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Jockey profile

Nelson De Souza

87 rides in the lifetime window · 49 individual horses
As at 6 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily
Last ride Jun 2015 100% of rides on the flat
Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)
No rides in the last 5 seasons — showing the lifetime record, from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it.
5–87
Wins / Runs
5.7%
Strike rate
n=87
15 (17%)
Placed
0.70
Fair A/E
n=84 · 0.69 incl. margin
−35.50
£1 level stake
n=87 at SP · −40.8%
£44,292
Prize money (window)
Strike by season
0%
KTB at a glance Paul Cole: 6.8% from 59 First rides: 7%

Riding patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 5.7% baseline
First ride on the horse · first captured pairing
7%+1.3
n=43 · A/E 0.78 · £1 −16.50
Last-time-out winners · previous run was a win
25%+19.3
n=4 · A/E 0.00 · £1 +8.00
Fresh horses · 61+ days off
8.3%+2.6
n=12 · A/E 0.89 · £1 −4.00
When favourite
0%
n=2 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −2.00
Big fields · 14+ runners
0%−5.7
n=22 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −22.00
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
0%−5.7
n=6 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −6.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 5.7% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline
Off a 15-30-day break 2.9% vs 5.7% · n=34
With Paul Cole 6.8% vs 5.7% · n=59 · A/E 0.69
In Flat races 5.7% vs 5.7% · n=87 · A/E 0.70
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Going

GoingRWSR£1
Good to Firm 29 2 6.9% −4.00
Standard (AW) 29 2 6.9% −14.50
Good to Soft 13 1 7.7% −1.00
Good 9 0 0% −9.00
Firm 5 0 0% −5.00
Soft 2 0 0% −2.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1
Lingfield (AW) 10 0 0% −10.00
Windsor 10 0 0% −10.00
Chelmsford (AW) 9 2 22.2% +5.50
Kempton (AW) 8 0 0% −8.00
Folkestone 5 0 0% −5.00
Nottingham 4 0 0% −4.00
Newbury 4 0 0% −4.00
Leicester 4 1 25% +11.00
Brighton 4 0 0% −4.00
Salisbury 3 0 0% −3.00
Goodwood 3 0 0% −3.00
York 3 0 0% −3.00
Newmarket 3 1 33.3% +7.00
Newmarket 2 1 50% +10.00
Ayr 2 0 0% −2.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1
Class 5 32 2 6.3% −17.50
Class 4 18 2 11.1% +4.00
Class 6 17 1 5.9% −2.00
Class 2 11 0 0% −11.00
Class 1 6 0 0% −6.00
Class 3 3 0 0% −3.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite 2 0 0% 0.00 −2.00
2nd–3rd fav 16 3 18.8% 1.33 +12.50
4th–6th fav 23 1 4.3% 0.54 −15.00
7th+ in betting 46 1 2.2% 0.61 −31.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses ridden

same window as header · most-raced first
HorseRWPlLast ran
Eisteddfod (GB) 6 0 1 13 Sep 08
Nikolaievich (IRE) 6 1 1 29 Jun 08
Maltese Falcon (GB) 5 0 1 6 Dec 08
Desert Clover (USA) 5 0 0 19 Aug 08
Port de La Ponche (GB) 3 0 0 17 Dec 08
Darwin's Dragon (GB) 3 0 1 8 Dec 08
Cotton Reel (GB) 3 0 0 7 Aug 08
Come On Jonny (IRE) 3 0 1 11 Jul 08
Stan's Cool Cat (IRE) 3 0 2 16 Jun 08
Sicilian Warrior (USA) 2 0 0 22 Dec 08
Don Pietro (GB) 2 1 1 6 Dec 08
Plum Asset (USA) 2 0 0 3 Oct 08
All 49 horses ridden in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

By month

strike by month, lifetime
JFMAMJJASOND
·00020080002510
A flat rider: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Riding for

same window · biggest samples first
Main yardPaul Cole
68% of all rides
6.8% SR · A/E 0.69
TrainerRWSR£1
Paul Cole 59 4 6.8% −15.50
Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2005→
65
Archived wins
2
Pattern / graded wins
£694k
Prize money
2005
Best season · 34 wins
In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Toldo (IRE) — John Smith's Northumberland Plate Heritage Handicap Newcastle · Jul 2006 · Class 2
£123,320
Come On Jonny (IRE) — Totesport November Heritage Handicap Doncaster · Nov 2005 · Class 2
£34,432
Bentong (IRE) — Weatherbys Summer Sprint Heritage Handicap Redcar · Jul 2006 · Class 2
£32,385
Notable horses
Maltese Falcon (GB) Look of Eagles (GB) Eisteddfod (GB) Fantaisiste (GB) Vamp (GB) Our Monogram (GB)

Sires of the horses ridden

progeny record · win % by ground and trip
Cadeaux Genereux (GB) 0% · 0–6
Progeny have won 10.1% of 2,919 runs since 2008 (203 horses).
Xaar (GB) 16.7% · 1–6
Progeny have won 6.1% of 2,429 runs since 2008 (218 horses). Strongest on Heavy going: 10.7% from 122.
Mark of Esteem (IRE) 0% · 0–5
Progeny have won 8.5% of 2,657 runs since 2008 (199 horses). Strongest on Heavy going: 11.7% from 128.
Mutakddim (USA) 0% · 0–5
Progeny have won 10% of 90 runs since 2008 (8 horses).
Bertolini (USA) 50% · 2–4
Progeny have won 8% of 7,851 runs since 2008 (518 horses).
Cape Cross (IRE) 0% · 0–4
Progeny have won 13.3% of 12,754 runs since 2008 (988 horses). Weakest on Heavy going: 8.4% from 477. Weakest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 7.8% from 230.
Top line: the rider's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 6 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 626 · newest first

