What is Tom Messenger's strike rate?

Tom Messenger has won 84 of 1,439 rides since 2008, a strike rate of 5.8% (as at 29 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does Tom Messenger do best at?

Hexham by strike rate: 10 wins from 45 rides (22.2%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Which yard does Tom Messenger ride most for?

Chris Bealby, with 542 rides since 2008 — 38% of the total. That pairing has won 43 (7.9%).

What is Tom Messenger's Fair A/E?

0.90, from 1,436 rides with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Jockey profile

Tom Messenger

1,439 rides in the lifetime window · 652 individual horses

As at 29 Oct 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Last ride May 2016 100% of rides over jumps

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)

No rides in the last 5 seasons — showing the lifetime record, from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it.

84–1,439

Wins / Runs

5.8%

Strike rate

n=1,439

230 (16%)

Placed

0.90

Fair A/E

n=1,436 · 0.78 incl. margin

−580.39

£1 level stake

n=1,439 at SP · −40.3%

£537k

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

20%

KTB Rider Profile

Rode around 160 times a season, almost all over hurdles and fences, winning on 6% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 0.90). Riding last-time-out winners the record reads 10% (83 rides).

Deterministic profile computed from 1,439 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 29 Oct 2026

KTB at a glance Fresh horses: 6.7% 23.1% when favourite Chris Bealby: 7.9% from 542 LTO winners: 9.6% Claiming: 6.3% Rode the favourite in 3% of races

The read

The record is strongest at Hexham (22.2%, n=45), clear of the rider's 5.8% baseline. It is weakest at Bangor-on-Dee (0% over 37 rides) — the widest gap in the record. Rides on last-time-out winners have been a positive signal at 9.6% (n=83, Fair A/E 0.70), but first rides on a horse have been a poor signal at 2.4% (n=582, Fair A/E 0.54). Chris Bealby supplied 38% of the rides and edges the rider's average (7.9% vs 5.8%, A/E 0.99) — the market has that partnership priced right. The rider also read well in Chase races (11.3%, n=524). The standout partner of the record was Bennynthejets (IRE) — 5 wins from 24 rides together.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Riding patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 5.8% baseline

First ride on the horse · first captured pairing

2.4%−3.4

n=582 · A/E 0.54 · £1 −342.27

Last-time-out winners · previous run was a win

9.6%+3.8

n=83 · A/E 0.70 · £1 −6.50

Fresh horses · 61+ days off

6.7%+0.9

n=326 · A/E 1.28 · £1 −50.50

When favourite

23.1%

n=39 · A/E 0.85 · £1 −8.27

Claiming rides · riding with a claim

6.3%+0.5

n=315 · A/E 1.02 · £1 −42.75

Big fields · 14+ runners

3.8%−2.0

n=318 · A/E 1.04 · £1 −51.00

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

0%−5.8

n=12 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −12.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 5.8% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

At Hexham 22.2% vs 5.8% · n=45

In Chase races 11.3% vs 5.8% · n=524

With debutants 0% vs 5.8% · n=105

On first rides for the horse 2.4% vs 5.8% · n=582

With C&D winners 10.6% vs 5.8% · n=85

At Bangor-on-Dee 0% vs 5.8% · n=37

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1

Hurdle 787 23 2.9% −511.12

Chase 524 59 11.3% +42.33

NH Flat 128 2 1.6% −111.60

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Good 563 34 6% −206.62

Good to Soft 299 17 5.7% −101.17

Soft 288 13 4.5% −194.00

Good to Firm 182 17 9.3% −18.60

Heavy 93 3 3.2% −46.00

Standard (AW) 13 0 0% −13.00

Firm 1 0 0% −1.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Market Rasen 168 13 7.7% −52.00

Uttoxeter 120 6 5% −50.00

Southwell 108 6 5.6% −74.75

Towcester 106 6 5.7% −63.79

Fakenham 78 8 10.3% −24.50

Huntingdon 71 1 1.4% −67.00

Sedgefield 56 4 7.1% +5.00

Wetherby 56 4 7.1% −31.50

Hexham 45 10 22.2% +57.90

Leicester 43 4 9.3% −2.00

Doncaster 42 1 2.4% −8.00

Catterick 41 3 7.3% +0.50

Bangor-on-Dee 37 0 0% −37.00

Perth 37 1 2.7% −30.00

Worcester 35 3 8.6% +1.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 4 727 42 5.8% −284.62

