Thomas Reilly
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
Rides around 30 times a season, almost all over hurdles and fences, winning on 4% of them — level with the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 1.02). Rides mostly for John C McConnell — 41% of rides in the window.
Rides in big fields of 14 or more have been a poor signal at 1.1% (n=88, Fair A/E 0.43). John C McConnell supplies 41% of the rides and edges the rider's average (7.1% vs 4.4%, A/E 1.17) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. The rider also reads well over 2m5f – 3m (10.3%, n=39). The record reads poorly over 1m5f – 2m — 0% over 31 rides, 4.4pts below the baseline. The market has consistently overbet the rider over 2m1f – 2m4f: Fair A/E 0.41 across 61 rides (1.6% strike, −56.67 to a £1 stake) — runners there underperform what the price implies.
Riding patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 4.4% baselineEach tile is the record in that situation vs the 4.4% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.
Notable angles
vs their own baselineRecord by conditions
same window as headerRace type
Going
Courses
Class
Market position
Distance
By season
Handicaps
Field size
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
Jumping record
completion over obstacles · same window as headerHorses ridden
same window as header · most-raced firstBy month
strike by month, 5 seasonsRiding for
same window · biggest samples firstCareer highlights
lifetime archive, 2006→Sires of the horses ridden
progeny record · win % by ground and tripThe record
latest 50 of 301 · newest firstThe latest 50 of 301 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 19 April 2006 to 26 April 2024.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
- What is Thomas Reilly's strike rate?
- Thomas Reilly has won 6 of 135 rides since 2022, a strike rate of 4.4% (as at 29 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
- Which yard does Thomas Reilly ride most for?
- John C McConnell, with 56 rides since 2022 — 41% of the total. That pairing has won 4 (7.1%).
- What is Thomas Reilly's Fair A/E?
- 1.02, from 135 rides with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.