Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
KTB Yard Profile
Sends out around 30 runners a season, almost all over hurdles and fences, winning with 13% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 0.81).
Deterministic profile computed from 139 archived runs (last 5 seasons) · updated 20 Oct 2026
KTB at a glanceJack Doyle: 18% from 50
The read
Jack Doyle rides 36% of the entries and beats the yard's average (18% vs 12.9%, A/E 1.05) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. The yard also reads well in NH Flat races (18.8%, n=32) and off a 15-30-day break (16.3%, n=43). The record reads poorly over 2m1f – 2m4f — 9.8% over 41 runners, 3.1pts below the baseline. 3 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the yard has landed: the Tom Quinlan Electrical Novice Hurdle at Fairyhouse (Apr 2022, £23,600). The stable star of the record: Annie Other (IRE) — 6 wins from 24 runs for the yard.
Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.
Yard patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 12.9% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
7.7%−5.2
n=26 · A/E 0.50 · £1 −22.22
New recruits · first run for the yard
16.7%+3.8
n=6 · A/E 0.79 · £1 −4.47
Debutants · first career start
13.5%+0.6
n=37 · A/E 1.07 · £1 −2.63
First-time headgear · true-first definition
7.7%−5.2
n=13 · A/E 0.67 · £1 −9.25
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
50%+37.1
n=2 · A/E 1.46 · £1 +0.00
When favourite
37.5%
n=24 · A/E 1.00 · £1 −2.70
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
12.7%−0.2
n=71 · A/E 0.75 · £1 −16.35
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
16.7%+3.8
n=12 · A/E 1.21 · £1 −7.75
Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 12.9% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.
Notable angles
vs their own baseline
In NH Flat races18.8% vs 12.9% · n=32
With Jack Doyle18% vs 12.9% · n=50
Off a 15-30-day break16.3% vs 12.9% · n=43
Over 2m1f – 2m4f9.8% vs 12.9% · n=41
Over 1m5f – 2m15.5% vs 12.9% · n=58
On Good going15.8% vs 12.9% · n=38
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.
Record by conditions
same window as header
Race type
TypeRWSR£1
Hurdle791012.7%−38.55
NH Flat32618.8%+4.62
Chase20210%−16.27
Flat800%−8.00
Going
GoingRWSR£1
Soft56610.7%−25.72
Good38615.8%−12.05
Good to Soft30413.3%−9.30
Heavy15213.3%−11.13
Courses
CourseRWSR£1
Thurles15213.3%−3.00
Cork1317.7%−11.47
Kilbeggan12325%+3.75
Fairyhouse11327.3%+3.45
Punchestown1119.1%−1.00
Tramore1119.1%−6.50
Killarney10110%−6.50
Limerick10110%−7.75
Clonmel8112.5%−6.00
Tipperary800%−8.00
Naas7228.6%−3.38
Ballinrobe400%−4.00
Downpatrick300%−3.00
Galway300%−3.00
Wexford3133.3%+6.00
Class
ClassRWSR£1
Class 112216.7%−7.75
Class 2100%−1.00
Market position
In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite27933.3%0.92−5.70
2nd–3rd fav4548.9%0.48−31.00
4th–6th fav43511.6%1.46+2.50
7th+ in betting2400%0.00−24.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.
Distance
DistanceRWSR£1
1m5f – 2m58915.5%−14.93
2m1f – 2m4f4149.8%−29.47
2m5f – 3m31412.9%−7.00
Over 3m9111.1%−6.80
By season
By seasonRWSR£1
202222731.8%+12.70
20232300%−23.00
202440615%−15.35
202542511.9%−20.55
20261200%−12.00
Handicaps
HandicapsRWSR£1
Handicaps16318.8%+5.00
Field size
Field sizeRWSR£1
14-16 runners4436.8%−29.25
11-13 runners32412.5%+0.50
8-10 runners26519.2%−7.22
5-7 runners23521.7%−10.43
17+ runners1417.1%−11.80
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.
All 45 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next
Of the 45 horses listed, 4 arrived from another yard in our archive; 41 had their first archived run for this yard.
23 have since run for another yard, most often for Christian Williams (3) and Henry De Bromhead (3); 22 have no later run for another yard in our archive.
Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.
When the yard fires
strike by month, 5 seasons
JFMAMJJASOND
1733915833100001217
A jumps yard: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.
Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".
Career highlights
lifetime archive, 2005→
66
Archived wins
3
Pattern / graded wins
£1.05m
Prize money
2005
Best season · 10 wins
In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Progeny have won 11.3% of 5,811 runs since 2008 (678 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 6.5% from 336. Weakest over 1m – 1m1f (all codes): 3.2% from 249.
Kapgarde (FR)14.3% · 1–7
Progeny have won 12.5% of 6,607 runs since 2008 (723 horses).
Progeny have won 10.8% of 8,836 runs since 2008 (784 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 15.1% from 119.
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 20 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.
The record
latest 50 of 621 · newest first
The latest 50 of 621 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 9 January 2005 to 11 May 2026.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
What is P M J Doyle's strike rate?
P M J Doyle has won 18 of 139 runners since 2022, a strike rate of 12.9% (as at 20 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Who rides most for P M J Doyle?
Jack Doyle, with 50 runners since 2022 — 36% of the total. That pairing has won 9 (18%).
What is P M J Doyle's Fair A/E?
0.81, from 139 runners with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
P M J Doyle·SR 12.9%·A/E 0.81
KTB
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