What is Alan Bailey's strike rate?

Alan Bailey has won 242 of 2,383 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 10.2% (as at 15 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does Alan Bailey do best at?

Brighton by strike rate: 17 wins from 77 runners (22.1%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Who rides most for Alan Bailey?

Natasha Eaton, with 223 runners since 2008 — 9% of the total. That pairing has won 18 (8.1%).

What is Alan Bailey's Fair A/E?

1.02, from 2,370 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Trainer profile

Alan Bailey

2,383 runners in the lifetime window · 161 individual horses

As at 15 Oct 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Last runner Feb 2020 97% of runners on the flat

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)

No runners in the last 5 seasons — showing the lifetime record, from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it.

242–2,383

Wins / Runs

10.2%

Strike rate

n=2,383

687 (29%)

Placed

1.02

Fair A/E

n=2,370 · 0.89 incl. margin

−381.45

£1 level stake

n=2,383 at SP · −16.0%

£2.02m

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

27.3%

KTB Yard Profile

Sent out around 180 runners a season, almost all on the flat, winning with 10% of them — level with the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 1.02). Horses with headgear back on after a bare run strike at 13% (100 runs).

Deterministic profile computed from 2,383 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 15 Oct 2026

KTB at a glance Fired Feb–Apr 33.1% when favourite Natasha Eaton: 8.1% from 223 Headgear returns: 13% Sent off the favourite in 7% of races

The read

The record is strongest at Brighton (22.1%, n=77) and Southwell (AW) (19%, n=168) — all clear of the yard's 10.2% baseline. New recruits from other stables on their first run struggle at 5.7% (n=53, Fair A/E 0.67). Natasha Eaton rode 9% of the entries and sits below the yard's average (8.1% vs 10.2%, A/E 0.88). The record read poorly in Hurdle races — 1.8% over 56 runners, 8.4pts below the baseline. 3 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the yard has landed: the Ladbrokes Mobile Handicap at Ascot (Sep 2011, £97,035). The stable star of the record was Imprimis Tagula (IRE) — 15 wins from 90 runs for the yard. Seasonally, the yard fired Feb–Apr.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 10.2% baseline

Fresh · 61+ days off

7.1%−3.1

n=238 · A/E 0.96 · £1 +30.29

New recruits · first run for the yard

5.7%−4.5

n=53 · A/E 0.67 · £1 −24.00

Debutants · first career start

6.9%−3.3

n=101 · A/E 1.26 · £1 −63.67

First-time headgear · true-first definition

7%−3.2

n=86 · A/E 0.81 · £1 −30.50

Headgear returns · back on after a bare run

13%+2.8

n=100 · A/E 1.23 · £1 −8.77

When favourite

33.1%

n=163 · A/E 1.11 · £1 −5.09

Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle

9.8%−0.4

n=952 · A/E 1.01 · £1 −125.99

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

6.4%−3.8

n=47 · A/E 0.85 · £1 −27.50

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 10.2% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

At Brighton 22.1% vs 10.2% · n=77

At Southwell (AW) 19% vs 10.2% · n=168

With Cathy Gannon 21.1% vs 10.2% · n=57

On last-time-out winners 17.8% vs 10.2% · n=242

With Robert Winston 17.6% vs 10.2% · n=136

In Hurdle races 1.8% vs 10.2% · n=56

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1

Flat 2,318 241 10.4% −320.45

Hurdle 56 1 1.8% −52.00

NH Flat 7 0 0% −7.00

Chase 2 0 0% −2.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Standard (AW) 1,267 144 11.4% −161.10

Good to Firm 435 41 9.4% −130.53

Good 326 28 8.6% +13.45

Good to Soft 174 15 8.6% −46.50

Soft 133 10 7.5% −53.87

Heavy 25 1 4% −12.00

Firm 23 3 13% +9.10

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Wolverhampton (AW) 457 54 11.8% +5.58

Lingfield (AW) 264 26 9.8% −93.95

Kempton (AW) 226 20 8.8% −112.65

Southwell (AW) 168 32 19% +120.47

Chelmsford (AW) 139 8 5.8% −84.25

Yarmouth 137 9 6.6% +10.00

Newmarket 110 4 3.6% −62.50

Chester 101 11 10.9% +7.20

Newmarket 77 4 5.2% −27.00

Brighton 77 17 22.1% +13.08

Ayr 75 9 12% −11.92

Doncaster 49 4 8.2% +2.75

Haydock 48 6 12.5% +12.00

Nottingham 46 3 6.5% −9.00

Windsor 44 5 11.4% −8.67

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 6 776 86 11.1% −218.27

Class 5 608 67 11% +64.39

Class 4 522 44 8.4% −181.57

Class 2 215 21 9.8% +28.00

Class 3 199 19 9.5% −41.75

Class 1 47 3 6.4% −27.50

Class 7 16 2 12.5% −4.75

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 214 63 29.4% 1.04 −24.91

2nd–3rd fav 498 87 17.5% 1.10 −25.54

4th–6th fav 788 65 8.2% 0.98 −137.00

7th+ in betting 883 27 3.1% 0.86 −194.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Imprimis Tagula (IRE) 82 13 29 7 Mar 13