Class 5 424 26 6.1% −193.92

Class 3 171 15 8.8% +13.75

Class 6 76 1 1.3% −74.60

Class 2 21 0 0% −21.00

Class 1 20 0 0% −20.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 51 11 21.6% 0.83 −10.27

2nd–3rd fav 201 30 14.9% 0.98 −44.12

4th–6th fav 429 27 6.3% 0.91 −162.00

7th+ in betting 758 16 2.1% 0.81 −364.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Jumping record

completion over obstacles · same window as header

72.2% completed · 1,311 obstacle rides (chases & hurdles)

CodeRCompFURPUBDOth

Chase 524 69.8% 15 17 125 0 1

Hurdle 787 73.8% 15 13 173 3 2

Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.

Horses ridden

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Persian Gates (IRE) 24 5 9 1 Sep 12

Chac Du Cadran (FR) 21 3 9 20 May 15

Ifonlyalfie (GB) 20 1 8 18 Jun 14

L'eldorado (FR) 20 4 6 10 May 13

Bennynthejets (IRE) 20 4 8 29 May 12

Roi De Garde (FR) 18 1 3 29 Apr 13

Legendary Hop (GB) 15 2 4 18 Dec 14

Sir Lynx (IRE) 13 2 5 22 Mar 15

Countess Comet (IRE) 13 2 3 4 May 13

The Purchaser (IRE) 12 1 3 4 Oct 15

Panama At Once (GB) 12 3 6 1 Apr 11

Rebel Flag (IRE) 11 0 2 9 May 13

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 652 horses ridden in this window — each ran at least 5 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

By month

strike by month, lifetime

JFMAMJJASOND

44661056310775

A jumps rider: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Riding for

same window · biggest samples first

Main yardChris Bealby

38% of all rides
7.9% SR · A/E 0.99

TrainerRWSR£1

Chris Bealby 542 43 7.9% −172.37

Caroline Bailey 103 10 9.7% +25.33

Sandy Forster 66 6 9.1% −7.50

Anabel K Murphy 34 2 5.9% −15.00

Joss Saville 33 3 9.1% +3.75

Ben Pollock 32 0 0% −32.00

Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2005→

135

Archived wins

£933k

Prize money

2007

Best season · 26 wins

In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.

Chac Du Cadran (FR) — North Yorkshire Grand National Handicap Chase Catterick · Jan 2013 · Class 3

£12,512

Doctor David (GB) — sports360.co.uk Handicap Hurdle Haydock · Mar 2008 · Class 3

£9,759

Surface To Air (GB) — Boddingtons Durham National Handicap Chase Sedgefield · Apr 2008 · Class 3

£9,393

Notable horses

Bennynthejets (IRE) Persian Gates (IRE) L'eldorado (FR) Panama At Once (GB) Justwhateverulike (IRE) Chac Du Cadran (FR)

Sires of the horses ridden

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Beneficial (GB) 16.7% · 7–42

Progeny have won 10.4% of 17,044 runs since 2008 (1,155 horses).

Anshan (GB) 16.2% · 6–37

Progeny have won 9.6% of 4,216 runs since 2008 (387 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 14.2% from 520.

Alflora (IRE) 6.1% · 2–33

Progeny have won 9.8% of 5,312 runs since 2008 (535 horses).

Kapgarde (FR) 4% · 1–25

Progeny have won 12.5% of 6,618 runs since 2008 (724 horses).

Midnight Legend (GB) 8.3% · 2–24

Progeny have won 14.2% of 8,310 runs since 2008 (494 horses).

Overbury (IRE) 0% · 0–23

Progeny have won 10.7% of 4,657 runs since 2008 (423 horses).

