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Jockey profile

Rob McCarth

553 rides in the lifetime window · 274 individual horses
As at 29 Oct 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily
Last ride Feb 2016 99% of rides over jumps
Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)
No rides in the last 5 seasons — showing the lifetime record, from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it.
39–553
Wins / Runs
7.1%
Strike rate
n=553
103 (19%)
Placed
0.95
Fair A/E
n=553 · 0.78 incl. margin
−202.46
£1 level stake
n=553 at SP · −36.6%
£265k
Prize money (window)
Strike by season
28.6%
KTB Rider Profile

Rode around 60 times a season, almost all over hurdles and fences, winning on 7% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 0.95).

Deterministic profile computed from 553 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 29 Oct 2026
KTB at a glance 28.6% when favourite Ian Williams: 9.5% from 190 Claiming: 7.4% Rode the favourite in 6% of races
The read

Horses returning fresh after 61+ days have been a poor signal at 3.3% (n=151, Fair A/E 0.55). Ian Williams supplied 34% of the rides and edges the rider's average (9.5% vs 7.1%, A/E 0.88). The rider also read well off a 0-7-day break (22.5%, n=40) and off a 31-60-day break (12.1%, n=99). The record read poorly off a break of 180+ days — 2.8% over 71 rides, 4.3pts below the baseline. The market has consistently overbet the rider off a 15-30-day break: Fair A/E 0.48 across 148 rides (4.1% strike, −73.20 to a £1 stake) — runners there underperformed what the price implied.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Riding patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 7.1% baseline
First ride on the horse · first captured pairing
6.1%−1.0
n=262 · A/E 1.05 · £1 −50.83
Last-time-out winners · previous run was a win
17.2%+10.1
n=29 · A/E 1.06 · £1 −4.58
Fresh horses · 61+ days off
3.3%−3.8
n=151 · A/E 0.55 · £1 −94.50
When favourite
28.6%
n=35 · A/E 0.99 · £1 −5.21
Claiming rides · riding with a claim
7.4%+0.3
n=526 · A/E 1.01 · £1 −175.46
Big fields · 14+ runners
6.8%−0.3
n=237 · A/E 1.45 · £1 −71.45
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
0%−7.1
n=7 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −7.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 7.1% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline
Off a 0-7-day break 22.5% vs 7.1% · n=40
Off a 31-60-day break 12.1% vs 7.1% · n=99
Off a break of 180+ days 2.8% vs 7.1% · n=71
Off a 15-30-day break 4.1% vs 7.1% · n=148
Off a 61-180-day break 3.8% vs 7.1% · n=80
Over 2m1f – 2m4f 9.7% vs 7.1% · n=207
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1
Hurdle 382 24 6.3% −169.46
Chase 105 10 9.5% −22.50
NH Flat 62 5 8.1% −6.50
Flat 4 0 0% −4.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1
Good 197 17 8.6% −47.20
Soft 131 8 6.1% −76.58
Good to Soft 90 6 6.7% −33.50
Good to Firm 62 4 6.5% −20.25
Heavy 55 4 7.3% −6.93
Firm 14 0 0% −14.00
Standard (AW) 4 0 0% −4.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1
Punchestown 25 1 4% +1.00
Sedgefield 23 1 4.3% −18.00
Uttoxeter 22 4 18.2% +10.25
Wetherby 20 2 10% −16.18
Warwick 18 2 11.1% +2.00
Clonmel 16 1 6.3% −12.25
Hexham 16 1 6.3% −7.00
Southwell 15 1 6.7% −7.50
Stratford 15 1 6.7% −8.50
Market Rasen 15 1 6.7% +2.00
Cork 14 2 14.3% +8.50
Limerick 14 0 0% −14.00
Doncaster 14 2 14.3% +2.00
Perth 14 0 0% −14.00
Ludlow 13 2 15.4% −2.50

Class

ClassRWSR£1
Class 4 164 11 6.7% −59.50
Class 5 102 10 9.8% −37.51
Class 3 44 4 9.1% −25.75
Class 6 19 1 5.3% −8.00
Class 2 12 0 0% −12.00
Class 1 7 0 0% −7.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite 40 10 25% 0.90 −10.21
2nd–3rd fav 77 12 15.6% 1.07 −6.25
4th–6th fav 147 12 8.2% 1.13 +0.00
7th+ in betting 289 5 1.7% 0.61 −186.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Jumping record

completion over obstacles · same window as header
85.8% completed · 487 obstacle rides (chases & hurdles)
CodeRCompFURPUBDOth
Chase 105 76.2% 3 4 16 0 2
Hurdle 382 88.5% 10 4 29 0 1
Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.

