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Trainer profile

P A Fahy

595 runners in the last 5 seasons · 74 individual horses
As at 2 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily
Last runner 2 days ago
Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)
from 1 Jan 2022
27–595
Wins / Runs
4.5%
Strike rate
n=595
86 (15%)
Placed
1.04
Fair A/E
n=595 · 0.82 incl. margin
−300.30
£1 level stake
n=595 at SP · −50.5%
£609k
Prize money (window)
Strike by season
3.8%
KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 120 runners a season, winning with 5% of them — beating the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 1.04).

Deterministic profile computed from 595 archived runs (last 5 seasons) · updated 2 Nov 2026
KTB at a glance Fires Oct–Nov Harry Sexton: 6.3% from 79
The read

It is weakest at Gowran Park (0% over 46 runners) — the widest gap in the record. Debutants struggle at 0% (n=49, Fair A/E 0.00). The market has consistently overbet runners with a claiming rider up: 2.7% strike, Fair A/E 0.75 and −217.30 to a £1 stake over 328 runners — those runners underperform what the price implies. Harry Sexton rides 13% of the entries and matches the yard's average almost exactly (6.3%, A/E 1.25) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. The yard also reads well on Good to Soft going (7.7%, n=78). 20 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the yard has landed: the Ladbrokes Hurdle at Leopardstown (Feb 2021, £73,750). The stable star of the record: Castlegrace Paddy (IRE) — 7 wins from 32 runs for the yard. Seasonally, the yard fires Oct–Nov.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 4.5% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
2.6%−1.9
n=117 · A/E 0.79 · £1 −81.50
New recruits · first run for the yard
0%−4.5
n=6 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −6.00
Debutants · first career start
0%−4.5
n=49 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −49.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
4%−0.5
n=25 · A/E 1.07 · £1 −19.50
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
0%−4.5
n=16 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −16.00
When favourite
11.1%
n=9 · A/E 0.59 · £1 −6.80
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
2.7%−1.8
n=328 · A/E 0.75 · £1 −217.30
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
4.8%+0.3
n=63 · A/E 0.92 · £1 −43.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 4.5% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. The same beliefs, tested across every yard and every GB and Irish race since 2005: Racing myths.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline
With debutants 0% vs 4.5% · n=49
At Gowran Park 0% vs 4.5% · n=46
With Michael O'Sullivan 9.4% vs 4.5% · n=32
With Danny Mullins 8.5% vs 4.5% · n=59
On Good to Soft going 7.7% vs 4.5% · n=78
At Punchestown 1.4% vs 4.5% · n=71
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1
Hurdle 263 10 3.8% −143.30
Chase 128 7 5.5% −46.00
Flat 117 7 6% −42.00
NH Flat 87 3 3.4% −69.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1
Soft 267 8 3% −185.50
Heavy 131 9 6.9% −57.80
Good 112 4 3.6% −88.00
Good to Soft 78 6 7.7% +38.00
Standard (AW) 5 0 0% −5.00
Good to Firm 2 0 0% −2.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1
Fairyhouse 74 4 5.4% −41.50
Punchestown 71 1 1.4% −63.00
Gowran Park 46 0 0% −46.00
Naas 43 1 2.3% −26.00
Clonmel 39 3 7.7% −14.00
Navan 29 1 3.4% −24.50
Down Royal 25 3 12% +32.00
Galway 24 1 4.2% −18.50
Tramore 23 0 0% −23.00
Ballinrobe 23 2 8.7% +9.00
Limerick 21 1 4.8% −18.80
Leopardstown 21 1 4.8% −8.00
Cork 20 0 0% −20.00
Sligo 20 5 25% +34.00
Bellewstown 15 1 6.7% −9.50

Class

ClassRWSR£1
Class 1 63 3 4.8% −43.00
Class 2 5 0 0% −5.00
Class 3 1 0 0% −1.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite 14 3 21.4% 1.21 −2.30
2nd–3rd fav 47 7 14.9% 1.07 −11.50
4th–6th fav 117 10 8.5% 1.26 −26.50
7th+ in betting 417 7 1.7% 0.77 −260.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Jumping record

