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Trainer profile

Caroline Bailey

38 runners in the last 5 seasons · 8 individual horses
As at 15 Oct 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily
Last runner Jun 2022 100% of runners over jumps
Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)
from 1 Jan 2022
2–38
Wins / Runs
5.3%
Strike rate
n=38
7 (18%)
Placed
0.47
Fair A/E
n=38 · 0.41 incl. margin
−29.75
£1 level stake
n=38 at SP · −78.3%
£25,050
Prize money (window)

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 5.3% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
0%−5.3
n=1 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −1.00
New recruits · first run for the yard
0%−5.3
n=1 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −1.00
Debutants · first career start
0%−5.3
n=1 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −1.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
0%−5.3
n=1 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −1.00
When favourite
0%
n=3 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −3.00
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
0%−5.3
n=15 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −15.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 5.3% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1
Chase 19 0 0% −19.00
Hurdle 18 2 11.1% −9.75
NH Flat 1 0 0% −1.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1
Good 21 2 9.5% −12.75
Soft 10 0 0% −10.00
Good to Soft 7 0 0% −7.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1
Huntingdon 13 1 7.7% −9.25
Southwell 10 1 10% −5.50
Leicester 3 0 0% −3.00
Stratford 2 0 0% −2.00
Uttoxeter 2 0 0% −2.00
Doncaster 2 0 0% −2.00
Fakenham 2 0 0% −2.00
Warwick 1 0 0% −1.00
Wetherby 1 0 0% −1.00
Chepstow 1 0 0% −1.00
Newbury 1 0 0% −1.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1
Class 5 22 2 9.1% −13.75
Class 4 14 0 0% −14.00
Class 3 2 0 0% −2.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite 4 0 0% 0.00 −4.00
2nd–3rd fav 12 2 16.7% 0.94 −3.75
4th–6th fav 12 0 0% 0.00 −12.00
7th+ in betting 10 0 0% 0.00 −10.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Jumping record

completion over obstacles · same window as header
78.4% completed · 37 obstacle runners (chases & hurdles)
CodeRCompFURPUBDOth
Chase 19 78.9% 1 0 3 0 0
Hurdle 18 77.8% 0 0 4 0 0
Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first
HorseRWPlLast ran
Lord Sparky (GB)then Stuart Edmunds 8 0 4 23 May 22
Matchmaking (GER)from Sir Mark Prescott Bt · then L J Morgan 7 2 2 20 Jun 22
Hunky (FR) 6 0 0 22 May 22
Elkstone (GB)from Alan King 6 0 0 3 May 22
Begin The Luck (IRE)then Brian Barr 5 0 1 23 May 22
Cobra De Mai (FR)from Dan Skelton 3 0 0 2 Apr 22
Coole Lion (IRE) 2 0 0 21 Mar 22
Ready To Please (GB)then Stuart Edmunds 1 0 0 3 Jan 22
All 8 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 8 horses listed, 3 arrived from another yard in our archive; 5 had their first archived run for this yard.

4 have since run for another yard, most often for Stuart Edmunds (2); 4 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

When the yard fires

strike by month, 5 seasons
JFMAMJJASOND
00017050······
A jumps yard: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first
RiderRWSR£1
Mr Jack Andrews 16 1 6.3% −12.25
Sean Bowen 8 0 0% −8.00
Jack Quinlan 6 1 16.7% −1.50
Jamie Moore 2 0 0% −2.00
James Bowen 2 0 0% −2.00
Philip Armson 2 0 0% −2.00
David Bass 1 0 0% −1.00
Alex Edwards 1 0 0% −1.00
Muted rows are under 30 rides.

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2005→
182
Archived wins
£1.48m
Prize money
2014
Best season · 21 wins
In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Crosspark (GB) — Vertem Eider Handicap Chase Newcastle · Feb 2019 · Class 2
£50,048
Noble Legend (GB) — BetVictor Grand National 6 Places Handicap Chase (Jockey Club Grassroots Chase Series Final) Haydock · Mar 2013 · Class 2
£32,490
Malapie (IRE) — Golden Miller Handicap Hurdle Leicester · Jan 2018 · Class 3
£9,865
Notable horses
Noble Legend (GB) Galway Jack (IRE) Prince des Marais (FR) Crosspark (GB) High Ron (GB) Dealing River (GB)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip
Sulamani (IRE) 0% · 0–8
Progeny have won 11.5% of 4,243 runs since 2008 (278 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 8.1% from 479. Strongest beyond 3m (all codes): 15.4% from 240.
Mastercraftsman (IRE) 28.6% · 2–7
Progeny have won 10.6% of 11,622 runs since 2008 (842 horses).
Midnight Legend (GB) 0% · 0–6
Progeny have won 14.2% of 8,308 runs since 2008 (494 horses).
Tirwanako (FR) 0% · 0–6
Progeny have won 16.3% of 282 runs since 2008 (41 horses). Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 12.8% from 133.
Le Fou (IRE) 0% · 0–5
Progeny have won 8.3% of 1,413 runs since 2008 (137 horses). Strongest on Good to Soft going: 12.2% from 238.
Great Pretender (IRE) 0% · 0–3
Progeny have won 13% of 3,528 runs since 2008 (410 horses). Strongest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 16.5% from 728. Weakest over 1m2f – 1m4f (all codes): 6.6% from 151.
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 15 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 1,587 · newest first

