2:20 Hexham
This Class 4 novices' hurdle at Hexham, a qualifier for the Go North Night Nurse Series and carrying GBB status, brings together nine runners over an extended two miles on good ground. The KTB Fit Scores are tightly bunched at the top, with Bogha Baiste just heading Argentum, while Dark Tide Rising and Mhordart sit on identical marks. Overall the numbers suggest a race short on established hurdling stars, where recent form, course familiarity and trainer record at Hexham will carry particular weight.
How the race shapes up
With no obvious leader in the field the pace shape points to a steadily-run, tactical contest in which being handy should prove an advantage. Most principals are held-up types who will be looking to produce their effort late, though the lack of early pace may compress the field and place the emphasis on timing. The key question is whether any runner can seize the initiative without burning too much gas, or whether the race will be decided by those coming from off the steady gallop.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Bogha Baiste KTB Selection51/100
Bogha Baiste possesses useful ability on his day yet has fallen below that level in both starts this season. He drops back in trip having been placed without winning at this distance before, although he is 0-5 on good ground. The trainer's modest 3% strike rate at Hexham from 63 runs adds a note of caution, while the jockey has a 14% strike rate at the track from 425 rides. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he will need the steadily-run affair to unfold in his favour from off the pace. His OR of 104 gives him a clear ceiling on what he can achieve if he returns to his better form.
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2Argentum50/100
Argentum arrives with a modest career record and was well beaten on his only start this season. He steps up markedly in trip today having shown only placed form on good ground from limited attempts, while the switch to Hexham is an unknown. The yard holds a 10% strike rate here from a large sample of 310 runners. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he will be looking to come from off the pace in what is expected to be a tactical race. Stepping up in class adds to the difficulty of the task.
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3Dark Tide Rising47/100
Dark Tide Rising is lightly raced with a solid recent record of two seconds and a win from his last three starts. He has already placed over course and distance here and has shown he handles good ground, recording one win from three runs and two placed efforts overall on the surface. Trainer Tom George is still seeking his first Hexham winner from eight runners, though the jockey has a 14% strike rate at the track from 22 rides. Usually held up with medium confidence in that assessment, he can be expected to come from off the pace. His placed effort over C&D last time suggests he is well suited by the track and trip.
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4Mhordart47/100
Mhordart has shown very little in three starts to date and remains hard to fancy on what is visible. The yard operates at a 7% strike rate here from a big sample of 324 runs. He steps up in class today while the trip poses a fresh question and the going remains unknown, with no runs on good ground to date. Danny McMenamin, who has a 16% strike rate at Hexham from 231 rides, takes the mount. Without stronger form on the page he will need to improve markedly to feature.
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5Happy Harrison46/100
Happy Harrison has shown very little in four runs to date and was well beaten on both starts this year. He has failed to place in four attempts at today's trip and remains with plenty to prove, while the yard has an 11% strike rate at Hexham from 28 runs.
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6Hourman44/100
Hourman is a useful performer who has shown consistent placed form at this track, finishing third and fourth from two runs here. He drops back in trip today having failed to land a blow in three previous attempts at this distance, while the trainer records a solid 14% strike rate at Hexham from 49 runs.
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7Circle of Steel44/100
Circle of Steel is lightly raced with just two runs and both modest efforts last year. The drop back in trip poses a fresh question while the small sample makes any firm conclusions risky, though the trainer has a 14% strike rate from 49 runs at Hexham.
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8Get On Son42/100
Get On Son was well beaten on his only start so far and remains lightly raced with very little to go on. The yard's modest 5% strike rate at Hexham from 21 runs offers no particular encouragement here, while trip and ground both remain unknown quantities on this small sample.
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9Rock Armour37/100
Rock Armour has shown modest form in recent starts with a pair of placed efforts from his last two runs. He drops back in trip today to a distance he has never tried which asks a fresh question, while his trainer operates at a 3% strike rate from 123 runs at Hexham and he has been competitive once in six starts on good ground without winning.
KTB verdict
Bogha Baiste is the KTB Selection. He possesses useful ability on his day and drops back to a trip at which he has been placed without winning, with the steadily-run pace shape expected to suit his held-up run-style. The cautionary note around the trainer's modest record at Hexham must be respected, yet on pure ability he sets the standard. Dark Tide Rising, with course-and-distance placing and a recent solid record, is the most obvious danger, while Argentum and Mhordart cannot be entirely dismissed if the race falls their way tactically.
KTB Selection Bogha Baiste
This is the narrative read of the 2:20 Hexham. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Hexham racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Hexham results & records page. How favourites, trainers, jockeys and the draw have fared here over the last five years is on the Hexham racecourse statistics page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has already placed over the course and distance?
Dark Tide Rising has placed over course and distance, finishing second on his one run here.
How many of the principals are held-up types?
Three of the four principals — Bogha Baiste, Argentum and Dark Tide Rising — are usually held up, while Mhordart has no run-style specified.
Which trainer has the highest strike rate at Hexham among those represented?
The joint-highest is 14% held by both Lucinda Russell & Michael Scudamore for Hourman and Circle of Steel, and the jockey figures show Sean Quinlan at 14% for Bogha Baiste.
Which horse is dropping back in trip having previously been placed at this distance?
Bogha Baiste is dropping back in trip having been placed without winning at this distance before.
How many runners in the field have no course form on record?
Six runners have no course form on record: Bogha Baiste, Argentum, Mhordart, Happy Harrison, Circle of Steel, Get On Son and Rock Armour.
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