3:17 Navan
This 5f handicap at Navan brings together a field of nine modest performers on yielding ground in what looks a genuinely-run, fair test. The KTB Fit scores are tightly bunched at the top, with Irish Rumour heading the numbers on 72 while the next three sit between 52 and 57. Several runners have previous experience at the track and distance, yet the overall standard remains modest and the race is likely to be decided by who handles the pace and surface best.
How the race shapes up
With a front-runner in Ballysax Lil' Mick and multiple prominent types including Irish Rumour, Bay Of Supremacy, Gotta Catch'em All, She's Too Kool, Bad Boy Rizz and Gerrit's Gem, the pace shape is genuinely run. Several handy runners are expected to press the leader early, ensuring a proper test at this trip. The key question is whether the prominent group can dictate matters or if any of the hold-up performers, such as Gazelle d'Or and Happy Henry, can pick up the pieces late off a strong gallop.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Irish Rumour KTB Selection72/100
Irish Rumour is the KTB Selection. A modest performer, she boasts a solid record at Navan where she has won two of her five starts. She drops back to 5f, a trip at which she has won twice from eight attempts, and she has been placed on all three starts on yielding ground without yet winning on it. Recent form of 503155 has been patchy, yet she remains competitive at this level. The trainer has a 15% strike rate at Navan with an A/E of 1.58 from 27 runs, while the jockey boasts a 50% strike rate at the track from six rides with an A/E of 7.39. Usually racing prominently on or close to the lead, she is drawn in stall 3 and her course form gives her a clear edge here.
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2Gazelle d'Or57/100
Gazelle d'Or is a fair performer who has won over this trip and at this track, with a record of one win from two starts at Navan. She has been consistent in recent starts but showed a lesser effort last time out, with her form reading 224007. The yard and jockey both have modest records at the course, the trainer on 6% strike rate with an A/E of 0.82 from 80 runs and the jockey on 8% with an A/E of 1.04 from 59 rides. She is held up and produces her effort late, a run-style that could be well suited to the expected strong pace. However she is 0-5 on yielding ground, which adds a note of caution on these conditions.
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3Bay Of Supremacy54/100
Bay Of Supremacy is a modest performer who has won twice at this trip from seven attempts. He showed his best form when finishing third over course and distance on his penultimate start, though he has been below that level in two runs since and remains vulnerable to anything progressive. His recent form reads -31555 and he has been placed once from two starts on yielding ground without winning on it. The trainer and jockey both have established but below-average records at Navan, the trainer on 12% strike rate with an A/E of 0.9 from 261 runs and the jockey on 9% with an A/E of 0.76 from 277 rides. Usually racing prominently on or close to the lead with high confidence, he is drawn in stall 2 and his placed effort over C&D gives him a foothold in the race.
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4Happy Henry52/100
Happy Henry is a modest performer who has won once from five runs at Navan and also has a win at this trip from 16 attempts. His recent form of 159334 shows he can be competitive without necessarily threatening the very best on the day. He has placed once from one run on yielding ground and his course record adds further interest. The trainer strikes at 9% here from a big sample of 352 runs with an A/E of 0.83, while the jockey is on 7% with an A/E of 0.97 from 344 rides. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he is drawn in stall 1 and could be ideally placed if the race develops as expected with a strong pace up front.
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5Gotta Catch'em All52/100
Gotta Catch'em All is a modest performer who won once from seven runs at Navan and has placed three times from six starts on yielding ground. Recent form of 129356 shows flashes of ability but also plenty of ordinary runs, and he has failed to win in two attempts at this trip. The trainer has a 4% strike rate at Navan with an A/E of 0.54 from 523 runs while the jockey has a 5% strike rate with an A/E of 0.9 from 119 rides. Usually races handily on or close to the lead.
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6She's Too Kool52/100
She's Too Kool is a fair performer with solid recent form including a win and two placed efforts from her last six starts. She drops back to an untried 5f today having last run over 7½f, while the yielding ground should suit on the evidence of one placing from two tries. The trainer has a modest 3% strike rate from 59 runs at Navan and the 7lb claimer is yet to score from seven rides here. Usually races handily on or close to the lead.
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7Bad Boy Rizz49/100
Bad Boy Rizz is a modest performer who has won once from three runs at Navan and also has a win at this trip from seven attempts. He drops back to 5f today after his latest effort over 6f while connections at the track read modestly with the trainer on 7% from 162 runs and the jockey on 10% from 615 rides. Unproven on yielding ground having had no previous runs on it. Usually races handily on or close to the lead.
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8Gerrit's Gem48/100
Gerrit's Gem is a modest performer who has shown a bit of spark at this trip, placing on his only attempt over five furlongs. He has handled yielding ground in the past with a win and two places from four runs, though his sole visit to Navan resulted in a mid-division finish. The trainer's modest 7% strike rate at the track from a decent sample of 92 runs adds a note of caution. Usually races handily on or close to the lead.
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9Ballysax Lil' Mick43/100
Ballysax Lil' Mick is a limited performer who has been running to his level without winning for some time. He has shown bits of form at this trip and on yielding ground but his record here reads 0-4 with no placed efforts from four runs. The yard and jockey both have modest strike rates at Navan. Tends to make the running or race on the pace.
KTB verdict
Irish Rumour stands out as the KTB Selection. Her solid record at Navan, where she has won two of five starts, combined with placed form on yielding ground and a prominent run-style that should suit the expected pace, gives her the strongest claims. The drop back to 5f also looks positive given her two wins at the trip. Main dangers are Gazelle d'Or, who has won over C&D and could be suited by a strong gallop from the rear, and Bay Of Supremacy, who showed his best form when third over course and distance two starts back. Happy Henry is another who could feature if the race sets up for the hold-up runners.
KTB Selection Irish Rumour
Morning odds
Best available price per runner, captured 00:15 UTC, 21 Oct. These are a morning snapshot and will have moved — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Morning price | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| Irish Rumour | 4/1 | Bet365 |
| Gazelle d'Or | 13/2 | Bet365 |
| Happy Henry | 7/1 | Bet365 |
| Ballysax Lil' Mick | 22/1 | Unibet |
This is the narrative read of the 3:17 Navan. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Navan racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Navan results & records page. How favourites, trainers, jockeys and the draw have fared here over the last five years is on the Navan racecourse statistics page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has the best record at Navan?
Irish Rumour has won two of her five starts at Navan.
How many horses are likely to race prominently or on the lead?
Multiple horses are likely to race prominently or on the lead, including Ballysax Lil' Mick, Irish Rumour, Bay Of Supremacy, Gotta Catch'em All, She's Too Kool, Bad Boy Rizz and Gerrit's Gem.
Which horse is unproven on yielding ground?
Bad Boy Rizz has had no previous runs on yielding ground.
Who has the strongest jockey record at Navan among the principals?
Orla Tynan has a 50% strike rate at Navan with an A/E of 7.39 from six rides.
Which runner is stepping back to 5f after a run over further?
She's Too Kool drops back to an untried 5f today having last run over 7½f, while Bad Boy Rizz drops back to 5f after his latest effort over 6f.
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