The latest 50 of 1,587 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 11 March 2005 to 20 June 2022.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP
20 Jun 22 Southwell Matchmaking (GER)J: Sean Bowen Prestige Safety Nationwide H&S Support Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 24.5f · Good · 12 ran 9th 5/2F
03 Jun 22 Huntingdon Matchmaking (GER)J: Mr Jack Andrews Directors Conditional Jockeys' Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 25f · Good · 6 ran 1st 11/4
23 May 22 Huntingdon Begin The Luck (IRE)J: Mr Jack Andrews Bet At racingtv.com Handicap HurdleClass 4 · 16f · Good · 6 ran 6th 16/1
23 May 22 Huntingdon Lord Sparky (GB)J: Mr Jack Andrews Visit racingtv.com Handicap ChaseClass 4 · 20f · Good · 6 ran 3rd 85/40
22 May 22 Fakenham Hunky (FR)J: Jamie Moore Racingtv Proud To Welcome Fakenham Racecourse Novices' Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 23.5f · Good · 8 ran PU 15/2
07 May 22 Warwick Lord Sparky (GB)J: Mr Jack Andrews Racing Tv Conditional Jockeys' Handicap ChaseClass 5 · 24f · Good · 9 ran 2nd 7/2
03 May 22 Fakenham Elkstone (GB)J: Jack Quinlan 100% RacingTV Profits Back Into Racing Handicap ChaseClass 5 · 21f · Good · 7 ran F 14/1
30 Apr 22 Uttoxeter Hunky (FR)J: Mr Jack Andrews 61 Deep Pale Ale Novices' Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 23.5f · Good · 15 ran 5th 50/1
22 Apr 22 Southwell Begin The Luck (IRE)J: Mr Jack Andrews At The Races App Form Study Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 16f · Good · 14 ran PU 9/4F
22 Apr 22 Southwell Matchmaking (GER)J: Jack Quinlan Cazoo Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 24.5f · Good · 10 ran 1st 7/2
18 Apr 22 Huntingdon Lord Sparky (GB)J: Mr Jack Andrews Visit Racingtv.com Handicap ChaseClass 5 · 23.5f · Good · 7 ran 2nd 11/4
05 Apr 22 Southwell Matchmaking (GER)J: Sean Bowen Off The Fence On youtube.com/attheraces Novices' Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 20.5f · Good · 14 ran 4th 13/2
02 Apr 22 Chepstow Cobra De Mai (FR)J: David Bass Price Promise At bet365 Handicap ChaseClass 4 · 23.5f · Good · 7 ran 5th 11/2
31 Mar 22 Wetherby Lord Sparky (GB)J: Sean Bowen racingtv.com Handicap ChaseClass 4 · 24f · Soft · 9 ran 4th 9/1
26 Mar 22 Stratford Hunky (FR)J: Mr Jack Andrews Margaret Banister Birthday Celebration Novices' Hurdle (GBB Race)Class 4 · 16.5f · Good · 10 ran 5th 80/1
26 Mar 22 Stratford Elkstone (GB)J: Mr Jack Andrews 25 Club Handicap ChaseClass 4 · 19.5f · Good · 4 ran 3rd 8/1
21 Mar 22 Southwell Coole Lion (IRE)J: Sean Bowen Cazoo Handicap ChaseClass 4 · 24.5f · Good · 6 ran PU 13/2
16 Mar 22 Huntingdon Lord Sparky (GB)J: Mr Jack Andrews tote Pool School Now On YouTube Handicap ChaseClass 5 · 23.5f · Soft · 9 ran 2nd 4/1
16 Mar 22 Huntingdon Elkstone (GB)J: James Bowen 25 Matched First Bet At tote.co.uk Handicap ChaseClass 5 · 20f · Good · 8 ran 4th 10/1
07 Mar 22 Southwell Begin The Luck (IRE)J: Philip Armson Read Davy Russell On Starsportsbet.co.uk Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 16f · Good To Soft · 10 ran 4th 15/8F

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Caroline Bailey's strike rate?
Caroline Bailey has won 2 of 38 runners since 2022, a strike rate of 5.3% (as at 15 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
What is Caroline Bailey's Fair A/E?
0.47, from 38 runners with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%". Three sample sizes are reported and never blended: runs (n), the ROI basis (n at SP), and the fair-A/E basis (n with a computed fair probability).

Strike rate is wins over all runs (n). ROI is £1 level stakes at SP over runs with a parseable price (n at SP). Fair A/E is wins over margin-stripped market expectation, over runs with a computed fair probability (n fair). The three Ns can legitimately differ and are always shown. Figures as at 15 October 2026, computed from our own results archive (2005 onwards; aggregates from 2008).