Top line: the rider's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 29 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 2,485 · newest first

The latest 50 of 2,485 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 6 January 2005 to 22 May 2016.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

22 May 16 Fakenham Fort Gabriel (FR)T: Fiona Kehoe 1st Queen's Dragoon Guards Handicap Chase (For The Prince Of Wales Cup)Class 5 · 24f · Good · 8 ran 3rd 11/4F

20 May 16 Stratford Dylan's Storm (IRE)T: David Dennis Luxurious Boutique White Swan Hotel Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 18.5f · Good · 13 ran 11th 33/1

02 May 16 Kempton Funny Irish (FR)T: Fiona Kehoe racinguk.com Novices' ChaseClass 3 · 20.5f · Good · 5 ran PU 66/1

20 Apr 16 Taunton Fort Gabriel (FR)T: Fiona Kehoe Bathwick Tyres Bridgwater Novices' Handicap ChaseClass 4 · 23f · Good · 7 ran 1st 25/1

28 Mar 16 Huntingdon Smartmax (FR)T: Caroline Bailey Cambridge Lexus Handicap ChaseClass 5 · 23.5f · Soft · 5 ran UR 9/4

21 Mar 16 Southwell Diego Suarez (FR)T: Chris Bealby At The Races Sky 415 Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 20.5f · Good · 12 ran 6th 7/1

21 Mar 16 Southwell Another Journey (GB)T: Sarah-Jayne Davies Southwell Golf Club Membership Handicap ChaseClass 4 · 15.5f · Good · 6 ran PU 28/1

18 Mar 16 Fakenham Miss Dimples (IRE)T: Sarah-Jayne Davies Marham Handicap Chase (For The Walter Wales Memorial Cup)Class 5 · 21f · Good · 6 ran 1st 10/1

18 Mar 16 Fakenham Wings Attract (IRE)T: Chris Bealby Prince Carlton Handicap Chase (For The Prince Carlton Challenge Cup)Class 3 · 24f · Good · 6 ran 1st 3/1

09 Mar 16 Catterick Fire (IRE)T: Chris Bealby Racing Uk In Glorious Hd Novices' Handicap ChaseClass 4 · 15.5f · Soft · 6 ran PU 10/1

28 Feb 16 Southwell Black Lily (IRE)T: Chris Bealby Attheraces.com Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 24f · Good To Soft · 14 ran 5th 7/1

25 Feb 16 Huntingdon Funny Irish (FR)T: Fiona Kehoe Watch The Cheltenham Festival On RacingUK 'National Hunt' Maiden Hurdle (Div 2)Class 5 · 20.5f · Good To Soft · 11 ran 8th 100/1

21 Feb 16 Market Rasen Wings Attract (IRE)T: Chris Bealby 32Red Novices' ChaseClass 3 · 21.5f · Soft · 4 ran 2nd 9/2

17 Feb 16 Towcester Cadgers Hole (GB)T: Lynn Siddall Skybet Cheltenham Preview Here March 7th Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 19f · Soft · 17 ran PU 50/1

30 Jan 16 Uttoxeter Cul Dealga (IRE)T: Chris Bealby Ashleigh Builders Novices' Handicap ChaseClass 4 · 24f · Heavy · 9 ran PU 11/1

26 Dec 15 Market Rasen Fire (IRE)T: Chris Bealby Lees Of Grimsby Furnishers Novices' Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 20.5f · Soft · 9 ran 8th 6/1

26 Dec 15 Market Rasen King's Road (GB)T: Anabel K Murphy Mount & Minster Chartered Surveyors & Land Agents Selling Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 16.5f · Soft · 9 ran 7th 5/1

20 Dec 15 Fakenham Wings Attract (IRE)T: Chris Bealby At The Races Handicap ChaseClass 3 · 21f · Good To Soft · 8 ran 3rd 9/4F

13 Dec 15 Southwell Smartmax (FR)T: Caroline Bailey Vertu VW Mansfield Handicap ChaseClass 4 · 20.5f · Soft · 5 ran 3rd 7/4F

03 Dec 15 Market Rasen Black Lily (IRE)T: Chris Bealby Racing Fx Online Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 23f · Heavy · 7 ran 2nd 7/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Tom Messenger's strike rate?: Tom Messenger has won 84 of 1,439 rides since 2008, a strike rate of 5.8% (as at 29 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Tom Messenger do best at?: Hexham by strike rate: 10 wins from 45 rides (22.2%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Which yard does Tom Messenger ride most for?: Chris Bealby, with 542 rides since 2008 — 38% of the total. That pairing has won 43 (7.9%).
What is Tom Messenger's Fair A/E?: 0.90, from 1,436 rides with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.