What is Natalia Gemelova's strike rate?

Natalia Gemelova has won 19 of 338 rides since 2008, a strike rate of 5.6% (as at 6 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does Natalia Gemelova do best at?

Lingfield (AW) by strike rate: 6 wins from 63 rides (9.5%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Which yard does Natalia Gemelova ride most for?

John E Long, with 152 rides since 2008 — 45% of the total. That pairing has won 8 (5.3%).

What is Natalia Gemelova's Fair A/E?

0.98, from 334 rides with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Jockey profile

Natalia Gemelova

338 rides in the lifetime window · 135 individual horses

As at 6 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Last ride Mar 2016 100% of rides on the flat

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)

No rides in the last 5 seasons — showing the lifetime record, from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it.

19–338

Wins / Runs

5.6%

Strike rate

n=338

56 (17%)

Placed

0.98

Fair A/E

n=334 · 0.83 incl. margin

−125.12

£1 level stake

n=338 at SP · −37.0%

£114k

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

KTB Rider Profile

Rode around 40 times a season, almost all on the flat, winning on 6% of them — level with the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 0.98). Rode mostly for John E Long — 45% of rides in the window.

Deterministic profile computed from 338 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 6 Nov 2026

KTB at a glance Fired Jul–Aug John E Long: 5.3% from 152 Claiming: 5.7%

The read

The record is strongest at Lingfield (AW) (9.5%, n=63), clear of the rider's 5.6% baseline. It is weakest at Kempton (AW) (2% over 51 rides) — the widest gap in the record. Horses returning fresh after 61+ days have been a poor signal at 1.6% (n=62, Fair A/E 0.31). The market has consistently overbet first rides on a horse: 3.3% strike, Fair A/E 0.72 and −70.62 to a £1 stake over 123 rides — those runners underperformed what the price implied. John E Long supplied 45% of the rides and matches the rider's average almost exactly (5.3%, A/E 0.97) — the market has that partnership priced right. The rider also read well at trips under 6f (15.4%, n=39) and in Class 4 (10.8%, n=37). The market has also underrated the rider off a 31-60-day break: Fair A/E 1.77 across 54 rides (9.3% strike, +4.00 to a £1 stake). The record read poorly over 1m2f – 1m4f — 0% over 41 rides, 5.6pts below the baseline. The standout partner of the record was Cativo Cavallino (GB) — 10 wins from 54 rides together. Seasonally, the rider fired Jul–Aug.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Riding patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 5.6% baseline

First ride on the horse · first captured pairing

3.3%−2.3

n=123 · A/E 0.72 · £1 −70.62

Last-time-out winners · previous run was a win

5%−0.6

n=20 · A/E 0.47 · £1 −15.50

Fresh horses · 61+ days off

1.6%−4.0

n=62 · A/E 0.31 · £1 −52.50

When favourite

50%

n=2 · A/E 1.69 · £1 +0.38

Claiming rides · riding with a claim

5.7%+0.1

n=334 · A/E 0.99 · £1 −121.12

Big fields · 14+ runners

5.3%−0.3

n=57 · A/E 1.43 · £1 −2.00

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

0%−5.6

n=2 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −2.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 5.6% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

At trips under 6f 15.4% vs 5.6% · n=39

Over 1m2f – 1m4f 0% vs 5.6% · n=41

In Class 4 10.8% vs 5.6% · n=37

At Lingfield (AW) 9.5% vs 5.6% · n=63

Off a 31-60-day break 9.3% vs 5.6% · n=54

At Kempton (AW) 2% vs 5.6% · n=51

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1

Flat 337 19 5.6% −124.12

Chase 1 0 0% −1.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Standard (AW) 165 9 5.5% −54.50

Good to Firm 57 3 5.3% −25.50

Good 51 2 3.9% −31.00

Good to Soft 29 2 6.9% −11.00

Soft 24 2 8.3% −17.12

Firm 8 0 0% −8.00

Heavy 4 1 25% +22.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Lingfield (AW) 63 6 9.5% +26.50

