What is Neil Chalmers's strike rate?

Neil Chalmers has won 56 of 1,009 rides since 2008, a strike rate of 5.6% (as at 15 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does Neil Chalmers do best at?

Brighton by strike rate: 6 wins from 57 rides (10.5%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Which yard does Neil Chalmers ride most for?

John Bridger, with 280 rides since 2008 — 28% of the total. That pairing has won 18 (6.4%).

What is Neil Chalmers's Fair A/E?

0.98, from 1,004 rides with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Jockey profile

Neil Chalmers

1,009 rides in the lifetime window · 387 individual horses

As at 15 Oct 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Last ride Jun 2012 100% of rides on the flat

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)

No rides in the last 5 seasons — showing the lifetime record, from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it.

56–1,009

Wins / Runs

5.6%

Strike rate

n=1,009

183 (18%)

Placed

0.98

Fair A/E

n=1,004 · 0.84 incl. margin

−235.20

£1 level stake

n=1,009 at SP · −23.3%

£260k

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

1.9%

KTB Rider Profile

Rode around 200 times a season, almost all on the flat, winning on 6% of them — level with the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 0.98). Riding last-time-out winners the record reads 15% (65 rides).

Deterministic profile computed from 1,009 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 15 Oct 2026

KTB at a glance Fired Jan–Feb John Bridger: 6.4% from 280 LTO winners: 15.4% Claiming: 11.1%

The read

The record is strongest at Brighton (10.5%, n=57), clear of the rider's 5.6% baseline. It is weakest at Goodwood (0% over 34 rides) — the widest gap in the record. Rides on last-time-out winners have been a positive signal at 15.4% (n=65, Fair A/E 1.26). The market has consistently overbet rides in big fields of 14 or more: 3.2% strike, Fair A/E 0.83 and −29.00 to a £1 stake over 125 rides — those runners underperformed what the price implied. John Bridger supplied 28% of the rides and matches the rider's average almost exactly (6.4%, A/E 1.16) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. The rider also read well on Good to Soft going (11.1%, n=54). The standout partner of the record was Megalala (IRE) — 6 wins from 34 rides together. Seasonally, the rider fired Jan–Feb.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Riding patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 5.6% baseline

First ride on the horse · first captured pairing

4%−1.6

n=348 · A/E 1.01 · £1 −9.00

Last-time-out winners · previous run was a win

15.4%+9.8

n=65 · A/E 1.26 · £1 +10.93

Fresh horses · 61+ days off

2.9%−2.7

n=136 · A/E 0.85 · £1 +54.00

When favourite

15.8%

n=19 · A/E 0.63 · £1 −10.28

Claiming rides · riding with a claim

11.1%+5.5

n=45 · A/E 1.29 · £1 +15.50

Big fields · 14+ runners

3.2%−2.4

n=125 · A/E 0.83 · £1 −29.00

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

0%−5.6

n=4 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −4.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 5.6% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

On last-time-out winners 15.4% vs 5.6% · n=65

With Sheena West 12.1% vs 5.6% · n=33

On Good to Soft going 11.1% vs 5.6% · n=54

When claiming 11.1% vs 5.6% · n=45

At Brighton 10.5% vs 5.6% · n=57

At Goodwood 0% vs 5.6% · n=34

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Standard (AW) 530 25 4.7% −239.17

Good to Firm 186 11 5.9% −75.38

Good 171 10 5.8% +84.10

Good to Soft 54 6 11.1% +0.25

Soft 36 1 2.8% −27.00

Firm 26 3 11.5% +28.00

Heavy 6 0 0% −6.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Kempton (AW) 199 12 6% −71.67

Wolverhampton (AW) 145 4 2.8% −92.00

Lingfield (AW) 106 3 2.8% −68.50

Southwell (AW) 72 6 8.3% +1.00

Brighton 57 6 10.5% −10.63

Chepstow 56 2 3.6% +28.00

Windsor 47 3 6.4% −25.00

Bath 46 4 8.7% +6.10

Goodwood 34 0 0% −34.00

Salisbury 30 1 3.3% −9.00

Lingfield 27 2 7.4% −10.00

Warwick 25 2 8% +2.00

Nottingham 22 2 9.1% +6.00

Newbury 20 0 0% −20.00

Yarmouth 16 3 18.8% +96.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 6 475 24 5.1% −173.32

