1 +0.17
When favourite
42.9%
n=7 · A/E 1.39 · £1 −0.21
Claiming rides · riding with a claim
11.2%+0.0
n=134 · A/E 1.33 · £1 −24.13
Big fields · 14+ runners
11.3%+0.1
n=62 · A/E 2.22 · £1 +8.25
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
0%−11.2
n=1 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −1.00
Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 11.2% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.
Notable angles
vs their own baseline
On Soft going6.9% vs 11.2% · n=58
Over 2m1f – 2m4f6.7% vs 11.2% · n=45
On Good going15% vs 11.2% · n=40
Over 1m5f – 2m13.8% vs 11.2% · n=58
In Chase races14% vs 11.2% · n=43
On first rides for the horse9.3% vs 11.2% · n=97 · A/E 1.25
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.
Record by conditions
same window as header
Race type
TypeRWSR£1
NH Flat72912.5%−6.13
Chase43614%+0.00
Flat2015%−8.00
Hurdle800%−8.00
Going
GoingRWSR£1
Soft5846.9%−28.00
Good40615%+9.25
Good to Soft25312%+9.00
Heavy17317.6%−9.38
Standard (AW)300%−3.00
Courses
CourseRWSR£1
Punchestown2000%−20.00
Cork1417.1%−10.50
Clonmel1317.7%−8.67
Tipperary800%−8.00
Thurles800%−8.00
Fairyhouse7114.3%−2.50
Listowel7114.3%+2.00
Cheltenham6116.7%+5.00
Ballinrobe6233.3%+24.00
Tramore600%−6.00
Limerick600%−6.00
Wexford5120%+8.00
Kilbeggan4250%+3.75
Downpatrick4125%+0.00
Naas4125%−2.38
Class
ClassRWSR£1
Class 26116.7%+5.00
Class 3200%−2.00
Class 1100%−1.00
Market position
In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite8337.5%1.25−1.21
2nd–3rd fav28517.9%1.10−7.42
4th–6th fav47714.9%2.00+34.50
7th+ in betting6011.7%0.65−48.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.
Distance
DistanceRWSR£1
1m5f – 2m58813.8%+0.37
2m1f – 2m4f4536.7%−21.17
2m5f – 3m23313%+3.00
Over 3m13215.4%−0.33
6f – 7f300%−3.00
1m2f – 1m4f100%−1.00
By season
By seasonRWSR£1
20223139.7%−13.58
202325312%+1.33
20243239.4%−4.38
202527311.1%−5.50
202628414.3%+0.00
Handicaps
HandicapsRWSR£1
Handicaps2129.5%−5.67
Field size
Field sizeRWSR£1
8-10 runners37410.8%−12.17
11-13 runners3226.3%−13.50
14-16 runners32515.6%+22.75
17+ runners3026.7%−14.50
5-7 runners12325%−4.71
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.
Showing the 60 most-raced of the 104 horses ridden in this window — each ran at least 1 time. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Current form
significance-gated
Last 14 days
Small sample
0 from 2
Only 2 rides in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.
By month
strike by month, 5 seasons
JFMAMJJASOND
1317140218141309015
A jumps rider: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.
In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Angels Dawn (IRE) — Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup Amateur Jockeys' Handicap Chase (Sponsored By The JRL Group) (GBB Race) Cheltenham · Mar 2023 · Class 2
£36,668
Que Pasa (IRE) — Irish Foal Levy Mares (pro/am) Flat Race Cork · Nov 2012
£10,350
No Grey Area's (IRE) — Holden Plant Rentals Handicap Hurdle Gowran Park · Mar 2021
Progeny have won 11.3% of 5,810 runs since 2008 (678 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 6.5% from 336. Weakest over 1m – 1m1f (all codes): 3.2% from 249.
Progeny have won 11.3% of 10,912 runs since 2008 (1,026 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 23.7% from 131.
Top line: the rider's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 19 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.
The record
latest 50 of 708 · newest first
The latest 50 of 708 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 23 January 2005 to 14 October 2026.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
What is Mr P A King's strike rate?
Mr P A King has won 16 of 143 rides since 2022, a strike rate of 11.2% (as at 19 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Is Mr P A King in form?
Too few rides in the last 14 days to read — 2 rides, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is Mr P A King's Fair A/E?
1.33, from 143 rides with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Mr P A King·SR 11.2%·A/E 1.33
KTB
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