The latest 50 of 626 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 6 January 2005 to 17 June 2015.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP
17 Jun 15 Ascot Coprah (GB)T: Cathrine Erichsen Royal Hunt Cup (Heritage Handicap) (Str)Class 2 · 8f · Good To Firm · 30 ran 27th 100/1
22 Dec 08 Kempton (AW) Sicilian Warrior (USA)T: Paul Cole Bet King George Vi Chase - Betdaq Claiming StakesClass 6 · 7f · Standard · 10 ran 7th 25/1
17 Dec 08 Lingfield (AW) Port de La Ponche (GB)T: Paul Cole E.B.F. Maiden Fillies' StakesClass 5 · 7f · Standard · 13 ran 7th 20/1
08 Dec 08 Lingfield (AW) Darwin's Dragon (GB)T: Paul Cole Three Bridges Median Auction Maiden StakesClass 6 · 8f · Standard · 12 ran 3rd 11/1
06 Dec 08 Chelmsford (AW) Don Pietro (GB)T: P A Blockley Premiership Football Bets @ freebets.co.uk HandicapClass 5 · 10f · Standard · 8 ran 8th 6/1
06 Dec 08 Chelmsford (AW) Port De La Ponche (GB)T: Paul Cole Free Bets Online @ freebets.co.uk Maiden Fillies' Stakes (Div I)Class 5 · 8f · Standard · 9 ran 9th 7/2
06 Dec 08 Chelmsford (AW) Maltese Falcon (GB)T: Paul Cole Free Betting Exchange Bets @ freebets.co.uk HandicapClass 2 · 6f · Standard · 8 ran 8th 12/1
06 Dec 08 Chelmsford (AW) Desert Strike (GB)T: Paul Cole Free Soccer Bets @ freebets.co.uk Maiden Auction StakesClass 5 · 5f · Standard · 9 ran 1st 11/2
04 Dec 08 Chelmsford (AW) Sicilian Warrior (USA)T: Paul Cole Colne Point Selling StakesClass 6 · 8f · Standard · 14 ran 7th 16/1
02 Dec 08 Lingfield (AW) Vial De Kerdec (FR)T: Mark Bradstock Play Casino At ladbrokes.com HandicapClass 4 · 10f · Standard · 12 ran 11th 66/1
02 Dec 08 Lingfield (AW) Indian Diva (IRE)T: P A Blockley Play Bingo At ladbrokes.com HandicapClass 4 · 8f · Standard · 8 ran 6th 25/1
27 Nov 08 Chelmsford (AW) Don Pietro (GB)T: P A Blockley Free Bets @ freebets.co.uk HandicapClass 5 · 10f · Standard · 10 ran 1st 7/1
22 Nov 08 Lingfield (AW) Maltese Falcon (GB)T: Paul Cole Better Prices, Bigger Wins At ladbrokes.com Golden Rose Stakes (Listed)Class 1 · 6f · Standard · 9 ran 2nd 14/1
05 Nov 08 Kempton (AW) Maltese Falcon (GB)T: Paul Cole digibet.com HandicapClass 2 · 6f · Standard · 10 ran 10th 14/1
05 Nov 08 Kempton (AW) Royal Manor (GB)T: Nicky Vaughan Champagne Lanson HandicapClass 6 · 10f · Standard · 14 ran 6th 6/1
30 Oct 08 Chelmsford (AW) Salamon (GB)T: Paul Cole Pegasus Maiden Fillies' StakesClass 4 · 8f · Standard · 9 ran 7th 20/1
20 Oct 08 Windsor Double Bill (USA)T: Paul Cole Ladbrokes Odds On Victoria Newbury Shop Claiming StakesClass 6 · 6f · Good To Firm · 13 ran 12th 33/1
15 Oct 08 Lingfield (AW) Darwin's Dragon (GB)T: Paul Cole Dawson News E.b.f. Maiden StakesClass 5 · 7f · Standard · 13 ran 9th 25/1
03 Oct 08 Lingfield (AW) Plum Asset (USA)T: Ralph Beckett Hartfield HandicapClass 6 · 10f · Standard · 12 ran 11th 28/1
02 Oct 08 Goodwood Bauhaus Bourbon (USA)T: Paul Cole MySpine.org HandicapClass 5 · 8f · Good To Firm · 14 ran 9th 16/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Nelson De Souza's strike rate?
Nelson De Souza has won 5 of 87 rides since 2008, a strike rate of 5.7% (as at 6 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which yard does Nelson De Souza ride most for?
Paul Cole, with 59 rides since 2008 — 68% of the total. That pairing has won 4 (6.8%).
What is Nelson De Souza's Fair A/E?
0.70, from 84 rides with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%". Three sample sizes are reported and never blended: runs (n), the ROI basis (n at SP), and the fair-A/E basis (n with a computed fair probability).

Strike rate is wins over all runs (n). ROI is £1 level stakes at SP over runs with a parseable price (n at SP). Fair A/E is wins over margin-stripped market expectation, over runs with a computed fair probability (n fair). The three Ns can legitimately differ and are always shown. Figures as at 6 November 2026, computed from our own results archive (2005 onwards; aggregates from 2008).