Kempton (AW) 51 1 2% −43.00

Southwell (AW) 29 2 6.9% −16.00

Lingfield 18 0 0% −18.00

Wolverhampton (AW) 18 0 0% −18.00

Yarmouth 17 1 5.9% −5.00

Redcar 12 1 8.3% +5.00

Brighton 11 0 0% −11.00

Bath 8 2 25% +13.00

Folkestone 8 0 0% −8.00

Leicester 7 1 14.3% −4.62

Nottingham 7 0 0% −7.00

Beverley 7 0 0% −7.00

Salisbury 7 0 0% −7.00

Thirsk 6 0 0% −6.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 6 151 5 3.3% −114.12

Class 5 113 8 7.1% −8.50

Class 4 37 4 10.8% +22.50

Class 2 14 1 7.1% −8.00

Class 3 13 1 7.7% −7.00

Class 7 8 0 0% −8.00

Class 1 2 0 0% −2.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 2 1 50% 1.69 +0.38

2nd–3rd fav 30 6 20% 1.46 +3.50

4th–6th fav 102 6 5.9% 0.74 −38.00

7th+ in betting 204 6 2.9% 0.92 −91.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses ridden

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Cativo Cavallino (GB) 45 5 16 22 Dec 13

For Life (IRE) 24 3 5 27 Jun 13

Pretty Bonnie (GB) 19 5 9 23 Oct 10

Affectionate Lady (IRE) 10 1 3 9 Mar 16

Briannsta (IRE) 9 0 1 19 May 10

Ice Apple (GB) 8 0 1 20 Aug 14

Bollin Franny (GB) 8 0 2 5 Nov 08

Custom House (IRE) 7 0 1 6 Mar 14

Chandrayaan (GB) 7 0 1 8 Dec 12

Bronze Beau (GB) 6 0 0 3 Oct 15

Rambo Will (GB) 6 1 2 11 Jul 14

Red Biba (IRE) 5 0 0 18 Feb 14

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 135 horses ridden in this window — each ran at least 1 time. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

By month

strike by month, lifetime

JFMAMJJASOND

110603681091000

A flat rider: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Riding for

same window · biggest samples first

Main yardJohn E Long

45% of all rides
5.3% SR · A/E 0.97

TrainerRWSR£1

John E Long 152 8 5.3% −42.50

Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2005→

Archived wins

£224k

Prize money

2007

Best season · 13 wins

In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.

Kabeer (GB) — Get Away To Pontin's Handicap Southwell (AW) · Jan 2008 · Class 2

£10,525

Pretty Bonnie (GB) — E.b.f. Park Suite Fillies' Handicap Pontefract · Jun 2010 · Class 3

£6,854

Pretty Bonnie (GB) — Bathwick Tyres Handicap Bath · Aug 2008 · Class 4

£6,800

Notable horses

Cativo Cavallino (GB) For Life (IRE) Pretty Bonnie (GB) Kabeer (GB) Lady Taverner (GB) Fortunes Favourite (GB)

Sires of the horses ridden

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Bertolini (USA) 7.8% · 5–64

Progeny have won 8% of 7,851 runs since 2008 (518 horses).

Bachir (IRE) 12.5% · 3–24

Progeny have won 8.6% of 395 runs since 2008 (40 horses).

Kyllachy (GB) 21.7% · 5–23

Progeny have won 9.9% of 13,847 runs since 2008 (800 horses). Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 5.8% from 468.

Dandy Man (IRE) 8.3% · 1–12

Progeny have won 9.1% of 14,980 runs since 2013 (930 horses). Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 5.3% from 170.

Bluebird (USA) 0% · 0–9

Progeny have won 7.3% of 260 runs since 2008 (17 horses).

Iceman (GB) 0% · 0–8

Progeny have won 8.1% of 2,215 runs since 2010 (119 horses). Strongest on Soft going: 12.1% from 206. Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 4.4% from 137.

