2:47 Bath
This Class 5 handicap over the minimum trip at Bath features a field of ten with several course winners and consistent performers. The KTB Fit scores are tightly bunched at the top, headed by Moe's Legacy on 65, with Silver Wraith, Adalida, Safari Dream and Over Spiced all rated in the low-to-mid 50s. Conditions are good ground and the pace shape is strongly anticipated to be on the fast side, which adds an important layer to how the race may unfold.
How the race shapes up
With two or more habitual front-runners declared, including Silver Wraith, Safari Dream and Level Up, a strong pace is expected and the confidence in that assessment is high. This could lead to the leaders coming back to the field late on, playing into the hands of those with hold-up or midfield run-styles. The key question is whether the prominent runners can dictate terms or whether the race will collapse in the final furlong, allowing the closers to strike.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Moe's Legacy KTB Selection65/100
Moe's Legacy is a fair performer who has won four times at Bath from 17 runs and also has a solid record at this trip with seven wins from 31 starts. He showed his best form when winning at this track on his penultimate start but has been below that level on his latest two outings. The trainer has a strong record at Bath with a 14% strike rate and A/E 1.62 from seven runs while the jockey's strike rate here is more modest at 9% with an A/E of 0.69 from 307 rides. He typically settles in midfield and is drawn in stall six. His placed record on good ground reads one from seven and he carries an official rating of 75.
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2Silver Wraith61/100
Silver Wraith is a fair performer who has won three of his four starts at Bath and also holds a solid record at today's trip. He showed his best form when winning a similar race here last month before running no sort of race at Salisbury last time. The trainer's healthy strike-rate at the track stands at 15% with an A/E of 1.32 from 40 runs and this offers some encouragement despite the jockey's more modest course record of 11% with an A/E of 0.83 from 385 rides. He tends to make the running or race on the pace and is drawn in stall nine. His placed record on good ground is one from five and he carries an official rating of 75.
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3Adalida59/100
Adalida is a modest performer who has been consistent this year with a string of placed efforts and a win at this trip. Stall one is a plus on the sharp Bath straight and she handles good ground well enough with one win from five starts and three places. The trainer and jockey both have solid records here, the yard at 17% strike rate with A/E 1.11 from 88 runs and the rider at 12% with A/E 0.77 from 154 rides. She is usually held up and produces her effort late and this is her first run at the track. She carries an official rating of 71.
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4Safari Dream53/100
Safari Dream is a fair handicapper who has been placed three times from five runs at Bath without winning. He drops back to 5f today having won twice at the trip in the past, and his record on good ground reads a solid four wins from 16 starts with six places. The trainer has a 10% strike rate at the track from a large sample of 723 runs with an A/E of 0.86 while the 7lb claimer has limited experience here with an 8% strike rate and A/E 0.74 from 13 rides. He tends to make the running or race on the pace and is drawn in stall four. He carries an official rating of 75.
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5Over Spiced53/100
Over Spiced is a modest performer who has won once from five runs at Bath and also has five wins at this trip from 39 attempts. She is consistent enough of late with six placed efforts from the last eight starts including two seconds on this track. The trainer's modest 9% strike-rate here with A/E 0.89 from 316 runs is offset by the jockey's stronger 18% record from 249 rides with an A/E of 1.06. She is usually held up and produces her effort late and is dropping in class. Her record on good ground shows four wins from 16 starts with ten places and she carries an official rating of 68.
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6London Is Blue51/100
London Is Blue is a modest performer who has been placed a few times this year but has failed to win in 12 starts. He has run just once at Bath when finishing fourth and has shown no win or place form on good ground from two attempts. The trainer has a solid 18% strike rate here while the jockey is operating below par with a 9% record.
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7Carefree Dream50/100
Carefree Dream is a modest performer who has run creditably here without winning often, taking one from four starts at Bath. Recent form has been patchy with a best of fourth on his last two visits to this track, and he has never won on good ground despite placing three times from six starts. The trip suits as he has a win at 5f, though he is now on his 19th career start and looks exposed.
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8Level Up48/100
Level Up is a modest performer who has been a regular at this track and knows his way around it, finishing placed on his last two visits. He has won six times at this trip and has shown he can be competitive on good ground, though wins have been scarce of late. The yard has a modest record here and the inexperienced claimer is having her first ride at the course.
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9Emporess47/100
Emporess is a modest performer who has won once over this trip and once at this track from six runs. She has been out of form on her last two starts and is drawn wide today. The trainer has a solid record here while the jockey is striking at a good rate from a small sample.
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10An Outlaw's Grace46/100
An Outlaw's Grace is a modest performer with a recent form line of 472607 that shows bits of ability but no real consistency. He drops back to 5f for the first time today which asks a fresh question while his four runs on good ground have produced no win or place. The trainer and jockey both hold a 15% strike rate at Bath from decent-sized samples.
KTB verdict
Moe's Legacy is the KTB Selection. A fair performer with four Bath wins to his name and a strong record at the minimum trip, he showed his best form when successful here on his penultimate start and the trainer's record at the track adds to his appeal. The strong pace that is likely to unfold should suit his typical midfield run-style as the leaders potentially come back late. Main dangers are headed by Silver Wraith, who has won three of four starts at Bath and was successful in a similar race here last month, and Adalida, who is consistent, well drawn in stall one and benefits from a hold-up style in a race with plenty of early speed.
KTB Selection Moe's Legacy
Morning odds
Best available price per runner, captured 00:00 UTC, 19 Oct. These are a morning snapshot and will have moved — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Morning price | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| Moe's Legacy | 15/2 | William Hill |
| Silver Wraith | 7/2 | Bet365 |
| Adalida | 9/1 | Bet365 |
| Safari Dream | 9/1 | Bet365 |
| Over Spiced | 9/2 | Bet365 |
| London Is Blue | 10/1 | Bet365 |
| Carefree Dream | 7/1 | William Hill |
| Level Up | 17/2 | William Hill |
| Emporess | 30/1 | 7Bet |
| An Outlaw's Grace | 11/2 | Bet365 |
This is the narrative read of the 2:47 Bath. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Bath racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Bath results & records page. How favourites, trainers, jockeys and the draw have fared here over the last five years is on the Bath racecourse statistics page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is best suited by the expected strong pace?
Moe's Legacy, who typically settles in midfield, along with the hold-up performers Adalida, Over Spiced, London Is Blue, Carefree Dream, Emporess and An Outlaw's Grace.
How many course winners are in the field?
Moe's Legacy has won four times at Bath, Silver Wraith three times, Over Spiced once, Carefree Dream once and Emporess once.
Which trainer has the strongest strike rate at Bath in this race?
Robert Cowell with an 18% strike rate at Bath from 115 runs.
Who are the two most experienced Bath jockeys by number of rides?
Rob Hornby with 307 rides and Charlie Bishop with 385 rides at the track.
Which runners are dropping in class today?
Safari Dream and Over Spiced.
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About the A/E figures in this preview. They are the data supplier’s: the winners a trainer or jockey had, divided by the winners the starting prices implied, over the runs in that record. Above 1.0 means more wins than the prices suggested. It is not KTB’s fair A/E, which allows for the bookmakers’ margin and the favourite–longshot bias, and the two are not comparable.
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