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Trainer profile

Francis Casey

124 runners in the last 5 seasons · 13 individual horses
As at 20 Oct 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily
Last runner yesterday
Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2018→)
from 1 Jan 2022
6–124
Wins / Runs
4.8%
Strike rate
n=124
20 (16%)
Placed
0.76
Fair A/E
n=124 · 0.61 incl. margin
−91.18
£1 level stake
n=124 at SP · −73.5%
£91,234
Prize money (window)
Strike by season
0%
KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 20 runners a season, across both codes, winning with 5% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 0.76).

Deterministic profile computed from 124 archived runs (last 5 seasons) · updated 20 Oct 2026

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 4.8% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
0%−4.8
n=26 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −26.00
Debutants · first career start
0%−4.8
n=9 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −9.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
0%−4.8
n=6 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −6.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
0%−4.8
n=4 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −4.00
When favourite
33.3%
n=9 · A/E 1.15 · £1 −2.68
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
3.4%−1.4
n=87 · A/E 0.58 · £1 −62.25
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
0%−4.8
n=14 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −14.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 4.8% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline
In Flat races 0% vs 4.8% · n=41
With horses switching code 0% vs 4.8% · n=33
With a new jockey booking 1.7% vs 4.8% · n=59
On Soft going 7.5% vs 4.8% · n=53
Over 1m5f – 2m 7.1% vs 4.8% · n=42
In Hurdle races 6.8% vs 4.8% · n=59
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1
Hurdle 59 4 6.8% −29.75
Flat 41 0 0% −41.00
Chase 17 2 11.8% −13.43
NH Flat 7 0 0% −7.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1
Soft 53 4 7.5% −23.75
Good 25 2 8% −21.43
Good to Soft 21 0 0% −21.00
Standard (AW) 17 0 0% −17.00
Heavy 8 0 0% −8.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1
Dundalk (AW) 17 0 0% −17.00
Leopardstown 11 0 0% −11.00
Navan 9 0 0% −9.00
Down Royal 9 0 0% −9.00
Downpatrick 8 0 0% −8.00
Naas 7 1 14.3% −2.50
Limerick 7 0 0% −7.00
Kilbeggan 6 0 0% −6.00
Killarney 6 2 33.3% +11.00
Thurles 5 1 20% −3.43
Fairyhouse 5 0 0% −5.00
Gowran Park 4 0 0% −4.00
Punchestown 4 0 0% −4.00
Sligo 4 0 0% −4.00
Galway 3 0 0% −3.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1
Class 1 15 0 0% −15.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite 11 3 27.3% 1.01 −4.68
2nd–3rd fav 14 1 7.1% 0.57 −9.50
4th–6th fav 28 1 3.6% 0.52 −21.00
7th+ in betting 71 1 1.4% 0.76 −56.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first
HorseRWPlLast ran
Palace Rock (IRE) 20 1 7 19 Oct 26
Rock Ya Boy Ya (IRE) 20 3 7 27 Oct 25
Jazzy Rock (IRE) 16 0 3 8 Oct 26
Max Flamingo (IRE) 16 2 2 26 Apr 24
Adam's Angel (IRE) 12 0 1 13 May 23
Go Avel (IRE) 11 0 0 10 Jul 26
What's Lariat Now (IRE) 9 0 0 20 Sep 24
Saoirses Choice (IRE) 5 0 0 10 Oct 26
Sally's Cave (IRE) 5 0 0 6 Sep 24
Erne Star (IRE) 4 0 0 26 Dec 23
Beachbabebiddy (IRE) 3 0 0 27 Oct 23
Starword (IRE) 2 0 0 12 Jan 26
All 13 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 13 horses listed, none arrived from another yard in our archive — all 13 had their first archived run here.

None of them has a later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

Current form

significance-gated

Last 14 days

Small sample
0 from 3
Only 3 runners in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.

When the yard fires

strike by month, 5 seasons
JFMAMJJASOND
014801100001000
Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first
RiderRWSR£1
Alix Balfe 15 3 20% +9.75
Thomas Reilly 13 0 0% −13.00
James Ryan 11 0 0% −11.00
Conor Maxwell 10 0 0% −10.00
P J O'Hanlon 10 0 0% −10.00
Jack Kearney 8 0 0% −8.00
Denis O'Regan 7 2 28.6% −0.93
Robert Whearty 6 0 0% −6.00
Ivan Ryan 5 0 0% −5.00
Alex Harvey 5 0 0% −5.00
Ben Harvey 5 0 0% −5.00
Declan McDonogh 3 0 0% −3.00
Muted rows are under 30 rides.

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2018→
18
Archived wins
£267k
Prize money
2021
Best season · 4 wins
Max Flamingo (IRE) — Fairyhouse Steel Handicap Hurdle (0-140) Fairyhouse · Apr 2021
£12,390
Eight Till Late (IRE) — Join The Coral Bet & Get Club Rated Hurdle Punchestown · Oct 2018
£12,320
Ar Eagla Na Heagla (GB) — Ladbrokes Handicap Chase Down Royal · Nov 2019
£10,656
Notable horses
Max Flamingo (IRE) Rock Ya Boy Ya (IRE) Palace Rock (IRE) Ar Eagla Na Heagla (GB) Eight Till Late (IRE) Giorni Felice (IRE)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip
Red Jazz (USA) 8.3% · 3–36
Progeny have won 7.7% of 1,868 runs since 2008 (130 horses). Strongest on Good to Soft going: 11.1% from 171.
Battle Of Marengo (IRE) 5% · 1–20
Progeny have won 7.4% of 955 runs since 2008 (89 horses). Strongest over 1m2f – 1m4f (all codes): 12.6% from 198.
Court Cave (IRE) 0% · 0–16
Progeny have won 10.1% of 7,928 runs since 2008 (551 horses). Weakest on Heavy going: 6.9% from 934.
Kalanisi (IRE) 12.5% · 2–16
Progeny have won 10.5% of 6,742 runs since 2008 (648 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 16.1% from 355.
Prince Of Lir (IRE) 0% · 0–12
Progeny have won 8.9% of 1,369 runs since 2008 (104 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 15% from 200.
Golden Lariat (USA) 0% · 0–9
Progeny have won 10% of 570 runs since 2008 (54 horses). Strongest on Good to Soft going: 13.2% from 114. Weakest on Soft going: 5.5% from 181.
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 20 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 270 · newest first