completion over obstacles · same window as header
80.3% completed · 391 obstacle runners (chases & hurdles)
CodeRCompFURPUBDOth
Chase 128 71.1% 4 5 27 0 1
Hurdle 263 84.8% 5 3 32 0 0
Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first
HorseRWPlLast ran
You Make Me Smile (IRE) 42 5 12 23 Oct 26
Spanish John (IRE) 41 3 9 23 Oct 26
History Of Fashion (IRE) 31 3 7 30 Nov 25
Brucejack (IRE) 30 2 7 31 Oct 26
Drop The Anchor (IRE) 29 2 2 12 Sep 25
Stormy Judge (IRE) 22 0 1 20 Jan 26
Prince Palace (FR)then P J Rothwell 21 1 7 11 Jan 26
He's Gorgeous (IRE) 17 1 6 18 Oct 26
Kingsofthemidlands (FR)from Andrew Balding 17 0 0 12 Apr 25
Eastern Blue Bird (IRE) 15 0 0 5 Aug 26
Sarah's Soldier (IRE) 15 0 1 21 Mar 24
Lauro's Legend (IRE) 14 0 1 22 Oct 26
Showing the 60 most-raced of the 74 horses sent out in this window — each ran at least 2 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 60 horses listed, 6 arrived from another yard in our archive; 54 had their first archived run for this yard.

10 have since run for another yard, most often for Gordon Elliott (2); 50 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

Current form

significance-gated

Last 14 days

Small sample
2 from 11
Only 11 runners in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.

When the yard fires

strike by month, 5 seasons
JFMAMJJASOND
622840433865
A jumps yard: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first
Go-to riderHarry Sexton
13% of all rides
6.3% SR · A/E 1.25
RiderRWSR£1
Harry Sexton 79 5 6.3% +1.50
Richard Condon 72 2 2.8% −59.80
Danny Mullins 59 5 8.5% −6.50
Michael O'Sullivan 32 3 9.4% +13.00
Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2005→
227
Archived wins
20
Pattern / graded wins
£4.18m
Prize money
2005
Best season · 25 wins
In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Drop The Anchor (IRE) — Ladbrokes Hurdle (Extended Handicap Hurdle) (0-150) (Grade B) Leopardstown · Feb 2021 · Grade B
£73,750
Drop The Anchor (IRE) — Colm White Bookmaker November Handicap (Premier Handicap) Naas · Nov 2022
£53,100
Morning Assembly (IRE) — Irish Daily Mirror Novice Hurdle (Grade 1) Punchestown · Apr 2013 · Grade 1
£49,600
Notable horses
Castlegrace Paddy (IRE) Western Boy (IRE) Drop The Anchor (IRE) My Valley (IRE) Dunvegan (FR) Head Turner (IRE)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip
Shantou (USA) 5.2% · 4–77
Progeny have won 13.6% of 7,829 runs since 2008 (539 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 20.3% from 158.
Elusive Pimpernel (USA) 10% · 5–50
Progeny have won 7.7% of 3,141 runs since 2015 (317 horses). Strongest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 10.7% from 382.
Vendangeur (IRE) 7.3% · 3–41
Progeny have won 9.2% of 775 runs since 2012 (82 horses). Weakest on Heavy going: 5.7% from 123.
Soldier of Fortune (IRE) 0% · 0–39
Progeny have won 11.3% of 5,869 runs since 2013 (684 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 6.5% from 336. Weakest over 1m – 1m1f (all codes): 3.2% from 249.
Fairly Ransom (USA) 0% · 0–35
Progeny have won 9.8% of 542 runs since 2009 (48 horses). Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 4.8% from 104.
Mustameet (USA) 9.7% · 3–31
Progeny have won 8.2% of 1,161 runs since 2013 (103 horses). Strongest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 12.5% from 248. Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 5% from 424.
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 2 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 3,737 · newest first

