2:54 Hamilton
This Class 5 nursery selling handicap over 6f at Hamilton on soft ground brings together a field of seven modest two-year-olds with limited overall quality. The KTB Fit ratings are tightly bunched at the top, headed by Fern Clyde on 55, with Dadawada, Or Another and Bonjour Belle close behind on 51, 50 and 44 respectively. Most of the runners are unproven on soft ground, several are dropping or stepping in class, and the race features a notable pace bias that could shape the outcome.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape is that of a lone leader with medium confidence, suggesting one clear front-runner will be allowed an uncontested lead that may prove difficult for closers to overcome. Or Another is the most likely to take up the running from draw 3, with Bonjour Belle prominent from stall 1 and the remainder mostly held up. The key question is whether anything can close effectively enough on the soft surface to reel in the leader, or whether the uncontested pace advantage will prove decisive.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Fern Clyde KTB Selection55/100
Fern Clyde is a modest performer who has been busy, winning once at this trip from six attempts but showing a rather patchy record overall. He ran respectably when fourth over course and distance on his only visit here, though he has never tackled soft ground. The Tim Easterby yard posts a 15% strike rate at Hamilton from 643 runs while David Allan is also on 15% from 483 rides at the track. Dropping in class from a recent form line of 134645, he is held up and produces his effort late with high confidence in that run-style. Trainer and jockey both have solid records at the venue that add to his claims in a race where his experience counts for plenty.
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2Dadawada51/100
Dadawada is a limited performer on the evidence of four runs and a recent form line of 5460. He showed little at this track on his only visit and has failed to place in his one attempt at today's trip. Stepping up in class, he is held up and usually produces his effort late with medium confidence attached to that assessment. The Christopher Kellett stable has a 12% strike rate at Hamilton from 43 runs, while Zak Wheatley is also on 12% from 26 rides here. With one run on soft yielding no win or place, he remains largely unproven on the surface and will need to improve markedly to feature.
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3Or Another50/100
Or Another is a modest performer who has been consistent enough without winning in six starts. He has shown some ability on this track with a third and fourth from two runs here but drops back from a mile to 6f for the first time in a while. The Katie Scott yard operates at an 8% strike rate from 132 runs at Hamilton while Jason Hart is on 12% from 449 rides at the track. Likely to make the running or race prominently from draw 3, he is unproven on soft ground. His recent form of 347349 suggests he can be thereabouts if the drop in trip suits and the uncontested lead materialises.
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4Bonjour Belle44/100
Bonjour Belle is a limited performer who has shown little in six starts and looks up against it from stall one in this company. The drop back to an untried 6f poses a fresh question. Brian Ellison's modest record at Hamilton of 8% from 210 runs is offset by the booking of Tom Kiely-Marshall, who boasts an 18% strike rate at the track from 22 rides. Usually racing handily on or close to the lead with high confidence in that run-style, he steps up in class having posted recent form figures of 570464. The combination of prominent racing and the strong jockey record at the venue gives him a chance to outperform his overall profile.
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5Stay On Tab42/100
Stay On Tab is a limited performer who has shown little spark in six runs this year and finished only fifth when he tried this track. Dropping in class and stepping up to 6f for the first time after shorter runs, he has two runs on soft with no win or place. Iain Jardine and Andrew Mullen both operate at a 12% strike rate here from large samples.
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6Lady Titania42/100
Lady Titania is a limited filly who has failed to land a blow in four starts so far. She has been beaten a long way each time and looks up against it again from stall four. The K R Burke yard posts a 16% strike rate at Hamilton from 468 runs and the 3 lb claimer Jack Nicholls is going well at the track with a 24% strike rate from 37 rides, but she remains largely unproven on soft.
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7North Coates37/100
North Coates is a limited performer who has shown little in three starts to date. He has twice failed to make an impression over today's trip and the small sample makes the soft ground an unknown. The Michael & David Easterby yard and James Sullivan both have solid but unspectacular records at Hamilton.
KTB verdict
Fern Clyde is the KTB Selection. He brings the highest Fit rating, has already shown respectable form over course and distance, and benefits from the trainer and jockey combination that both hold 15% strike rates at Hamilton from sizable samples. His held-up style may leave him with a bit to do given the uncontested lead on offer, yet his experience and the drop in class look significant in a modest field. The main dangers are likely to be Or Another if he can dictate from the front, and Bonjour Belle if the prominent run-style and strong jockey record at the venue allow him to exceed his limited form.
KTB Selection Fern Clyde
Morning odds
Best available price per runner, captured 00:00 UTC, 28 Sep. These are a morning snapshot and will have moved — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Morning price | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| Fern Clyde | 15/8 | Bet365 |
| Dadawada | 6/1 | 7Bet |
| Or Another | 13/2 | Bet365 |
| Bonjour Belle | 4/1 | 7Bet |
| Stay On Tab | 7/1 | Bet365 |
| Lady Titania | 9/1 | Bet365 |
| North Coates | 9/1 | 7Bet |
This is the narrative read of the 2:54 Hamilton. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Hamilton racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Hamilton results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is most likely to take the uncontested lead?
Or Another, whose front-running run-style and draw 3 position align with the lone leader pace shape.
How many of the runners are proven on soft ground?
Only Dadawada and Stay On Tab have run on soft, with neither recording a win or place.
Which jockey has the strongest strike rate at Hamilton in this race?
Jack Nicholls with a 24% strike rate from 37 rides.
Has Fern Clyde won at this trip before?
Yes, he has won once at this trip from six attempts.
Which principal is dropping back sharply in trip?
Or Another, who drops back from a mile to 6f for the first time in a while.
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