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Jockey profile

Mr Lucas Murphy

41 rides in the last 5 seasons · 34 individual horses
As at 9 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily
Last ride 9 days ago
Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2025→)
from 1 Jan 2022
8–41
Wins / Runs
19.5%
Strike rate
n=41
18 (44%)
Placed
1.52
Fair A/E
n=40 · 1.26 incl. margin
+20.00
£1 level stake
n=41 at SP · +48.8%
£155k
Prize money (window)
Strike by season
23.5%

Riding patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 19.5% baseline
First ride on the horse · first captured pairing
14.7%−4.8
n=34 · A/E 1.25 · £1 +4.38
Last-time-out winners · previous run was a win
60%+40.5
n=5 · A/E 1.60 · £1 +4.62
Fresh horses · 61+ days off
25%+5.5
n=12 · A/E 1.76 · £1 +0.62
When favourite
50%
n=4 · A/E 1.15 · £1 +0.50
Claiming rides · riding with a claim
17.5%−2.0
n=40 · A/E 1.41 · £1 +18.12
Big fields · 14+ runners
50%+30.5
n=4 · A/E 13.02 · £1 +32.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 19.5% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline
On first rides for the horse 14.7% vs 19.5% · n=34
When claiming 17.5% vs 19.5% · n=40
This filter uses derived form angles computed for 61.1% of the archive so far (as at 9 Nov 2026); the sample will grow as sequencing completes.
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1
Flat 19 3 15.8% +4.88
Chase 13 1 7.7% −9.00
Hurdle 8 4 50% +25.12
NH Flat 1 0 0% −1.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1
Good 14 3 21.4% +1.00
Soft 7 1 14.3% +12.00
Standard (AW) 7 1 14.3% −4.12
Good to Soft 6 0 0% −6.00
Good to Firm 4 2 50% +14.62
Heavy 3 1 33.3% +2.50

Courses

CourseRWSR£1
Ascot 5 2 40% +16.00
Wolverhampton (AW) 4 0 0% −4.00
Ayr 3 2 66.7% +20.00
Southwell (AW) 2 1 50% +0.88
Ludlow 2 0 0% −2.00
Leicester 2 1 50% +3.50
Kelso 2 1 50% −0.38
Cheltenham 2 0 0% −2.00
Newton Abbot 2 1 50% +5.00
Uttoxeter 2 0 0% −2.00
Stratford 1 0 0% −1.00
Newbury 1 0 0% −1.00
Market Rasen 1 0 0% −1.00
Nottingham 1 0 0% −1.00
Sandown 1 0 0% −1.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1
Class 5 14 3 21.4% +2.50
Class 4 11 2 18.2% +7.62
Class 6 8 1 12.5% −5.12
Class 2 4 0 0% −4.00
Class 3 3 1 33.3% +16.00
Class 1 1 1 100% +3.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite 5 2 40% 1.15 −0.50
2nd–3rd fav 13 3 23.1% 1.39 +0.50
4th–6th fav 12 1 8.3% 1.05 −5.00
7th+ in betting 11 2 18.2% 4.80 +25.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses ridden

same window as header · most-raced first
HorseRWPlLast ran
Who Wants Me (IRE) 4 2 3 2 Oct 26
Aeros Luck (IRE) 2 0 0 31 Oct 26
Tuppence (FR) 2 2 2 4 Oct 26
Missed Tee (IRE) 2 0 2 19 Mar 26
Major Major (IRE) 2 0 1 18 Sep 25
Viroflay (FR) 1 1 1 31 Oct 26
Jet To Vegas (IRE) 1 0 1 31 Oct 26
Traprain Law (FR) 1 0 1 23 Oct 26
Al Gasparo (FR) 1 0 0 23 Oct 26
Mariah's Dream (GB) 1 0 1 16 Oct 26
Bits Ballou (GB) 1 1 1 28 Sep 26
Golspie (IRE) 1 1 1 17 Sep 26
All 34 horses ridden in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

Current form

significance-gated

Last 14 days

Small sample
1 from 3
Only 3 rides in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.

