What is Geoff Oldroyd's strike rate?

Geoff Oldroyd has won 38 of 217 runners since 2022, a strike rate of 17.5% (as at 20 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does Geoff Oldroyd do best at?

Southwell (AW) by strike rate: 9 wins from 34 runners (26.5%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Who rides most for Geoff Oldroyd?

P J McDonald, with 105 runners since 2022 — 48% of the total. That pairing has won 18 (17.1%).

Is Geoff Oldroyd in form?

Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 4 runners, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.

What is Geoff Oldroyd's Fair A/E?

1.62, from 217 runners with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Trainer profile

Geoff Oldroyd

217 runners in the last 5 seasons · 27 individual horses

As at 20 Oct 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Last runner 3 days ago 100% of runners on the flat

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)

from 1 Jan 2022

38–217

Wins / Runs

17.5%

Strike rate

n=217

76 (35%)

Placed

1.62

Fair A/E

n=217 · 1.35 incl. margin

+108.76

£1 level stake

n=217 at SP · +50.1%

£606k

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

15.1%

KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 40 runners a season, almost all on the flat, winning with 18% of them — beating the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 1.62). With a claiming rider up the record reads 23% (31 runs).

Deterministic profile computed from 217 archived runs (last 5 seasons) · updated 20 Oct 2026

KTB at a glance P J McDonald: 17.1% from 105 Claiming riders: 22.6%

The read

The record is strongest at Southwell (AW) (26.5%, n=34) and Newcastle (AW) (22.4%, n=58) — all clear of the yard's 17.5% baseline. It is weakest at York (7.9% over 38 runners) — the widest gap in the record. Runners with a claiming rider up have been a positive signal at 22.6% (n=31, Fair A/E 2.69), but horses returning fresh after 61+ days have been a poor signal at 8.3% (n=48, Fair A/E 0.90). P J McDonald rides 48% of the entries and matches the yard's average almost exactly (17.1%, A/E 1.33) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. The yard also reads well on Standard (AW) going (23.8%, n=101) and off a 31-60-day break (24%, n=50). 9 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the yard has landed: the totepool Two-Year-Old Trophy at Redcar (Oct 2010, £130,003). The stable star of the record: Just Bond (IRE) — 13 wins from 89 runs for the yard.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 17.5% baseline

Fresh · 61+ days off

8.3%−9.2

n=48 · A/E 0.90 · £1 −24.50

New recruits · first run for the yard

14.3%−3.2

n=7 · A/E 2.17 · £1 −2.50

Debutants · first career start

23.5%+6.0

n=17 · A/E 4.00 · £1 +69.50

First-time headgear · true-first definition

8.3%−9.2

n=12 · A/E 1.41 · £1 +22.00

Headgear returns · back on after a bare run

0%−17.5

n=5 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −5.00

When favourite

40%

n=25 · A/E 1.37 · £1 +5.06

Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle

22.6%+5.1

n=31 · A/E 2.69 · £1 +60.50

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

11.1%−6.4

n=9 · A/E 1.67 · £1 +0.50

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 17.5% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

On last-time-out winners 34.3% vs 17.5% · n=35

At York 7.9% vs 17.5% · n=38

At Southwell (AW) 26.5% vs 17.5% · n=34

On Standard (AW) going 23.8% vs 17.5% · n=101

Off a 31-60-day break 24% vs 17.5% · n=50

At Newcastle (AW) 22.4% vs 17.5% · n=58

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Standard (AW) 101 24 23.8% +83.26

Good to Firm 51 7 13.7% +39.00

Good 38 5 13.2% +5.50

Good to Soft 19 1 5.3% −13.50

Soft 7 1 14.3% −4.50

Heavy 1 0 0% −1.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Newcastle (AW) 58 13 22.4% +71.53

York 38 3 7.9% +7.00

Southwell (AW) 34 9 26.5% +12.73

Doncaster 24 2 8.3% −9.00

Redcar 18 3 16.7% +24.00

Beverley 14 1 7.1% −8.50

Wolverhampton (AW) 8 2 25% +0.00

Thirsk 7 2 28.6% −2.00

Carlisle 5 1 20% +2.50

Catterick 2 0 0% −2.00

Ascot 2 1 50% +7.50

Newmarket 1 0 0% −1.00

Newbury 1 0 0% −1.00

Haydock 1 0 0% −1.00

Kempton (AW) 1 0 0% −1.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 5 69 14 20.3% +83.40