The latest 50 of 270 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 22 March 2018 to 19 October 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP
19 Oct 26 Gowran Park (IRE) Palace Rock (IRE)J: Megan de Souza-Wearen Racing Again November 7th Handicap12f · Soft · 14 ran 14th 150/1
10 Oct 26 Naas (IRE) Saoirses Choice (IRE)J: James Ryan WTW Willis Fillies Maiden7f · Soft · 11 ran 10th 400/1
08 Oct 26 Thurles (IRE) Jazzy Rock (IRE)J: Megan de Souza-Wearen Welcome Back To Thurles Handicap12.5f · Yielding · 14 ran 6th 14/1
28 Aug 26 Down Royal (IRE) Saoirses Choice (IRE)J: Alix Balfe Dale Farm Dromona Mares Maiden Hurdle17.5f · Good · 10 ran UR 80/1
06 Aug 26 Sligo (IRE) Saoirses Choice (IRE)J: Alix Balfe Martin Reilly Hyundai Mares Maiden Hurdle18f · Good · 13 ran 9th 14/1
12 Jul 26 Sligo (IRE) Megaball (IRE)J: Alix Balfe Durkin Bros. Electrical Maiden Hurdle17.5f · Good · 11 ran PU 100/1
10 Jul 26 Kilbeggan Go Avel (IRE)J: Patrick M O'Brien New Forest Estate & Golf Club Handicap Hurdle (0-100)25f · Good · 15 ran 9th 33/1
13 Jun 26 Downpatrick Go Avel (IRE)J: Mr B M Coonan Denvir's Of Downpatrick (Q.R.) Handicap Hurdle (0-100) (Div 1)22f · Good · 14 ran 9th 25/1
07 Jun 26 Punchestown Saoirses Choice (IRE)J: Alix Balfe Irish Stallion Farms EBF Mares (Pro/Am) Flat Race16.5f · Good To Yielding · 10 ran 9th 33/1
28 May 26 Limerick Saoirses Choice (IRE)J: Mr B M Coonan Irish Stallion Farms EBF Mares Flat Race16f · Soft · 8 ran 4th 16/1
28 May 26 Limerick Go Avel (IRE)J: Alix Balfe Irish Wire Products Ltd. Handicap Hurdle (0-100) (Div 2)20f · Soft · 15 ran 4th 40/1
12 May 26 Sligo Go Avel (IRE)J: Alix Balfe Rosses Point Caravan Park Handicap Hurdle (0-100)18f · Good · 15 ran 9th 40/1
12 Jan 26 Punchestown Starword (IRE)J: Alix Balfe Matchbook 50:50 Graduation Series Maiden Hurdle16f · Soft To Heavy · 15 ran SU 250/1
29 Dec 25 Leopardstown Starword (IRE)J: Alix Balfe Irish Stallion Farms EBF Academy Hurdle18f · Good To Yielding · 15 ran 11th 80/1
17 Nov 25 Navan Jazzy Rock (IRE)J: Alix Balfe Hotel Park St. Johann In Tirol Austria Handicap Hurdle16f · Soft To Heavy · 11 ran 7th 10/1
27 Oct 25 Wexford Rock Ya Boy Ya (IRE)J: Alix Balfe Start Your Free Trial On Racing TV Now Rated Novice Hurdle16.5f · Yielding · 7 ran 1st 6/1
23 Oct 25 Clonmel Jazzy Rock (IRE)J: Alix Balfe Irish Stallion Farms EBF Mares Maiden Hurdle20f · Yielding · 12 ran 4th 8/1
09 Oct 25 Tramore Rock Ya Boy Ya (IRE)J: Alix Balfe Ardmore Handicap Hurdle (0-100)16f · Yielding · 8 ran 1st 7/4F
05 Oct 25 Killarney Rock Ya Boy Ya (IRE)J: Alix Balfe O'Sullivan's Cascade Handicap Hurdle (0-100)17f · Yielding · 13 ran 1st 14/1
05 Oct 25 Killarney Jazzy Rock (IRE)J: Alix Balfe Irish Stallion Farms EBF Mares Maiden Hurdle17f · Yielding · 10 ran 2nd 7/2

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Francis Casey's strike rate?
Francis Casey has won 6 of 124 runners since 2022, a strike rate of 4.8% (as at 20 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Is Francis Casey in form?
Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 3 runners, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is Francis Casey's Fair A/E?
0.76, from 124 runners with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%". Three sample sizes are reported and never blended: runs (n), the ROI basis (n at SP), and the fair-A/E basis (n with a computed fair probability).

Strike rate is wins over all runs (n). ROI is £1 level stakes at SP over runs with a parseable price (n at SP). Fair A/E is wins over margin-stripped market expectation, over runs with a computed fair probability (n fair). The three Ns can legitimately differ and are always shown. Figures as at 20 October 2026, computed from our own results archive (2005 onwards; aggregates from 2008).