What is Carl Llewellyn's strike rate?

Carl Llewellyn has won 33 of 359 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 9.2% (as at 15 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Who rides most for Carl Llewellyn?

Robert L Butler, with 108 runners since 2008 — 30% of the total. That pairing has won 6 (5.6%).

What is Carl Llewellyn's Fair A/E?

0.87, from 359 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Trainer profile

Carl Llewellyn

359 runners in the lifetime window · 92 individual horses

As at 15 Oct 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Last runner Jun 2009 94% of runners over jumps

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)

No runners in the last 5 seasons — showing the lifetime record, from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it.

33–359

Wins / Runs

9.2%

Strike rate

n=359

92 (26%)

Placed

0.87

Fair A/E

n=359 · 0.74 incl. margin

−95.44

£1 level stake

n=359 at SP · −26.6%

£454k

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

8.3%

KTB Yard Profile

Sent out around 180 runners a season, almost all over hurdles and fences, winning with 9% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 0.87).

Deterministic profile computed from 359 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 15 Oct 2026

KTB at a glance 30.3% when favourite Robert L Butler: 5.6% from 108 Sent off the favourite in 9% of races

The read

The market has consistently overbet horses returning fresh after 61+ days: 7.9% strike, Fair A/E 0.79 and −42.59 to a £1 stake over 101 runners — those runners underperformed what the price implied. Robert L Butler rode 30% of the entries and sits below the yard's average (5.6% vs 9.2%, A/E 0.71). The yard also read well in Class 5 (15.2%, n=66). The record read poorly on Soft going — 4.2% over 71 runners, 5pts below the baseline. The market has consistently overbet the yard in Class 3: Fair A/E 0.55 across 62 runners (4.8% strike, −19.00 to a £1 stake) — runners there underperformed what the price implied. 6 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the yard has landed: the Bet365 Gold Cup Handicap Chase at Sandown (Apr 2009, £94,067).

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 9.2% baseline

Fresh · 61+ days off

7.9%−1.3

n=101 · A/E 0.79 · £1 −42.59

New recruits · first run for the yard

0%−9.2

n=14 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −14.00

Debutants · first career start

11.5%+2.3

n=26 · A/E 1.04 · £1 −13.25

First-time headgear · true-first definition

4%−5.2

n=25 · A/E 0.39 · £1 −22.12

Headgear returns · back on after a bare run

0%−9.2

n=5 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −5.00

When favourite

30.3%

n=33 · A/E 1.00 · £1 −6.32

Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle

7.9%−1.3

n=127 · A/E 0.88 · £1 −25.26

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

7.7%−1.5

n=13 · A/E 0.97 · £1 −7.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 9.2% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

In Class 5 15.2% vs 9.2% · n=66

With Tom O'Brien 3.8% vs 9.2% · n=52

On Soft going 4.2% vs 9.2% · n=71

On last-time-out winners 14.7% vs 9.2% · n=34

In Class 3 4.8% vs 9.2% · n=62

With Robert L Butler 5.6% vs 9.2% · n=108

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1

Hurdle 177 14 7.9% −32.91

Chase 100 9 9% −20.27

NH Flat 59 7 11.9% −32.14

Flat 23 3 13% −10.12

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Good 113 11 9.7% −53.28

Good to Soft 94 10 10.6% −7.25

Soft 71 3 4.2% −42.12

Heavy 36 5 13.9% +34.38

Good to Firm 31 3 9.7% −15.17

Standard (AW) 12 1 8.3% −10.00

Firm 2 0 0% −2.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Chepstow 28 3 10.7% +35.50

Towcester 26 4 15.4% −5.00

Kempton 21 1 4.8% −18.12

Cheltenham 21 0 0% −21.00

Fontwell 18 1 5.6% −10.00

Folkestone 18 3 16.7% +6.88

Sandown 17 1 5.9% −9.50

Newbury 15 1 6.7% −11.00

Huntingdon 13 2 15.4% +0.00

Uttoxeter 13 1 7.7% −7.50

Plumpton 13 0 0% −13.00

Warwick 12 3 25% +0.73

Bangor-on-Dee 10 0 0% −10.00

Lingfield 10 0 0% −10.00

Aintree 9 1 11.1% +8.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 4 139 12 8.6% −51.01