Class 5 357 19 5.3% −55.38

Class 4 115 9 7.8% +6.00

Class 7 38 2 5.3% −24.50

Class 3 12 2 16.7% +24.00

Class 2 8 0 0% −8.00

Class 1 4 0 0% −4.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 22 3 13.6% 0.57 −13.28

2nd–3rd fav 97 17 17.5% 1.15 −4.42

4th–6th fav 292 21 7.2% 1.01 −15.50

7th+ in betting 598 15 2.5% 0.94 −202.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses ridden

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Megalala (IRE) 28 6 14 10 Nov 11

The Lock Master (IRE) 21 2 10 13 Apr 12

Inquisitress (GB) 20 2 3 30 Jan 11

Starwatch (GB) 19 3 5 8 Aug 11

Silvee (GB) 16 2 4 21 Sep 11

Almahaza (IRE) 16 4 7 15 Jun 11

Fairy Tales (GB) 13 0 2 6 Aug 11

Too Grand (GB) 13 1 3 4 Feb 09

Warrior Nation (FR) 12 0 0 4 Jan 12

Choral Festival (GB) 12 2 4 18 Nov 11

Welsh Inlet (IRE) 12 0 2 16 Nov 11

Spanish Acclaim (GB) 11 2 2 20 Aug 11

The 60 most-raced of 387 horses ridden in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

By month

strike by month, lifetime

JFMAMJJASOND

991557964501

A flat rider: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Riding for

same window · biggest samples first

Main yardJohn Bridger

28% of all rides
6.4% SR · A/E 1.16

TrainerRWSR£1

John Bridger 280 18 6.4% −91.25

Michael Appleby 131 11 8.4% +39.10

Bryn Palling 69 4 5.8% −25.00

Andrew Balding 63 4 6.3% −12.38

Adrian Chamberlain 52 4 7.7% −7.00

Alan Bailey 52 3 5.8% +71.50

Sheena West 33 4 12.1% −14.17

Lucinda Featherstone 32 2 6.3% +13.00

Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2005→

Archived wins

£457k

Prize money

2011

Best season · 17 wins

In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.

Lowther (GB) — Highstreetvouchers.com Handicap Chester · Jun 2009 · Class 3

£8,831

Foundation Room (IRE) — totequadpot Fillies' Conditions Stakes Salisbury · May 2008 · Class 3

£6,476

Spanish Acclaim (GB) — Warwick For All Your Outside Events Handicap Warwick · Jul 2010 · Class 4

£6,152

Notable horses

Megalala (IRE) Art Scholar (IRE) Almahaza (IRE) Smokey The Bear (GB) Starwatch (GB) Icannshift (IRE)

Sires of the horses ridden

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Petardia (GB) 21.4% · 6–28

Progeny have won 11.4% of 184 runs since 2008 (6 horses). Strongest over 1m2f – 1m4f (all codes): 16.4% from 110.

Compton Place (GB) 3.8% · 1–26

Progeny have won 8.5% of 8,347 runs since 2008 (515 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 11.5% from 165.

Hernando (FR) 7.7% · 2–26

Progeny have won 12.1% of 3,531 runs since 2008 (273 horses). Weakest over 6f – 7f (all codes): 7.5% from 120.

Key Of Luck (USA) 8% · 2–25

Progeny have won 9.1% of 2,326 runs since 2008 (171 horses). Weakest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 5.1% from 136.

Bertolini (USA) 4.5% · 1–22

Progeny have won 8% of 7,851 runs since 2008 (518 horses).

Ishiguru (USA) 0% · 0–22

Progeny have won 10.4% of 3,199 runs since 2008 (156 horses). Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 6.5% from 155.