By month

strike by month, 5 seasons
JFMAMJJASOND
500025002505027··
Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Riding for

same window · biggest samples first
TrainerRWSR£1
Richard Hannon 6 0 0% −6.00
Patrick Morris 4 1 25% −1.12
Iain Jardine 4 2 50% +17.00
Paul Nicholls 4 1 25% +0.00
Lucinda Russell & Michael Scudamore 4 2 50% +16.62
Miss V Collins 3 0 0% −3.00
Fergal O'Brien 3 1 33.3% +2.50
Sandy Thomson 2 0 0% −2.00
David Pipe 1 0 0% −1.00
Barry Brennan 1 0 0% −1.00
Bernard Llewellyn 1 0 0% −1.00
Nigel & Willy Twiston-Davies 1 1 100% +6.00
Muted rows are under 30 rides.

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2025→
8
Archived wins
£155k
Prize money
2026
Best season · 8 wins
Viroflay (FR) — Sodexo Live! Regal Encore Handicap Steeple Chase (Premier Handicap) (GBB Race) Ascot · Oct 2026 · Class 1
£56,950
Who Wants Me (IRE) — Autumn Racing Weekend Amateur Jockeys' Handicap Stakes (For Male Amateur Riders) Ascot · Oct 2026 · Class 4
£12,418
Tuppence (FR) — Slater Menswear Handicap Hurdle Ayr · Apr 2026 · Class 3
£9,506
Notable horses
Who Wants Me (IRE) Tuppence (FR) Queen Of Steel (GB) Golspie (IRE) Bits Ballou (GB) Viroflay (FR)

Sires of the horses ridden

progeny record · win % by ground and trip
Starspangledbanner (AUS) 50% · 2–4
Progeny have won 11.1% of 7,226 runs since 2014 (664 horses). Strongest at trips under 6f (all codes): 14.6% from 1,199.
Fame And Glory (GB) 0% · 0–2
Progeny have won 12.5% of 6,214 runs since 2016 (504 horses).
Iffraaj (GB) 0% · 0–2
Progeny have won 10.5% of 13,995 runs since 2010 (1,093 horses).
Ivanhowe (GER) 100% · 2–2
Progeny have won 8.8% of 363 runs since 2021 (85 horses).
My Dream Boat (IRE) 0% · 0–2
Progeny have won 15% of 113 runs since 2021 (16 horses).
Air Chief Marshal (IRE) 100% · 1–1
Progeny have won 8.7% of 1,985 runs since 2014 (190 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 5.2% from 672. Strongest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 14.6% from 267. Weakest over 1m – 1m1f (all codes): 5.3% from 565.
Top line: the rider's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 9 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