Class 5 66 10 15.2% +32.33

Class 3 62 3 4.8% −19.00

Class 6 34 4 11.8% −24.76

Class 1 31 2 6.5% −17.50

Class 2 23 2 8.7% −11.50

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 41 14 34.1% 1.20 +1.56

2nd–3rd fav 88 9 10.2% 0.63 −36.00

4th–6th fav 92 8 8.7% 1.11 +9.00

7th+ in betting 138 2 1.4% 0.41 −70.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Jumping record

completion over obstacles · same window as header

76.9% completed · 277 obstacle runners (chases & hurdles)

CodeRCompFURPUBDOth

Chase 100 69% 4 3 23 1 0

Hurdle 177 81.4% 5 1 27 0 0

Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Steig (IRE)from David Wachman · then George Baker 14 3 7 19 Aug 08

Urban Tiger (GER)from Alan King · then Tim Vaughan 13 1 6 12 Nov 08

Tizzy Blue (IRE) 9 2 2 19 Apr 09

Glenda Hoddle (GB) 9 0 0 27 Mar 09

Tara Queen (GB) 9 0 0 28 Nov 08

Scalloway (IRE)from D J Wintle · then Nigel Twiston-Davies 8 1 1 28 Jun 09

Tayman (IRE)from Charlie Mann · then Nigel Twiston-Davies 8 1 2 28 Jun 09

Master Charm (FR)then Tim Vaughan 8 0 1 17 May 09

Roll Along (IRE)from Mark Pitman · then Nigel Twiston-Davies 8 1 3 29 Apr 09

Hennessy (IRE)from Mark Pitman · then Ferdy Murphy 8 2 3 25 Apr 09

Doctor Robert (GB)from Tom Dascombe · then Tim Vaughan 8 0 4 21 Apr 09

Joyryder (GB)from Mark Pitman 8 1 2 5 Apr 09

The 60 most-raced of 92 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 60 horses listed, 24 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from Mark Pitman (11); 36 had their first archived run for this yard.

42 have since run for another yard, most often for Nigel Twiston-Davies (14) and Warren Greatrex (11); 18 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

When the yard fires

strike by month, lifetime

JFMAMJJASOND

1387159892911037

A jumps yard: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first

Go-to riderRobert L Butler

30% of all rides
5.6% SR · A/E 0.71

RiderRWSR£1

Robert L Butler 108 6 5.6% −15.62

Noel Fehily 54 5 9.3% −18.44

Tom O'Brien 52 2 3.8% −36.12

Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2006→

Archived wins

Pattern / graded wins

£1.06m

Prize money

2008

Best season · 26 wins

This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.

Hennessy (IRE) — Bet365 Gold Cup Handicap Chase (Grade 3) Sandown · Apr 2009 · Class 1

£94,067

Run For Paddy (GB) — Scottish National Handicap Chase (Grd2) Ayr · Apr 2006 · Grade 3

£91,232

Roll Along (IRE) — United House Gold Cup Handicap Chase Ascot · Nov 2008 · Class 2

£61,960

Notable horses

Hennessy (IRE) Roll Along (IRE) Steig (IRE) Wind Instrument (IRE) Den of Iniquity (GB) Frascati Park (IRE)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Marju (IRE) 9.5% · 2–21

Progeny have won 10.2% of 3,553 runs since 2008 (286 horses).

Kayf Tara (GB) 0% · 0–18

Progeny have won 12.6% of 13,736 runs since 2008 (1,148 horses). Strongest on Heavy going: 16.2% from 1,708.

Oscar (IRE) 18.8% · 3–16

Progeny have won 10.9% of 16,542 runs since 2008 (1,456 horses). Strongest on Standard (AW) going: 18.1% from 105.

Presenting (GB) 13.3% · 2–15

Progeny have won 11% of 20,049 runs since 2008 (1,686 horses). Strongest on Standard (AW) going: 24.3% from 136.

Xaar (GB) 21.4% · 3–14

Progeny have won 6.1% of 2,429 runs since 2008 (218 horses). Strongest on Heavy going: 10.7% from 122.

Accordion (IRE) 30.8% · 4–13

Progeny have won 10.8% of 3,309 runs since 2008 (327 horses).

Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 15 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 674 · newest first

The latest 50 of 674 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 9 April 2006 to 28 June 2009.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

28 Jun 09 Uttoxeter Scalloway (IRE)J: Jason Maguire Britannia Building Society English Summer National Handicap Chase (Listed)Class 1 · 28f · Good · 17 ran PU 25/1

28 Jun 09 Uttoxeter Tayman (IRE)J: Noel Fehily Ladies At The Races Handicap HurdleClass 4 · 20f · Good · 17 ran 14th 14/1

06 Jun 09 Worcester Presentandcorrect (IRE)J: Noel Fehily Betfair Valerie Lewis Memorial Handicap ChaseClass 3 · 20.5f · Good To Soft · 4 ran F 8/1

20 May 09 Worcester Scalloway (IRE)J: Richard Johnson Ladbrokes Handicap ChaseClass 3 · 23f · Good To Firm · 9 ran 4th 20/1

17 May 09 Fakenham Master Charm (FR)J: Tom Scudamore Holkham Country Fair 18th & 19th July Beginners' ChaseClass 4 · 16.5f · Good · 6 ran 4th 3/1

15 May 09 Aintree Super Martina (IRE)J: A P McCoy Kenyon Fraser Mares' Handicap HurdleClass 4 · 20f · Good To Soft · 14 ran 10th 14/1

07 May 09 Newton Abbot Master Charm (FR)J: Paddy Brennan 'for Every Occasion' Handicap ChaseClass 4 · 21f · Good To Firm · 9 ran 4th 8/1

01 May 09 Fontwell Ammunition (IRE)J: Timmy Murphy Twosy Howe Go On My Love Handicap ChaseClass 4 · 21f · Good · 11 ran 8th 9/2

29 Apr 09 Punchestown Roll Along (IRE)J: Graham Lee Punchestown Guinness Gold Cup (Grade 1)25f · Soft To Heavy · 12 ran 4th 10/1

27 Apr 09 Towcester Presentandcorrect (IRE)J: Tom O'Brien Free Tips at gg.com Beginners' ChaseClass 4 · 20f · Good · 6 ran 3rd 9/4

25 Apr 09 Sandown Hennessy (IRE)J: A P McCoy Bet365 Gold Cup Handicap Chase (Grade 3)Class 1 · 29f · Good · 14 ran 1st 13/2

23 Apr 09 Fontwell Caragh Bridge (IRE)J: Noel Fehily 3663 Novices' HurdleClass 4 · 21.5f · Good · 11 ran 1st 7/1

21 Apr 09 Towcester Ammunition (IRE)J: Noel Fehily Woburn Send Off For Reggie Corbett Handicap ChaseClass 4 · 16.5f · Good · 9 ran 2nd 11/1

21 Apr 09 Towcester Genies Lamp (IRE)J: Noel Fehily Sponsor A Race At racesponsors.co.uk Mares' Novices' HurdleClass 4 · 16f · Good · 9 ran 7th 33/1

21 Apr 09 Towcester Doctor Robert (GB)J: Noel Fehily Friends Of Kidsaid Selling Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 16f · Good · 15 ran 2nd 9/1

19 Apr 09 Stratford Master Charm (FR)J: Jason Maguire Bet Totepool At Totesport Novices' Handicap HurdleClass 3 · 16.5f · Good · 14 ran 8th 12/1

19 Apr 09 Wincanton Tizzy Blue (IRE)J: Tom O'Brien Bathwick Tyres Dorchester Handicap HurdleClass 4 · 21.5f · Good To Firm · 15 ran 10th 12/1

16 Apr 09 Cheltenham The Old Pretender (IRE)J: A P McCoy Cheltenham Business Club Handicap HurdleClass 2 · 24f · Good · 24 ran 20th 12/1

13 Apr 09 Plumpton Smooth Classic (IRE)J: Noel Fehily freebets.co.uk Free Casino And Poker Intermediate Open NH Flat RaceClass 6 · 17.5f · Good · 7 ran 3rd 7/1

12 Apr 09 Towcester R'Cam (IRE)J: Paddy Brennan Happy 70th Birthday Winspear Novices' Handicap ChaseClass 4 · 21.5f · Good · 7 ran PU 5/2F

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Carl Llewellyn's strike rate?: Carl Llewellyn has won 33 of 359 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 9.2% (as at 15 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Who rides most for Carl Llewellyn?: Robert L Butler, with 108 runners since 2008 — 30% of the total. That pairing has won 6 (5.6%).
What is Carl Llewellyn's Fair A/E?: 0.87, from 359 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.