Top line: the rider's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 15 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 1,766 · newest first

The latest 50 of 1,766 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 4 January 2005 to 16 June 2012.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

16 Jun 12 Bath Madam Tessa (IRE)T: Bryn Palling Brandon Trust Great Western Bike Ride HandicapClass 6 · 11.5f · Good · 11 ran 9th 18/1

16 Jun 12 Bath Corrib (IRE)T: Bryn Palling brandontrust.org HandicapClass 6 · 10f · Good · 14 ran 4th 17/2

05 Jun 12 Yarmouth Tresabella (GB)T: Michael Appleby Oddschecker.Mobi HandicapClass 6 · 8f · Good To Firm · 16 ran 11th 50/1

05 Jun 12 Yarmouth Tysoe Lad (GB)T: Michael Appleby Injured Jockeys Fund Maiden Stakes (Div 2)Class 5 · 8f · Good To Firm · 9 ran 8th 125/1

05 Jun 12 Yarmouth Al Sirat (GB)T: Michael Appleby Injured Jockeys Fund Maiden Stakes (Div 1)Class 5 · 8f · Good To Firm · 10 ran 10th 50/1

26 May 12 Newbury Vestibule (GB)T: Eve Johnson Houghton Relyon Cleaning Newbury Maiden Auction Fillies' StakesClass 5 · 6f · Good To Firm · 15 ran 2nd 14/1

23 May 12 Chepstow Aureate (GB)T: Brian Forsey digibet.com HandicapClass 6 · 12f · Good · 16 ran 12th 33/1

19 May 12 Newbury Stellar Express (IRE)T: Michael Appleby Get Your Bet On At Blue Square Fillies' Handicap (Str)Class 4 · 7f · Good · 17 ran 9th 25/1

09 May 12 Southwell (AW) Demora (GB)T: Michael Appleby World Horse Welfare Celebrates 85 Years Maiden StakesClass 5 · 5f · Standard · 8 ran 2nd 28/1

01 May 12 Lingfield (AW) Anniesuella (IRE)T: Martin Bosley British Stallion Studs Supporting British Racing E.B.F. Maiden Fillies' StakesClass 5 · 7f · Standard · 14 ran 14th 200/1

24 Apr 12 Wolverhampton (AW) Derek The Diamond (GB)T: Michael Appleby 32red Casino HandicapClass 6 · 9.5f · Standard · 9 ran 7th 33/1

23 Apr 12 Windsor Magical Marvin (GB)T: Michael Appleby Windsor Vehicle Leasing Maiden StakesClass 5 · 10f · Soft · 15 ran 14th 200/1

16 Apr 12 Windsor Micquus (IRE)T: Andrew Balding Windsor Vehicle Leasing wvl.com Maiden Stakes (Div 2)Class 5 · 10f · Good · 9 ran 6th 25/1

14 Apr 12 Wolverhampton (AW) Demora (GB)T: Michael Appleby 32 Free At 32Red.com Median Auction Maiden StakesClass 6 · 5f · Standard · 6 ran 6th 28/1

14 Apr 12 Wolverhampton (AW) Cheery Cat (USA)T: Richard Ford High Moor Racing Says Thanks - Almaty Express HandicapClass 6 · 6f · Standard · 12 ran 6th 16/1

13 Apr 12 Leicester The Lock Master (IRE)T: Michael Appleby Play Totescoop6 Tomorrow At Totepool.com HandicapClass 5 · 8f · Soft · 14 ran 4th 7/1

11 Apr 12 Catterick Insolenceofoffice (IRE)T: Richard Ford Happy 40th Birthday Kirsten Lawrence HandicapClass 5 · 7f · Good · 13 ran 10th 50/1

11 Apr 12 Catterick Brian's Best (GB)T: Richard Ford Catterick Flat Season Starts Today HandicapClass 6 · 5f · Good · 8 ran 8th 80/1

10 Apr 12 Pontefract The Lock Master (IRE)T: Michael Appleby Racing On Monday 23rd April HandicapClass 5 · 10f · Good · 17 ran 12th 25/1

10 Apr 12 Pontefract Derek The Diamond (GB)T: Michael Appleby High-Rise Median Auction Maiden StakesClass 4 · 10f · Good · 13 ran 7th 200/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Neil Chalmers's strike rate?: Neil Chalmers has won 56 of 1,009 rides since 2008, a strike rate of 5.6% (as at 15 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Neil Chalmers do best at?: Brighton by strike rate: 6 wins from 57 rides (10.5%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Which yard does Neil Chalmers ride most for?: John Bridger, with 280 rides since 2008 — 28% of the total. That pairing has won 18 (6.4%).
What is Neil Chalmers's Fair A/E?: 0.98, from 1,004 rides with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.