Horses ridden

same window as header · most-raced first
HorseRWPlLast ran
Watt Broderick (IRE) 14 1 3 6 Jan 16
Pobs Trophy (GB) 12 0 1 22 Apr 12
Drumlang (IRE) 11 3 5 6 Jun 15
Lily Little Legs (IRE) 10 1 2 10 May 15
Fredo (IRE) 10 0 5 8 Mar 15
Ghost Of A Smile (IRE) 9 1 2 14 Nov 15
Sonofagun (FR) 8 2 4 21 Mar 15
Zafranagar (IRE) 8 1 2 1 Mar 15
Backtothekingsnest (IRE) 8 0 0 29 Dec 08
Midtech Valentine (GB) 6 0 1 1 Jan 16
Grand Gigolo (FR) 6 0 1 7 Mar 15
Miss Lucky Penny (GB) 6 0 3 11 Nov 14
Showing the 60 most-raced of the 274 horses ridden in this window — each ran at least 2 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

By month

strike by month, lifetime
JFMAMJJASOND
127115611393383
A jumps rider: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Riding for

same window · biggest samples first
Main yardIan Williams
34% of all rides
9.5% SR · A/E 0.88
TrainerRWSR£1
Ian Williams 190 18 9.5% −78.76
P A Fahy 81 6 7.4% −19.95
Ferdy Murphy 43 4 9.3% −11.00
Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2005→
43
Archived wins
£318k
Prize money
2014
Best season · 7 wins
In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Meadow Vale (IRE) — Masterchefs Hospitality (Pro-Am) Flat Race Punchestown · Apr 2007
£13,020
Sonofagun (FR) — Wye Valley Brewery Handicap Chase Ludlow · Mar 2014 · Class 3
£11,078
No Stopping Sarah (IRE) — Irish Sun (pro-am) Inh Flat Race Punchestown · Apr 2008
£11,056
Notable horses
Drumlang (IRE) Meadow Vale (IRE) Sonofagun (FR) Cotillion (GB) Swinging Hawk (GER) Watt Broderick (IRE)

Sires of the horses ridden

progeny record · win % by ground and trip
King's Theatre (IRE) 7.7% · 2–26
Progeny have won 14.4% of 12,129 runs since 2008 (746 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 4.8% from 125. Weakest over 1m2f – 1m4f (all codes): 7.9% from 203.
Oscar (IRE) 4.8% · 1–21
Progeny have won 10.9% of 16,543 runs since 2008 (1,456 horses). Strongest on Standard (AW) going: 18.1% from 105.
Hawk Wing (USA) 18.8% · 3–16
Progeny have won 8.5% of 4,330 runs since 2008 (330 horses).
Presenting (GB) 6.3% · 1–16
Progeny have won 11% of 20,050 runs since 2008 (1,686 horses). Strongest on Standard (AW) going: 24.3% from 136.
Saddlers' Hall (IRE) 0% · 0–12
Progeny have won 7.7% of 4,861 runs since 2008 (460 horses).
Umistim (GB) 0% · 0–12
Progeny have won 5.7% of 159 runs since 2008 (15 horses).
Top line: the rider's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 29 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 676 · newest first

