3:35 Epsom
This Class 4 amateurs' Derby handicap over 1m4f at Epsom on good to soft ground brings together a field of 14 in which the KTB numbers highlight a clear top selection with strong course credentials. The race features several fair performers dropping in class alongside others stepping up, with recent form showing a mix of consistency and patchy results. Overall the KTB Fit Scores point to a competitive but not especially deep event where course experience and the ability to handle the trip look key.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape is a lone leader with high confidence, meaning Gordon Grey is expected to bowl along in front with little to no pressure. Most of the field are held-up types who will be looking to come from off the pace, which could leave them with plenty to do if the leader gets an easy time. The key question is whether any prominent racer can get close enough early or if the uncontested lead will prove decisive in the closing stages.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Gordon Grey KTB Selection65/100
Gordon Grey is a fair performer who has won three times at Epsom from five runs and also has a solid record at this trip with four wins from twelve starts. He has placed twice from three runs on good to soft ground but remains winless on it. The trainer holds an 11 percent strike rate here from 121 runs. A front-runner who tends to make the running or race on the pace with high confidence, he is perfectly placed to take advantage of the lone-leader shape and dictate matters from draw 7. Dropping in class adds to the appeal while the booking of Mr P W Mullins, who boasts a 40% strike rate at Epsom with an A/E of 1.81 from five rides, looks a significant plus.
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2Crooked Path59/100
Crooked Path is a modest performer who showed a bit more when winning at this trip last time out. Trainer James Owen has a strong 25% strike rate from his 12 runners at Epsom while Simon Walker is aboard. Only one run on good to soft so far and this is his first visit to the track. Stepping up in class now, he will be held up and produce his effort late with medium confidence from draw 8. The recent win offers encouragement but the combination of the step up, limited ground experience and the need to overcome the uncontested lead makes this a stiffer assignment.
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3Damascus Steel I59/100
Damascus Steel I is a fair performer who has already shown his liking for this track with a win from one visit. He has won at today's trip and has been competitive on good to soft ground without scoring, though he is drawn wide in stall 12. The yard's small sample at Epsom makes it hard to gauge their local strength. Dropping in class is a positive while the recent form of 356118 includes two wins. From a wide draw he will need to overcome the pace setup, and the 0% strike rate from two rides for jockey Mr Fletcher Yarham at the track adds a note of caution.
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4Sweet Reward58/100
Sweet Reward is a fair nine-year-old with a solid course record, having won one of his six starts at Epsom. He arrives in decent form after two wins earlier this season but was well beaten on his last two outings and now steps up markedly in trip to 1m4f, which asks a fresh question. The trainer has a 13% strike rate from 94 runs at this track while the jockey is yet to be assessed here. A held-up performer with medium confidence, he has a 1-9 record on good to soft with three places and will need the trip to bring about further improvement from draw 14.
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5Devil In The Sky56/100
Devil In The Sky is a fair performer who has been consistent rather than progressive, finishing no worse than fourth in his last four starts. He has won on good to soft and at today's trip, though he is 1-11 at the distance overall. The yard holds a solid 14% strike rate at Epsom from 56 runs while this is his first run at the track. With a neutral jockey score he will race from draw 13 and looks set to be held up. His consistency gives him a place in the mix but he will need to find a way to close the gap on an uncontested leader.
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6Yaa Min56/100
Yaa Min is a fair performer who has won twice at this trip from six attempts and showed consistent placed form on his last three starts. He has only tried good to soft once without placing and makes his first visit to Epsom from stall one.
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7Son Of Man53/100
Son Of Man is a fair performer who has won at today's trip and shown he handles good to soft ground with a win and a place from two runs. He has been below form on his last three starts and was well beaten on his only previous visit to Epsom. The trainer's modest strike rate at the track adds little encouragement from stall 11.
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8Epictetus52/100
Epictetus is a fair handicapper who has won once in three runs at Epsom and arrives in decent nick after a win and a third on his last two starts. He steps up to 1m4f for the first time today having only placed without winning at the trip before, while his record on good to soft is solid but winless from four attempts. Jamie Osborne's 6% strike rate at the track is modest, though Jack Loughnane's claim helps.
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9Great Bedwyn51/100
Great Bedwyn is a fair performer who has been consistent without winning lately and has placed at this trip on three occasions from 19 starts. He has run only once at Epsom and failed to place on good to soft ground in two attempts. The trainer holds a 12% strike rate here from 199 runs.
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10Seeking Charles50/100
Seeking Charles is a modest performer who has shown some consistency of late with placed efforts on his last two starts. He has form over today's trip but his only attempt on good to soft ground brought no reward. The trainer holds a 9% strike rate at Epsom from 69 runs while this is the horse's first visit to the track.
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11Divine Knight50/100
Divine Knight is a fair performer who has been consistent enough in recent starts without threatening to win. First run at Epsom and only one previous try at this trip both pose fresh questions while the yard's modest 10 percent strike rate here adds no confidence. Ground form is also limited with just a single run on good to soft.
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12Edward Sexton43/100
Edward Sexton is a modest performer who showed a bit more spark when winning a weaker race last time out. Drops back from 1m6f to a trip he has tried once without success while the good-to-soft ground should suit on the evidence of his sole placed effort. Trainer has a solid 14% strike rate at Epsom from 56 runs though this is the horse's first run here.
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13Dancing Tiger43/100
Dancing Tiger is a fair performer who has been consistent this year without winning since last summer. Goes well on good to soft ground with a win and a place from just two runs, and has placed once at today's trip. Trainer's modest record at Epsom is a concern on first run here.
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14Curran41/100
Curran is a modest performer who has been in and out of form this year with a recent win and a second from his last six starts. He has shown he handles good to soft ground and has placed at this trip though without winning. Trainer Rod Millman has a 9% strike rate from 135 runs at Epsom while jockey Mr Patrick Millman is making his first appearance at the track.
KTB verdict
Gordon Grey stands out as the KTB Selection. His three wins from five runs at Epsom, coupled with four victories from twelve starts at the trip, mark him down as the one to beat, especially as a front-runner likely to enjoy an uncontested lead in a race with this pace shape. Dropping in class and with Mr P W Mullins taking the ride, the six-year-old has the right profile to control the contest. The main dangers are Crooked Path, who showed more when winning last time, and Damascus Steel I, who has already won at the track, though both must overcome the pace disadvantage and, in the latter's case, a wide draw.
KTB Selection Gordon Grey
This is the narrative read of the 3:35 Epsom. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Epsom racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Epsom results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is most suited to the lone-leader pace shape?
Gordon Grey, as a front-runner with high confidence who tends to make the running or race on the pace.
How many wins has Gordon Grey recorded at Epsom?
Three wins from five runs.
What is James Owen's strike rate at Epsom?
25% strike rate from 12 runs with an A/E of 1.62.
Which horse has won at this trip and shown a liking for Epsom?
Damascus Steel I, who has won here from one visit and won at today's trip.
What is the trainer strike rate at Epsom for the yard of Sweet Reward?
13% strike rate from 94 runs with an A/E of 0.94.
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