Go Far (GB) 70 9 25 15 Dec 18

Dazzling Valentine (GB) 65 6 19 29 May 14

Vimy Ridge (GB)from Richard Fahey 58 4 15 18 Jun 19

Baddilini (GB) 53 5 14 17 Nov 16

St Ignatius (GB)from Michael Appleby 52 8 16 2 Nov 14

Autumn Blades (IRE)from J W Hills · then Ruth Carr 51 7 26 12 Aug 11

Megaleka (GB)from Chris Fairhurst 49 8 16 18 Sep 15

So Is She (IRE) 48 4 20 6 Aug 12

Strictly Art (IRE)then Denis Quinn 46 4 17 26 Oct 19

Kidlat (GB)from Brendan Powell · then Hans Adielsson 43 5 16 26 Jan 12

Strictly Carter (GB) 41 3 15 24 Oct 18

The 60 most-raced of 161 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 60 horses listed, 18 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from Chris Fairhurst (2); 42 had their first archived run for this yard.

20 have since run for another yard, most often for Joseph Parr (2) and Paul D'Arcy (2); 40 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

When the yard fires

strike by month, lifetime

JFMAMJJASOND

1018171497410119712

A flat yard: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first

Go-to riderNatasha Eaton

9% of all rides
8.1% SR · A/E 0.88

RiderRWSR£1

Natasha Eaton 223 18 8.1% −79.00

Robert Winston 136 24 17.6% −18.52

Tim Clark 106 13 12.3% +19.68

Robert Tart 103 9 8.7% −52.00

Franny Norton 75 7 9.3% −8.05

David Probert 63 8 12.7% +0.63

Liam Jones 60 7 11.7% +4.50

Cathy Gannon 57 12 21.1% +4.10

Joshua Bryan 57 7 12.3% −16.00

Darragh Keenan 56 7 12.5% −7.25

Dominic Fox 55 6 10.9% +22.50

Graham Gibbons 52 6 11.5% −21.75

Muted rows are under 30 rides.

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2005→

279

Archived wins

Pattern / graded wins

£2.31m

Prize money

2011

Best season · 41 wins

In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.

Barbican (GB) — Ladbrokes Mobile Handicap (Heritage Handicap) Ascot · Sep 2011 · Class 2

£97,035

Aspen Darlin (IRE) — Laundry Cottage Stud Firth Of Clyde Stakes (Fillies Group 3) Ayr · Sep 2008 · Group 3

£45,416

Baddilini (GB) — Ladbrokes Handicap Lingfield (AW) · Feb 2015 · Class 2

£28,013

Notable horses

Imprimis Tagula (IRE) Go Far (GB) St Ignatius (GB) Megaleka (GB) Autumn Blades (IRE) Law Maker (GB)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Cape Cross (IRE) 10% · 9–90

Progeny have won 13.3% of 12,754 runs since 2008 (988 horses). Weakest on Heavy going: 8.4% from 477. Weakest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 7.8% from 230.

Tagula (IRE) 15.9% · 13–82

Progeny have won 9.1% of 5,557 runs since 2008 (382 horses). Weakest over 1m – 1m1f (all codes): 6.1% from 909.

Indian Haven (GB) 9.2% · 7–76

Progeny have won 8.2% of 1,799 runs since 2008 (153 horses). Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 5.1% from 157.

Beat All (USA) 12.9% · 9–70

Progeny have won 7% of 2,513 runs since 2008 (254 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 11.6% from 320. Weakest on Heavy going: 3.6% from 192. Strongest over 1m – 1m1f (all codes): 12.5% from 120.

Dutch Art (GB) 12.9% · 9–70

Progeny have won 12.2% of 8,106 runs since 2008 (600 horses). Strongest at trips under 6f (all codes): 18.2% from 699. Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 9% from 365.

Oratorio (IRE) 8.8% · 6–68

Progeny have won 10.6% of 5,063 runs since 2008 (370 horses). Weakest on Good to Soft going: 7.3% from 455.

Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 15 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 2,971 · newest first

The latest 50 of 2,971 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 10 January 2005 to 25 February 2020.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

25 Feb 20 Lingfield (AW) Come On Bear (IRE)J: George Rooke Bombardier Golden Beer Apprentice HandicapClass 6 · 7f · Standard · 11 ran 2nd 5/4F

22 Feb 20 Chelmsford City (AW) Grasmere (IRE)J: Gavin Ashton May Bank Holiday Family Fun Day Classified StakesClass 6 · 10f · Standard · 9 ran 5th 20/1

21 Feb 20 Lingfield (AW) Esspeegee (GB)J: Gavin Ashton Play 4 To Score At Betway HandicapClass 6 · 12f · Standard · 14 ran 9th 66/1

13 Feb 20 Chelmsford City (AW) Come On Bear (IRE)J: George Rooke Good Friday Spring Country Fair HandicapClass 7 · 7f · Standard · 11 ran 1st 7/4F

12 Feb 20 Kempton (AW) Baltic Eagle (GER)J: Martin Dwyer 32Red Casino HandicapClass 5 · 16f · Standard To Slow · 11 ran 8th 25/1

08 Feb 20 Wolverhampton (AW) Grasmere (IRE)J: Miss Emma Jack Bombardier British Hopped Amber Beer Amateur Riders' Handicap (Div 1)Class 6 · 8.5f · Standard · 10 ran 8th 25/1

06 Feb 20 Newcastle (AW) Clem A (GB)J: Jack Mitchell Betway HandicapClass 5 · 10f · Standard To Slow · 12 ran 3rd 10/3

03 Feb 20 Wolverhampton (AW) Come On Bear (IRE)J: George Rooke Bombardier All Weather 'Hands And Heels' Series Apprentice Handicap (Div 2)Class 6 · 7f · Standard · 10 ran 1st 5/1

31 Jan 20 Lingfield (AW) Sir Hamilton (IRE)J: Jack Mitchell Bombardier Golden Beer HandicapClass 5 · 8f · Standard · 7 ran 6th 16/1

28 Jan 20 Southwell (AW) Gnaad (IRE)J: David Probert Betway Heed Your Hunch HandicapClass 5 · 6f · Standard · 9 ran 9th 6/1

06 Jan 20 Wolverhampton (AW) Clem A (GB)J: Jack Mitchell betyourway At Betway HandicapClass 5 · 9.5f · Standard · 12 ran 1st 7/2F

30 Dec 19 Lingfield (AW) Come On Bear (IRE)J: David Probert Bombardier 'March To Your Own Drum' HandicapClass 6 · 7f · Standard · 12 ran 4th 16/1

30 Dec 19 Lingfield (AW) Your Mothers' Eyes (GB)J: David Probert Bombardier Golden Beer HandicapClass 6 · 8f · Standard · 10 ran 8th 14/1

28 Dec 19 Lingfield (AW) Gnaad (IRE)J: Darragh Keenan Betway HandicapClass 5 · 6f · Standard · 11 ran 4th 12/1

20 Dec 19 Wolverhampton (AW) Clem A (GB)J: Jack Mitchell Betway Play 4 To Score At Betway HandicapClass 6 · 9.5f · Standard · 10 ran 1st 9/2C

18 Dec 19 Lingfield (AW) Baltic Eagle (GER)J: Martin Dwyer Betway HandicapClass 4 · 10f · Standard · 10 ran 9th 33/1

16 Dec 19 Wolverhampton (AW) Your Mothers' Eyes (GB)J: Joey Haynes Bombardier Golden Beer HandicapClass 6 · 8.5f · Standard · 11 ran 4th 25/1

16 Dec 19 Wolverhampton (AW) Sir Hamilton (IRE)J: George Eddery Betway Amateur Riders' HandicapClass 5 · 9.5f · Standard · 12 ran 12th 12/1

10 Dec 19 Wolverhampton (AW) Maryellen (GB)J: Luke Morris Bombardier Golden Beer Selling HandicapClass 6 · 8.5f · Standard · 13 ran 9th 50/1

07 Dec 19 Wolverhampton (AW) Clem A (GB)J: Luke Morris Bombardier British Hopped Amber Beer HandicapClass 6 · 8.5f · Standard · 13 ran 5th 25/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Alan Bailey's strike rate?: Alan Bailey has won 242 of 2,383 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 10.2% (as at 15 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Alan Bailey do best at?: Brighton by strike rate: 17 wins from 77 runners (22.1%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for Alan Bailey?: Natasha Eaton, with 223 runners since 2008 — 9% of the total. That pairing has won 18 (8.1%).
What is Alan Bailey's Fair A/E?: 1.02, from 2,370 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.