Top line: the rider's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 6 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 647 · newest first

The latest 50 of 647 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 5 January 2005 to 16 March 2016.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

16 Mar 16 Kempton (AW) Gold Beau (FR)T: Kristin Stubbs 32Red.com HandicapClass 5 · 6f · Standard · 10 ran 3rd 10/1

09 Mar 16 Kempton (AW) Affectionate Lady (IRE)T: Keith Reveley 32Red On The App Store HandicapClass 7 · 8f · Standard · 12 ran 3rd 8/1

17 Feb 16 Kempton (AW) Affectionate Lady (IRE)T: Keith Reveley 32Red Casino HandicapClass 6 · 8f · Standard · 13 ran 7th 25/1

03 Feb 16 Kempton (AW) Affectionate Lady (IRE)T: Keith Reveley Robert Dyas HandicapClass 7 · 7f · Standard · 13 ran 5th 20/1

07 Dec 15 Chelmsford City (AW) Lynngale (GB)T: Kristin Stubbs Totepoolliveinfo.com HandicapClass 6 · 10f · Standard · 10 ran 8th 9/1

03 Oct 15 Redcar Bronze Beau (GB)T: Kristin Stubbs Watch Racing UK Anywhere HandicapClass 5 · 5f · Good · 12 ran 8th 22/1

21 Sep 15 Hamilton Affectionate Lady (IRE)T: Keith Reveley toteexacta Pick The 1st And 2nd Handicap (Div 2)Class 6 · 6f · Good · 11 ran 8th 9/2

04 Sep 15 Newcastle Affectionate Lady (IRE)T: Keith Reveley Northumbrian Water HandicapClass 6 · 6f · Good To Soft · 11 ran 5th 4/1

10 Aug 15 Ayr Affectionate Lady (IRE)T: Keith Reveley Racing Uk HandicapClass 6 · 7f · Good To Soft · 12 ran 4th 9/2

11 Jul 15 Hamilton Affectionate Lady (IRE)T: Keith Reveley Hamilton Advertiser HandicapClass 6 · 6f · Good To Soft · 10 ran 1st 4/1

06 Jul 15 Ayr Affectionate Lady (IRE)T: Keith Reveley Racing UK Handicap (Div 2)Class 6 · 6f · Good · 9 ran 3rd 13/2

04 Jul 15 Beverley Lynngale (GB)T: Kristin Stubbs C.g.i. HandicapClass 5 · 8.5f · Good · 9 ran 6th 25/1

22 Jun 15 Wolverhampton (AW) Keene's Pointe (GB)T: Kristin Stubbs Compare The Odds At bookies.com Handicap (Div 2)Class 6 · 7f · Standard · 11 ran 9th 7/1

10 Jun 15 Hamilton Affectionate Lady (IRE)T: Keith Reveley Auchinraith HandicapClass 6 · 5f · Good · 9 ran 5th 13/2

01 Jun 15 Leicester Affectionate Lady (IRE)T: Keith Reveley Follow AtTheRaces On Twitter Handicap (Div 1)Class 6 · 7f · Good To Firm · 12 ran 8th 20/1

04 May 15 Beverley Lynngale (GB)T: Kristin Stubbs Racing Again On Tuesday 12 May HandicapClass 5 · 7.5f · Good · 10 ran 8th 10/1

15 Apr 15 Beverley Lynngale (GB)T: Kristin Stubbs New Season Fillies' HandicapClass 5 · 8.5f · Good · 9 ran 6th 6/1

08 Apr 15 Kempton (AW) Willow Jubilee (GB)T: John E Long Racing UK iPad App Handicap (Div 1)Class 6 · 11f · Standard · 11 ran 10th 66/1

13 Jan 15 Southwell (AW) Rio Cobolo (IRE)T: Keith Reveley Download The Ladbrokes App HandicapClass 6 · 8f · Standard · 10 ran 9th 40/1

27 Dec 14 Southwell (AW) Rio Cobolo (IRE)T: Keith Reveley Download The Ladbrokes App HandicapClass 6 · 8f · Standard · 10 ran 8th 28/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Natalia Gemelova's strike rate?: Natalia Gemelova has won 19 of 338 rides since 2008, a strike rate of 5.6% (as at 6 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Natalia Gemelova do best at?: Lingfield (AW) by strike rate: 6 wins from 63 rides (9.5%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Which yard does Natalia Gemelova ride most for?: John E Long, with 152 rides since 2008 — 45% of the total. That pairing has won 8 (5.3%).
What is Natalia Gemelova's Fair A/E?: 0.98, from 334 rides with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.