What is Paul Cole's strike rate?

Paul Cole has won 377 of 3,278 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 11.5% (as at 15 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does Paul Cole do best at?

Brighton by strike rate: 19 wins from 92 runners (20.7%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Who rides most for Paul Cole?

Luke Morris, with 340 runners since 2008 — 10% of the total. That pairing has won 37 (10.9%).

What is Paul Cole's Fair A/E?

0.99, from 3,245 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Trainer profile

Paul Cole

3,278 runners in the lifetime window · 395 individual horses

As at 15 Oct 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Last runner Oct 2020 100% of runners on the flat

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)

No runners in the last 5 seasons — showing the lifetime record, from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it.

377–3,278

Wins / Runs

11.5%

Strike rate

n=3,278

1,013 (31%)

Placed

0.99

Fair A/E

n=3,245 · 0.85 incl. margin

−738.02

£1 level stake

n=3,276 at SP · −22.5%

£4.64m

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

40%

KTB Yard Profile

Sent out around 250 runners a season, almost all on the flat, winning with 12% of them — level with the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 0.99). New recruits from other yards win at 16% first time out (32 runs).

Deterministic profile computed from 3,278 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 15 Oct 2026

KTB at a glance Fired Feb–Mar 31.9% when favourite Luke Morris: 10.9% from 340 New recruits: 15.6% Sent off the favourite in 11% of races

The read

The record is strongest at Chantilly (FR) (35.5%, n=31), Deauville (FR) (25%, n=68) and Brighton (20.7%, n=92) — all clear of the yard's 11.5% baseline. It is weakest at Haydock (0% over 33 runners) — the widest gap in the record. New recruits from other stables on their first run win at 15.6% (n=32, Fair A/E 1.94), but in Group and Graded company the record reads poorly at 6.6% (n=271, Fair A/E 0.69). Luke Morris rode 10% of the entries and matches the yard's average almost exactly (10.9%, A/E 0.85). 29 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the yard has landed: the Parknasilla Hotel Goffs Million at Curragh (Sep 2007, £985,000). The stable star of the record was Precision Break (USA) — 9 wins from 19 runs for the yard. Seasonally, the yard fired Feb–Mar.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 11.5% baseline

Fresh · 61+ days off

9.6%−1.9

n=523 · A/E 0.92 · £1 −180.63

New recruits · first run for the yard

15.6%+4.1

n=32 · A/E 1.94 · £1 +14.50

Debutants · first career start

7.2%−4.3

n=321 · A/E 0.90 · £1 −77.47

First-time headgear · true-first definition

10.5%−1.0

n=209 · A/E 1.03 · £1 −70.00

Headgear returns · back on after a bare run

9.3%−2.2

n=161 · A/E 0.90 · £1 −51.60

When favourite

31.9%

n=351 · A/E 1.01 · £1 −39.59

Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle

8.4%−3.1

n=287 · A/E 0.98 · £1 −22.75

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

6.6%−4.9

n=271 · A/E 0.69 · £1 −158.27

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 11.5% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

With Christophe Soumillon 37.8% vs 11.5% · n=45

At Chantilly (FR) 35.5% vs 11.5% · n=31

At Deauville (FR) 25% vs 11.5% · n=68

With David Probert 23.5% vs 11.5% · n=68

At Brighton 20.7% vs 11.5% · n=92

At Haydock 0% vs 11.5% · n=33

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1

Flat 3,275 377 11.5% −735.02

Hurdle 3 0 0% −3.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Standard (AW) 1,131 154 13.6% −208.22

Good to Firm 920 102 11.1% −241.90

Good 615 55 8.9% −154.54

Good to Soft 284 32 11.3% −64.74

Soft 225 21 9.3% −62.70

Firm 59 8 13.6% −10.92

Heavy 43 5 11.6% +5.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Kempton (AW) 519 62 11.9% −106.80

Lingfield (AW) 250 28 11.2% −113.30

Windsor 226 17 7.5% −102.50

Newbury 211 14 6.6% −82.25

Goodwood 181 17 9.4% −67.25

Wolverhampton (AW) 173 26 15% −6.07

Newmarket 162 11 6.8% −81.95

Newmarket 109 9 8.3% +32.75

Leicester 108 17 15.7% +30.78

Bath 98 10 10.2% −44.94

Ascot 96 5 5.2% −20.00

Salisbury 95 6 6.3% −47.50

Brighton 92 19 20.7% +2.83

Nottingham 88 7 8% −51.17

Chelmsford (AW) 80 10 12.5% −19.53

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 5 1,055 135 12.8% −186.94

Class 4 856 92 10.7% −267.92

Class 6 421 50 11.9% −101.82

Class 2 304 24 7.9% +5.50

Class 3 276 27 9.8% −90.37

Class 1 271 18 6.6% −158.27

Class 7 2 1 50% +9.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 415 128 30.8% 1.03 −44.36

