3:00 Epsom
This Class 3 handicap over 7f at Epsom on good to soft ground features a compact field of eight three- and four-year-olds plus an older handicapper. The KTB Fit ratings are tightly bunched at the top, with Naval Light heading the list on 69, followed closely by Morte Point, Aurora Majesty and Kisskodi all in the low-to-mid 60s. Conditions look suitable for several runners given their placed efforts or wins on similar ground, while the race is notable for the yard and jockey records at the track that range from modest to strongly positive.
How the race shapes up
A strong pace is anticipated with at least two confirmed front-runners in Morte Point and Velvet Rhythm likely to take the field along at a solid clip. Several hold-up performers, headed by Naval Light, Aurora Majesty, Kisskodi and Rhoscolyn, will be positioned towards the rear early. The key question is whether the pace collapses in the closing stages, which would play into the hands of those coming from off the pace in what is traditionally a stiff finish at Epsom.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Naval Light KTB Selection69/100
Naval Light is a fair performer who has shown useful improvement this year with two wins from his last four starts. He has already won on good to soft and at today's trip so the conditions look suitable while the yard's solid record at Epsom adds some confidence. First run here is neutral given his overall profile. The three-year-old is held up, usually producing his effort late, which could be ideal if the strong pace does collapse. K. R. Burke and Sam James team up with a 16% strike rate together, the jockey boasting a fine 20% strike rate at Epsom from limited rides.
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2Morte Point63/100
Morte Point is a useful performer who has won four times at this trip from 12 attempts and arrives in reasonable form having landed a similar race earlier this season. Placed once from two starts on good to soft ground so the conditions should be fine though he has never run at Epsom before. Muir and Grassick have a solid 15% strike rate here from 20 runners while Havlin is equally effective at the track. He tends to make the running or race prominently, which will see him to the fore in what is expected to be a strong pace. Dropping in class looks a positive.
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3Aurora Majesty62/100
Aurora Majesty is a fair performer who has won over this trip and at this track. Recent form has been patchy with a best of third on her latest start, though she has placed on good to soft ground before. Trainer Archie Watson has a solid 12% strike rate at Epsom from 49 runs while jockey Pierre-Louis Jamin is unproven here. Usually held up and producing her effort late, she should be suited if the race develops as anticipated. Her course record of one win from three starts is another positive.
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4Kisskodi61/100
Kisskodi is a fair sort who has won two of his three starts at Epsom and also has a solid record at this trip. He has won on good to soft ground and the yard's 20% strike rate at the track adds confidence. Recent form has been patchy though and he needs to bounce back from a poor last run. Held up with a late effort, his style aligns with the expected race shape. Harry Eustace and George Wood combine on a horse that clearly handles the venue.
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5Do Bronxs61/100
Do Bronxs is a fair performer who has shown consistent placed form at this trip without winning. He has handled good to soft ground in the past and arrives in reasonable nick judged on recent efforts. Trainer David Loughnane has a strong 29% strike rate at Epsom while Hector Crouch is making his first ride at the track. Usually held up, he steps up in class from stall 7.
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6New Vega55/100
New Vega is a useful performer who has already won over today's trip and showed useful form when second on his penultimate start. The drop back from a stiff 1m last time should suit and the yard's good record here adds some confidence. Lightly-raced with only four runs on the board so far, he is held up and remains unproven on good to soft.
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7Rhoscolyn53/100
Rhoscolyn is a fair handicapper who has won at both this track and trip. He has been out of form for most of this year with a string of poor efforts and looks vulnerable from stall 1 on his return to Epsom. The yard's modest strike rate here adds to the negatives on good to soft ground where his record is ordinary. Usually held up.
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8Velvet Rhythm40/100
Velvet Rhythm is a fair 3-year-old with a solid recent record that includes two wins this year. He has won four times at today's trip from ten attempts and the form figures show consistent placed efforts in stronger company. The trainer's modest 4% strike-rate at Epsom is a concern and the colt remains unproven on good to soft ground. Tends to make the running.
KTB verdict
Naval Light is the KTB Selection. A fair performer who has shown useful improvement this year with two wins from his last four starts, he has already won on good to soft and at today's trip so the conditions look suitable. The yard's solid record at Epsom adds confidence and his hold-up style should be favoured if the strong pace collapses late. Main dangers are Morte Point, who arrives in reasonable form having won a similar race earlier this season and will set the pace, and the course winners Aurora Majesty and Kisskodi, both of whom have shown they handle Epsom.
KTB Selection Naval Light
This is the narrative read of the 3:00 Epsom. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Epsom racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Epsom results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horses are likely to set the strong pace?
Morte Point and Velvet Rhythm both tend to make the running or race on the pace.
Which runners are suited by a strong pace that could collapse late?
Naval Light, Aurora Majesty, Kisskodi and Rhoscolyn are all usually held up and produce their effort late.
Which trainer has the strongest strike rate at Epsom in this field?
David Loughnane has a 29% strike rate at Epsom from 14 runs.
Which horse has the best recent course record at Epsom?
Kisskodi has won two of his three starts at Epsom.
How many of the principals have course form at Epsom?
Two of the four principals have won at Epsom: Aurora Majesty once from three starts and Kisskodi twice from three starts.
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