The latest 50 of 3,737 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 6 January 2005 to 31 October 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP
31 Oct 26 Down Royal (IRE) Brucejack (IRE)J: J. J. Slevin Start Your Racing TV Free Trial Now Handicap Steeplechase24f · Good · 12 ran 3rd 11/1
30 Oct 26 Down Royal (IRE) Dark Lieutenant (IRE)J: Danny Mullins Eventsec Handicap Hurdle24.5f · Good To Yielding · 20 ran 11th 4/1F
25 Oct 26 Wexford (IRE) Better Be Elusive (IRE)J: Mr D O'Sullivan Irish Stallion Farms EBF Mares (Pro/Am) Flat Race17.5f · Soft · 8 ran 5th 80/1
23 Oct 26 Sligo (IRE) Spanish John (IRE)J: Josh Williamson Solar Generation Handicap Hurdle25.5f · Yielding To Soft · 9 ran 3rd 15/2
23 Oct 26 Sligo (IRE) Moorish Castle (IRE)J: Danny Mullins Solar Generation Handicap Hurdle25.5f · Yielding To Soft · 9 ran 1st 25/1
23 Oct 26 Sligo (IRE) You Make Me Smile (IRE)J: Danny Mullins End Of An Era Handicap Hurdle20.5f · Yielding To Soft · 12 ran 1st 11/2
23 Oct 26 Sligo (IRE) Plus Or Minus (IRE)J: Danny Mullins Callan Tansey Handicap Hurdle (Div II)17.5f · Yielding · 13 ran 9th 16/1
23 Oct 26 Sligo (IRE) Home By The Sea (IRE)J: Danny Mullins Callan Tansey Handicap Hurdle (Div I)17.5f · Yielding · 12 ran 10th 5/1
22 Oct 26 Clonmel (IRE) Lauro's Legend (IRE)J: Richard Condon Mahon Falls Novice Handicap Hurdle20f · Good To Yielding · 13 ran PU 100/1
22 Oct 26 Clonmel (IRE) Senorita Diana (IRE)J: Richard Condon Irish Stallion Farms EBF Mares Maiden Hurdle20f · Good To Yielding · 12 ran 10th 300/1
22 Oct 26 Clonmel (IRE) Dark Lieutenant (IRE)J: Mr D O'Sullivan Kilclooney Woods (Q.R.) Handicap Hurdle17f · Good To Yielding · 16 ran 2nd 25/1
19 Oct 26 Gowran Park (IRE) Stormy Dawn (IRE)J: W. J. Lee Golf At Gowran Park Nursery Handicap7f · Yielding · 12 ran 2nd 9/2
18 Oct 26 Limerick (IRE) He's Gorgeous (IRE)J: Danny Mullins STL Logistics Handicap Steeplechase19.5f · Good To Yielding · 8 ran 3rd 7/1
18 Oct 26 Limerick (IRE) Robbie Diamonds (IRE)J: Richard Condon Irish Wire Products (C & G) Maiden Hurdle16.5f · Good To Yielding · 11 ran 9th 66/1
13 Oct 26 Punchestown (IRE) Plus Or Minus (IRE)J: Richard Condon William Hill Challenge Series Handicap Hurdle (Div I)20f · Good · 15 ran 11th 40/1
02 Oct 26 Gowran Park (IRE) Brucejack (IRE)J: Richard Condon Paddy Monaghan 90th Birthday Handicap Hurdle20f · Good · 14 ran 8th 22/1
02 Oct 26 Gowran Park (IRE) Moorish Castle (IRE)J: Richard Condon Racing TV Handicap Hurdle (Div I)20f · Good · 20 ran 17th 66/1
02 Oct 26 Gowran Park (IRE) Barrow Side Boy (IRE)J: Richard Condon 1xBet.ie Supports Safer Gambling Maiden Hurdle20f · Good · 17 ran 14th 100/1
02 Oct 26 Gowran Park (IRE) Senorita Diana (IRE)J: J J Slevin 1xBet.ie Supports Safer Gambling Maiden Hurdle20f · Good · 17 ran 13th 150/1
02 Oct 26 Gowran Park (IRE) Plus Or Minus (IRE)J: Richard Condon Willis Towers Watson Maiden Hurdle16.5f · Good To Yielding · 13 ran 10th 200/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is P A Fahy's strike rate?
P A Fahy has won 27 of 595 runners since 2022, a strike rate of 4.5% (as at 2 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does P A Fahy do best at?
Clonmel by strike rate: 3 wins from 39 runners (7.7%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for P A Fahy?
Harry Sexton, with 79 runners since 2022 — 13% of the total. That pairing has won 5 (6.3%).
Is P A Fahy in form?
Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 11 runners, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is P A Fahy's Fair A/E?
1.04, from 595 runners with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%". Three sample sizes are reported and never blended: runs (n), the ROI basis (n at SP), and the fair-A/E basis (n with a computed fair probability).

Strike rate is wins over all runs (n). ROI is £1 level stakes at SP over runs with a parseable price (n at SP). Fair A/E is wins over margin-stripped market expectation, over runs with a computed fair probability (n fair). The three Ns can legitimately differ and are always shown. Figures as at 2 November 2026, computed from our own results archive (2005 onwards; aggregates from 2008).