2nd–3rd fav 814 138 17% 1.04 −93.96

4th–6th fav 1,104 84 7.6% 0.95 −212.60

7th+ in betting 943 27 2.9% 0.77 −387.10

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Rotherwick (IRE)then Paul & Oliver Cole 61 6 23 1 Feb 20

Silverheels (IRE) 58 8 21 17 Jun 16

Stormbound (IRE) 48 6 17 10 Sep 18

Circumvent (GB) 41 6 16 3 Jul 14

Moynahan (USA)then Thomas Cuthbert 40 1 10 16 Apr 12

Mons Calpe (IRE)then S Cerulis 36 5 10 21 Sep 12

Upstaging (GB)then Noel Wilson 34 6 15 27 Oct 18

Medieval (IRE)then Paul & Oliver Cole 33 3 10 7 Oct 19

Baron Bolt (GB) 33 7 15 28 Sep 19

Arctic Sea (GB)then Paul & Oliver Cole 32 5 13 15 Sep 19

Lyfka (GB)from J W Hills · then John James Feane 28 4 8 23 May 17

Complicit (IRE)then J F Levins 28 6 10 2 Jun 16

The 60 most-raced of 395 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 60 horses listed, 3 arrived from another yard in our archive; 57 had their first archived run for this yard.

31 have since run for another yard, most often for Paul & Oliver Cole (4); 29 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

When the yard fires

strike by month, lifetime

JFMAMJJASOND

12211412109141211101513

A flat yard: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first

Go-to riderLuke Morris

10% of all rides
10.9% SR · A/E 0.85

RiderRWSR£1

Luke Morris 340 37 10.9% −97.94

Jamie Spencer 171 23 13.5% −56.01

Jim Crowley 164 25 15.2% −5.12

Raul Da Silva 154 14 9.1% −6.50

Chris Catlin 132 13 9.8% −69.98

Neil Callan 104 10 9.6% −64.46

Martin Dwyer 99 9 9.1% −41.40

Duilio Da Silva 87 3 3.4% −55.50

Tom Queally 85 7 8.2% +7.25

Jimmy Fortune 81 6 7.4% −42.00

Silvestre De Sousa 79 13 16.5% −29.13

T Quinn 74 10 13.5% −23.21

Muted rows are under 30 rides.

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2005→

494

Archived wins

Pattern / graded wins

£7.07m

Prize money

2008

Best season · 60 wins

In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.

Luck Money (IRE) — Parknasilla Hotel Goffs (c & G) Million Curragh · Sep 2007

£985,000

Baron Bolt (GB) — William Hill Ayr Gold Cup (Heritage Handicap) Ayr · Sep 2018 · Class 2

£80,890

Duke Of Hazzard (FR) — Ladbrokes Celebration Mile Stakes (Group 2) Goodwood · Aug 2019 · Group 2

£75,850

Notable horses

Precision Break (USA) Silverheels (IRE) Eisteddfod (GB) Baron Bolt (GB) Rotherwick (IRE) Stormbound (IRE)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Rock Of Gibraltar (IRE) 8.5% · 12–142

Progeny have won 9.8% of 11,562 runs since 2008 (871 horses).

Verglas (IRE) 16.1% · 19–118

Progeny have won 10.2% of 6,977 runs since 2008 (499 horses).

Kheleyf (USA) 16.7% · 18–108

Progeny have won 8.7% of 10,540 runs since 2008 (676 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 12.2% from 131. Weakest over 1m2f – 1m4f (all codes): 5.6% from 879.

Galileo (IRE) 11.3% · 12–106

Progeny have won 14.5% of 18,188 runs since 2008 (1,776 horses). Strongest over 6f – 7f (all codes): 18.2% from 1,383. Weakest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 9.3% from 888.

Oasis Dream (GB) 15.1% · 13–86

Progeny have won 11.8% of 17,987 runs since 2008 (1,508 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 17.3% from 150. Weakest on Heavy going: 8.5% from 481. Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 7.1% from 790.

Starspangledbanner (AUS) 11.3% · 9–80

Progeny have won 11.1% of 7,101 runs since 2008 (658 horses). Strongest at trips under 6f (all codes): 14.6% from 1,182.

Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 15 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 4,327 · newest first

The latest 50 of 4,327 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 6 January 2005 to 24 October 2020.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

24 Oct 20 Newbury Celtic Classic (IRE)J: Miss Becky Smith Worthington's Amateur Jockeys' HandicapClass 5 · 12f · Heavy · 14 ran 11th 15/2

09 Mar 20 Wolverhampton (AW) The First King (IRE)J: David Probert Ladbrokes 'Play '1-2-Free' On Football Novice StakesClass 5 · 9.5f · Standard · 7 ran 1st 7/1

28 Feb 20 Lingfield (AW) Dark Phoenix (IRE)J: Luke Morris Ladbrokes 'Play 1-2-Free' On Football HandicapClass 5 · 7f · Standard · 6 ran 1st 7/2C

28 Feb 20 Lingfield (AW) River Dawn (GB)J: David Probert Bombardier Golden Beer HandicapClass 5 · 8f · Standard · 10 ran 1st 5/1

26 Feb 20 Kempton (AW) Atlantic Crossing (IRE)J: Josephine Gordon 32Red Casino Maiden StakesClass 5 · 12f · Standard To Slow · 14 ran 8th 5/1

18 Feb 20 Southwell (AW) Dark Phoenix (IRE)J: P J McDonald Ladbrokes Home Of The Odds Boost HandicapClass 6 · 7f · Standard · 11 ran 2nd 10/1

05 Feb 20 Wolverhampton (AW) Dark Phoenix (IRE)J: Ben Curtis Ladbrokes 'Play 1-2-Free' On Football HandicapClass 6 · 8.5f · Standard · 9 ran 1st 7/1

01 Feb 20 Kempton (AW) Rotherwick (IRE)J: David Probert 100% Profit Boost At 32RedSport.com HandicapClass 5 · 12f · Standard To Slow · 10 ran 4th 20/1

24 Jan 20 Lingfield (AW) Rotherwick (IRE)J: Thomas Greatrex Betway HandicapClass 5 · 10f · Standard · 11 ran 10th 10/1

15 Jan 20 Wolverhampton (AW) Dark Phoenix (IRE)J: Ben Curtis Ladbrokes Where The Nation Plays HandicapClass 6 · 9.5f · Standard · 12 ran 12th 5/1

11 Jan 20 Lingfield (AW) Sassoon (GB)J: Ben Curtis Betway Selling StakesClass 6 · 12f · Standard · 8 ran 6th 9/4

06 Jan 20 Wolverhampton (AW) Rotherwick (IRE)J: David Probert betyourway At Betway HandicapClass 5 · 9.5f · Standard · 12 ran 3rd 5/1

04 Jan 20 Kempton (AW) Dark Phoenix (IRE)J: Ben Curtis 32Red.com HandicapClass 6 · 8f · Standard To Slow · 14 ran 1st 7/1

02 Jan 20 Chelmsford City (AW) Midnight Traveller (IRE)J: Charles Bishop Book Tickets At chelmsfordcityracecourse.com Novice Stakes (Plus 10) (Div 1)Class 4 · 8f · Standard · 13 ran 3rd 7/2

02 Jan 20 Lingfield (AW) River Dawn (GB)J: Ben Curtis Bombardier Golden Beer Handicap (Div 2)Class 5 · 8f · Standard · 8 ran 1st 13/2

28 Dec 19 Lingfield (AW) Dark Phoenix (IRE)J: Thore Hammer Hansen Ladbrokes 'Play 1-2-Free' On Football NurseryClass 6 · 7f · Standard · 11 ran 5th 8/1

12 Dec 19 Wolverhampton (AW) Millionaire Waltz (GB)J: Thomas Greatrex Ladbrokes Football Acca Boosty Maiden Auction Stakes (Plus 10)Class 4 · 7f · Standard · 9 ran 1st 4/1

11 Dec 19 Kempton (AW) Ivatheengine (IRE)J: Jim Crowley Racingtv.com Novice StakesClass 5 · 6f · Standard To Slow · 12 ran 1st 4/1

04 Dec 19 Lingfield (AW) River Dawn (GB)J: Hector Crouch Bombardier Golden Beer HandicapClass 5 · 7f · Standard · 13 ran 6th 4/1

30 Nov 19 Lingfield (AW) Sassoon (GB)J: David Probert Bombardier Golden Beer HandicapClass 5 · 8f · Standard · 12 ran 11th 9/2J

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Paul Cole's strike rate?: Paul Cole has won 377 of 3,278 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 11.5% (as at 15 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Paul Cole do best at?: Brighton by strike rate: 19 wins from 92 runners (20.7%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for Paul Cole?: Luke Morris, with 340 runners since 2008 — 10% of the total. That pairing has won 37 (10.9%).
What is Paul Cole's Fair A/E?: 0.99, from 3,245 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.