The latest 50 of 676 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 6 March 2005 to 12 February 2016.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP
12 Feb 16 Wetherby Cotillion (GB)T: Ian Williams Racinguk.com/anywhere Selling HurdleClass 5 · 19.5f · Heavy · 6 ran 1st 4/7F
28 Jan 16 Warwick Red Infantry (IRE)T: Ian Williams Deli Cafe Intermediate Open NH Flat RaceClass 6 · 16f · Soft · 7 ran 4th 16/1
08 Jan 16 Doncaster Paris Snow (GB)T: Ian Williams 1stsecuritysolutions.co.uk Maiden Hurdle (Div 1)Class 5 · 19.5f · Soft · 9 ran 6th 66/1
08 Jan 16 Doncaster Caldey (GB)T: Ian Williams Premier Quality Foods 'National Hunt' Novices' HurdleClass 4 · 16.5f · Soft · 7 ran 6th 100/1
06 Jan 16 Huntingdon Watt Broderick (IRE)T: Ian Williams rewards4racing.com Handicap Hurdle (Qualifier For The Challenger Two Mile Hurdle Series Final)Class 3 · 16f · Soft · 17 ran 15th 100/1
01 Jan 16 Fakenham Midtech Valentine (GB)T: Ian Williams Fakenham Racecourse Annual Members Maiden HurdleClass 5 · 16f · Soft · 13 ran 5th 10/1
01 Jan 16 Fakenham Cotillion (GB)T: Ian Williams Cool Roxy Bar For Private Functions Selling HurdleClass 5 · 20f · Soft · 6 ran 1st 4/6F
28 Dec 15 Leicester Paris Snow (GB)T: Ian Williams Old Year Novices' HurdleClass 4 · 20.5f · Heavy · 14 ran 5th 100/1
26 Dec 15 Huntingdon Hopefordebest (IRE)T: Ian Williams Racing Fx Novices' HurdleClass 4 · 19.5f · Soft · 16 ran 7th 40/1
11 Dec 15 Doncaster Midtech Valentine (GB)T: Ian Williams betdaq.com 25 Free Bet Maiden Hurdle (Div 1)Class 5 · 16.5f · Good To Soft · 17 ran 7th 100/1
10 Dec 15 Warwick Paris Snow (GB)T: Ian Williams Eventmasters Twickenham Hospitality Packages Maiden HurdleClass 4 · 21f · Soft · 14 ran 10th 100/1
05 Dec 15 Wetherby Howaboutnow (IRE)T: Ian Williams Rebecca Richardson 21st Birthday Chase (Novices' Limited Handicap)Class 4 · 24f · Soft · 6 ran PU 11/2
05 Dec 15 Wetherby Howaboutnever (IRE)T: Ian Williams Scoop6soccer The 1 Million Football Bet Handicap HurdleClass 4 · 24f · Soft · 7 ran 2nd 7/2
03 Dec 15 Leicester Paris Snow (GB)T: Ian Williams Knighton Novices' HurdleClass 4 · 15.5f · Heavy · 13 ran 13th 50/1
28 Nov 15 Doncaster Jam Session (IRE)T: Ian Williams Free Betdaq Trading Software On betdaqtraders.com 'Junior' Standard Open NH Flat RaceClass 6 · 13f · Good · 14 ran 1st 10/1
27 Nov 15 Doncaster Leath Acra Mor (IRE)T: Ian Williams Walls Magnum Classic Handicap Hurdle (Qualifier For The Challenger Staying Hurdle Series Final)Class 4 · 24.5f · Good · 15 ran 3rd 100/1
26 Nov 15 Newbury Red Infantry (IRE)T: Ian Williams bet365.com Standard Open NH Flat RaceClass 6 · 16.5f · Soft · 13 ran 5th 100/1
23 Nov 15 Ludlow Midtech Valentine (GB)T: Ian Williams Toteplacepot Racing's Favourite Bet Maiden HurdleClass 4 · 16f · Good To Soft · 14 ran 8th 50/1
16 Nov 15 Leicester Watt Broderick (IRE)T: Ian Williams H.a.c. Pipeline Supplies Handicap HurdleClass 3 · 15.5f · Good To Soft · 13 ran 8th 10/1
15 Nov 15 Fontwell Paris Snow (GB)T: Ian Williams Fruity O'rooney 'heart Of A Lion' Maiden HurdleClass 4 · 19f · Soft · 13 ran 9th 13/2

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Rob McCarth's strike rate?
Rob McCarth has won 39 of 553 rides since 2008, a strike rate of 7.1% (as at 29 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which yard does Rob McCarth ride most for?
Ian Williams, with 190 rides since 2008 — 34% of the total. That pairing has won 18 (9.5%).
What is Rob McCarth's Fair A/E?
0.95, from 553 rides with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%". Three sample sizes are reported and never blended: runs (n), the ROI basis (n at SP), and the fair-A/E basis (n with a computed fair probability).

Strike rate is wins over all runs (n). ROI is £1 level stakes at SP over runs with a parseable price (n at SP). Fair A/E is wins over margin-stripped market expectation, over runs with a computed fair probability (n fair). The three Ns can legitimately differ and are always shown. Figures as at 29 October 2026, computed from our own results archive (2005 onwards; aggregates from 2008).