all 41 archived runs · newest first

Every one of Mr Lucas Murphy's 41 archived rides, from 31 July 2025 to 31 October 2026, newest first — 8 winners among them.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP
31 Oct 26 Ascot Viroflay (FR)T: Paul Nicholls Sodexo Live! Regal Encore Handicap Steeple Chase (Premier Handicap) (GBB Race)Class 1 · 24f · Good · 10 ran 1st 3/1
31 Oct 26 Ascot Aeros Luck (IRE)T: Sandy Thomson Sodexo Live! Handicap Steeple Chase (gbb Race)Class 2 · 17f · Good · 11 ran 10th 11/2
31 Oct 26 Ascot Jet To Vegas (IRE)T: Lucinda Russell & Michael Scudamore Ascot Underwriting Novices' Limited Handicap Steeple Chase (gbb Race)Class 3 · 19f · Good · 5 ran 2nd 13/8F
23 Oct 26 Cheltenham Traprain Law (FR)T: Lucinda Russell & Michael Scudamore Squareintheair.com Handicap Steeple Chase (gbb Race)Class 2 · 16f · Good To Soft · 8 ran 2nd 9/2
23 Oct 26 Cheltenham Al Gasparo (FR)T: Kayley Woollacott William Hill Epic Boosts Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 3 · 20f · Good To Soft · 11 ran 10th 28/1
16 Oct 26 Uttoxeter Mariah's Dream (GB)T: Fergal O'Brien QuinnBet Mares' National Hunt Flat Race (Conditional And Amateur Jockeys' Race) (Category 1 Elimination) (GBB Race)Class 5 · 16f · Good · 7 ran 2nd 20/1
04 Oct 26 Kelso Aeros Luck (IRE)T: Sandy Thomson Nspcc School Service Handicap Steeple Chase (Registered As The Simply Ned) (GBB Race)Class 2 · 17f · Good To Firm · 4 ran 3rd 9/4J
04 Oct 26 Kelso Tuppence (FR)T: Lucinda Russell & Michael Scudamore Justin & Susan Greig Novices' Hurdle Race (Go North Night Nurse Series Qualifier) (GBB Race)Class 4 · 16f · Good To Firm · 3 ran 1st 8/13F
02 Oct 26 Ascot Who Wants Me (IRE)T: Iain Jardine Autumn Racing Weekend Amateur Jockeys' Handicap Stakes (For Male Amateur Riders)Class 4 · 7f · Good To Firm · 18 ran 1st 16/1
28 Sep 26 Newton Abbot Bits Ballou (GB)T: Nigel & Willy Twiston-Davies Par Inn Bulpin Cup Amateur Jockeys' Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 5 · 26.5f · Good · 7 ran 1st 6/1
17 Sep 26 Southwell (AW) Golspie (IRE)T: Patrick Morris Download The At The Races App Novice Amateur Jockeys' Handicap Stakes (Riders Who Have Ridden 3 Winners Or Fewer At Start Of Season)Class 6 · 11f · Standard · 9 ran 1st 15/8F
31 Aug 26 Epsom Great Bedwyn (GB)T: Richard Hannon Betfred 'nifty 50' Amateurs' Derby Handicap Stakes (for Gentleman Amateur Jockeys) (gbbplus Race)Class 4 · 12f · Good To Soft · 14 ran 7th 20/1
07 Aug 26 Haydock Havachoc (GB)T: Patrick Morris Zyn In The Moment Amateur Jockeys' Handicap StakesClass 5 · 14f · Good · 7 ran 7th 33/1
23 Jul 26 Newbury One Cool Dreamer (IRE)T: Robert Stephens Frasers Plus Designer Outlet Swindon Amateur Jockeys' Handicap StakesClass 5 · 10f · Good To Firm · 8 ran 6th 9/1
21 Jul 26 Wolverhampton (AW) Shopaholic (GB)T: Jack Jones Get Raceday Ready Amateur Jockeys' Handicap StakesClass 6 · 14f · Standard · 11 ran 2nd 9/1
05 Jul 26 Ayr Who Wants Me (IRE)T: Iain Jardine Hadley's 'Hello My Wee China' Amateur Jockeys' HandicapClass 5 · 5f · Good · 7 ran 1st 3/1
28 Jun 26 Uttoxeter Grand Clermont (FR)T: David Pipe bet365 Summer Cup Handicap Chase (GBB Race)Class 2 · 24f · Good · 13 ran 4th 5/1
23 Jun 26 Newton Abbot Roadshow (IRE)T: Paul Nicholls Proper Job Amateur Jockeys' Handicap HurdleClass 4 · 17f · Good · 7 ran 6th 6/1
12 Jun 26 Goodwood Talis Evolvere (IRE)T: Richard Hannon Download The Track Radio App Amateur Jockeys' HandicapClass 4 · 8f · Soft · 8 ran 2nd 11/4
03 Jun 26 Warwick Northern Air (IRE)T: D J Jeffreys Stockton House Mares' Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 16f · Good · 6 ran 6th 12/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

KTB’s figures

the forward record · since 5 Oct 2026

KTB’s figures on this rider’s mounts since 14 Oct 2026: the KTB Selection in 2 runs (won 1) · top-rated on KTB Rating in 1 run (won 0, 1 did not run) · to 31 Oct 2026.

Each pick was a KTB figure’s choice before the off — the published KTB Selection, the top-rated horse on KTB Rating, the fastest on KTB Speed — settled against the result the next morning and never worked out again; “did not run” is counted apart. GB and Irish races only. A record of weeks so far: read it as a count, not a verdict.

Quick answers

What is Mr Lucas Murphy's strike rate?
Mr Lucas Murphy has won 8 of 41 rides since 2022, a strike rate of 19.5% (as at 9 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Is Mr Lucas Murphy in form?
Too few rides in the last 14 days to read — 3 rides, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is Mr Lucas Murphy's Fair A/E?
1.52, from 40 rides with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%". Three sample sizes are reported and never blended: runs (n), the ROI basis (n at SP), and the fair-A/E basis (n with a computed fair probability).

Strike rate is wins over all runs (n). ROI is £1 level stakes at SP over runs with a parseable price (n at SP). Fair A/E is wins over margin-stripped market expectation, over runs with a computed fair probability (n fair). The three Ns can legitimately differ and are always shown. Figures as at 9 November 2026, computed from our own results archive (2005 onwards; aggregates from 2008).