Class 4 53 8 15.1% +9.12

Class 6 41 7 17.1% +22.16

Class 2 34 6 17.6% −5.25

Class 3 11 2 18.2% −1.17

Class 1 9 1 11.1% +0.50

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 31 11 35.5% 1.32 +4.06

2nd–3rd fav 55 14 25.5% 1.63 +19.70

4th–6th fav 49 10 20.4% 2.70 +63.00

7th+ in betting 82 3 3.7% 1.05 +22.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Project Geofin (GB) 25 4 9 10 Oct 26

Doctor Khan Junior (GB) 18 7 9 5 Mar 26

Pocklington (GB) 17 3 8 22 Aug 26

Reginald Charles (GB)from Bryan Smart 16 3 9 16 Oct 26

Air Force One (IRE)from P Twomey 16 5 9 3 Oct 26

Rise Hall (GB)from Martyn Meade 14 0 0 28 Oct 24

Filly One (IRE) 12 4 5 13 Mar 26

Monsieur Bondy (GB) 10 3 4 17 Oct 26

Project Dante (GB)from Bryan Smart 9 1 1 24 Apr 25

Commander Atkinson (GB)then Brian Ellison 8 0 2 13 May 25

Lady Nunthorpe (IRE)from Bryan Smart 8 2 3 20 Feb 25

Margot Robbie (GB) 7 1 3 2 Apr 25

All 27 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 27 horses listed, 9 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from Bryan Smart (6); 18 had their first archived run for this yard.

3 have since run for another yard; 24 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

Current form

significance-gated

Last 14 days

Small sample

1 from 4

Only 4 runners in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.

When the yard fires

strike by month, 5 seasons

JFMAMJJASOND

362525819862614241917

A flat yard: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first

Go-to riderP J McDonald

48% of all rides
17.1% SR · A/E 1.33

RiderRWSR£1

P J McDonald 105 18 17.1% +21.10

Harry Russell 65 12 18.5% +85.50

Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2006→

134

Archived wins

Pattern / graded wins

£1.60m

Prize money

2025

Best season · 15 wins

This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.

Ladies Are Forever (GB) — totepool Two-Year-Old Trophy (Listed) Redcar · Oct 2010 · Listed

£130,003

Air Force One (IRE) — Hong Kong Jockey Club World Pool Handicap Stakes (Heritage Handicap) York · Aug 2026 · Class 2

£69,579

Air Force One (IRE) — Betfred Portland (Class 2 Heritage Handicap) Doncaster · Sep 2026 · Class 2

£51,540

Notable horses

Just Bond (IRE) Alfred Hutchinson (GB) Forever's Girl (GB) Ladies Are Forever (GB) Chosen Forever (GB) Doctor Khan Junior (GB)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Calyx (GB) 21.6% · 8–37

Progeny have won 13.4% of 1,485 runs since 2008 (172 horses). Weakest on Good to Soft going: 8.9% from 168. Weakest at trips under 6f (all codes): 9.9% from 111.

Muhaarar (GB) 21.6% · 8–37

Progeny have won 11.6% of 4,781 runs since 2008 (411 horses).

Mehmas (IRE) 36.4% · 8–22

Progeny have won 11.6% of 8,107 runs since 2008 (747 horses).

Showcasing (GB) 10% · 2–20

Progeny have won 10.1% of 11,577 runs since 2008 (996 horses). Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 5.6% from 108.

Zoustar (AUS) 16.7% · 3–18

Progeny have won 10.8% of 2,736 runs since 2008 (313 horses). Strongest at trips under 6f (all codes): 14.3% from 328. Weakest over 1m2f – 1m4f (all codes): 3.6% from 193.

Blue Point (IRE) 17.6% · 3–17

Progeny have won 14% of 3,383 runs since 2008 (412 horses). Strongest on Good to Soft going: 17% from 335. Weakest over 1m2f – 1m4f (all codes): 10.7% from 206.

Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 20 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 1,304 · newest first

The latest 50 of 1,304 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 15 April 2006 to 17 October 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

17 Oct 26 Southwell (AW) Monsieur Bondy (GB)J: Cam Hardie Saturday 24th October Gents Night Handicap Stakes (Div I)Class 5 · 7f · Standard · 9 ran 1st 11/4

16 Oct 26 Redcar Reginald Charles (GB)J: P. J. McDonald racingtv.com Handicap StakesClass 6 · 7f · Good · 18 ran 8th 4/1

10 Oct 26 York Project Geofin (GB)J: P. J. McDonald Sky Bet Price Boosts Handicap Stakes (gbbplus Race)Class 4 · 10.5f · Good To Soft · 19 ran 13th 28/1

09 Oct 26 Newmarket In The Black (GB)J: P. J. McDonald Newmarket Academy Godolphin Beacon Project Cornwallis Stakes (Group 3)Class 1 · 5f · Good · 13 ran 2nd 9/2

03 Oct 26 Ascot Air Force One (IRE)J: P. J. McDonald Betmgm Rous Stakes (Listed Race)Class 1 · 5f · Good To Firm · 11 ran 1st 17/2

25 Sep 26 Newcastle (AW) Monsieur Bondy (GB)J: P. J. McDonald Today's Wonderful Sponsors Handicap StakesClass 5 · 7f · Standard · 11 ran 10th 15/2

25 Sep 26 Newcastle (AW) Reginald Charles (GB)J: P. J. McDonald Mwh Treatment Handicap StakesClass 6 · 8f · Standard · 11 ran 2nd 4/1

22 Sep 26 Southwell (AW) Managing Director (IRE)J: P. J. McDonald Free Bets On attheraces.com Handicap StakesClass 5 · 5f · Standard · 7 ran 4th 5/6F

12 Sep 26 Doncaster Air Force One (IRE)J: Clifford Lee Betfred Portland (Class 2 Heritage Handicap)Class 2 · 5.5f · Good · 21 ran 1st 11/2

11 Sep 26 Doncaster In The Black (GB)J: P J McDonald Carlsberg Danish Pilsner Flying Childers Stakes (Group 2)Class 1 · 5f · Good · 11 ran 5th 50/1

06 Sep 26 York Managing Director (IRE)J: P J McDonald Fine Details Car Valeting Sprint Handicap StakesClass 4 · 5.5f · Good To Soft · 21 ran 11th 13/2

29 Aug 26 Beverley Project Geofin (GB)J: P J McDonald Dearing Plastics Celebrating 40 Years Handicap StakesClass 5 · 10f · Soft · 8 ran 8th 17/2

22 Aug 26 York Pocklington (GB)J: Clifford Lee Sky Bet Constantine Handicap Stakes (Heritage Handicap)Class 2 · 6f · Good To Soft · 20 ran 13th 40/1

22 Aug 26 York Air Force One (IRE)J: P J McDonald Sky Bet Constantine Handicap Stakes (Heritage Handicap)Class 2 · 6f · Good To Soft · 20 ran 8th 4/1

20 Aug 26 York In The Black (GB)J: P J McDonald Sky Bet Lowther Stakes (Group 2)Class 1 · 6f · Good To Soft · 17 ran 8th 25/1

19 Aug 26 York Air Force One (IRE)J: P J McDonald Hong Kong Jockey Club World Pool Handicap Stakes (Heritage Handicap)Class 2 · 5.5f · Good · 21 ran 1st 13/2

15 Aug 26 Doncaster Project Geofin (GB)J: Donagh Murphy Suit Direct At Meadowhall Apprentice Handicap StakesClass 5 · 10f · Good To Firm · 7 ran 3rd 11/4J

14 Aug 26 Thirsk Managing Director (IRE)J: P J McDonald Heineken 0% Handicap StakesClass 4 · 5f · Good · 9 ran 2nd 7/2

31 Jul 26 Newcastle (AW) Reginald Charles (GB)J: P J McDonald Quinnbet Extra Place Handicap Stakes (Div I)Class 6 · 7f · Standard / Slow · 10 ran 3rd 6/4F

25 Jul 26 York Pocklington (GB)J: Joanna Mason Sky Bet Dash (Class 2 Heritage Handicap)Class 2 · 6f · Good To Firm · 21 ran 14th 11/2

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Geoff Oldroyd's strike rate?: Geoff Oldroyd has won 38 of 217 runners since 2022, a strike rate of 17.5% (as at 20 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Geoff Oldroyd do best at?: Southwell (AW) by strike rate: 9 wins from 34 runners (26.5%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for Geoff Oldroyd?: P J McDonald, with 105 runners since 2022 — 48% of the total. That pairing has won 18 (17.1%).
Is Geoff Oldroyd in form?: Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 4 runners, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is Geoff Oldroyd's Fair A/E?: 1.62, from 217 runners with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.