Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
Yard patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 10.5% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
8.3%−2.2
n=12 · A/E 1.02 · £1 −7.50
New recruits · first run for the yard
8.3%−2.2
n=12 · A/E 1.05 · £1 −7.50
Debutants · first career start
0%−10.5
n=4 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −4.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
100%+89.5
n=1 · A/E 5.09 · £1 +3.50
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
33.3%+22.8
n=3 · A/E 2.16 · £1 +1.50
When favourite
8.3%
n=12 · A/E 0.27 · £1 −9.80
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
8.3%−2.2
n=12 · A/E 0.51 · £1 −7.50
Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 10.5% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.
Notable angles
vs their own baseline
Over 1m2f – 1m4f16.7% vs 10.5% · n=30
In Flat races10.5% vs 10.5% · n=57 · A/E 0.70
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.
Record by conditions
same window as header
Going
GoingRWSR£1
Good to Firm22418.2%−8.30
Good1516.7%−2.00
Standard (AW)1000%−10.00
Good to Soft600%−6.00
Soft4125%−0.25
Courses
CourseRWSR£1
Brighton600%−6.00
Newmarket600%−6.00
Epsom6116.7%−1.50
Yarmouth6116.7%−3.80
Wolverhampton (AW)500%−5.00
Nottingham3133.3%+1.50
York300%−3.00
Leicester200%−2.00
Goodwood2150%+11.00
Ascot200%−2.00
Kempton (AW)200%−2.00
Newmarket100%−1.00
Lingfield (AW)100%−1.00
Newbury100%−1.00
Newcastle (AW)100%−1.00
Class
ClassRWSR£1
Class 424312.5%−4.00
Class 620315%−9.55
Class 51000%−10.00
Class 2200%−2.00
Class 3100%−1.00
Market position
In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite13215.4%0.51−7.05
2nd–3rd fav14321.4%1.07−2.50
4th–6th fav1915.3%0.67−6.00
7th+ in betting1100%0.00−11.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.
Distance
DistanceRWSR£1
1m2f – 1m4f30516.7%−2.05
6f – 7f1616.3%−13.50
1m – 1m1f1000%−10.00
1m5f – 2m100%−1.00
Handicaps
HandicapsRWSR£1
Handicaps4337%−21.00
Field size
Field sizeRWSR£1
8-10 runners2328.7%−14.75
11-13 runners1417.1%−11.50
5-7 runners14321.4%+5.70
14-16 runners300%−3.00
17+ runners300%−3.00
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
All 16 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next
Of the 16 horses listed, 12 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from Denis Quinn (6) and John Ryan (2); 4 had their first archived run for this yard.
None of them has a later run for another yard in our archive.
Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.
Current form
significance-gated
Last 14 days
Small sample
0 from 7
Only 7 runners in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.
When the yard fires
strike by month, 5 seasons
JFMAMJJASOND
····0933900··
A flat yard: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.
Mojito Madness (IRE) — Racing TV Free Trial EBF Restricted Maiden Stakes (For Horses In Band D) (EBF Restricted Race Qualifier) (GBB Race) Redcar · Jul 2026 · Class 4
Progeny have won 12.7% of 2,747 runs since 2008 (261 horses). Weakest over 1m – 1m1f (all codes): 8.5% from 331.
Definite Article (GB)20% · 1–5
Progeny have won 10.5% of 5,617 runs since 2008 (527 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 5.1% from 138. Weakest over 1m2f – 1m4f (all codes): 4.3% from 211.
Progeny have won 10.4% of 23,534 runs since 2008 (1,665 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 14.3% from 147. Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 7.1% from 252.
Progeny have won 12.1% of 6,307 runs since 2008 (704 horses). Weakest on Good to Soft going: 9% from 612. Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 7.6% from 185.
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 20 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.
The record
latest 50 of 57 · newest first
The latest 50 of 57 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 28 May 2026 to 15 October 2026.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
What is Gihan Arnolda's strike rate?
Gihan Arnolda has won 6 of 57 runners since 2022, a strike rate of 10.5% (as at 20 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Is Gihan Arnolda in form?
Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 7 runners, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is Gihan Arnolda's Fair A/E?
0.70, from 57 runners with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Gihan Arnolda·SR 10.5%·A/E 0.70
KTB
Cookies on Kickthebookies
We use essential cookies to run the site and remember your betslip. No advertising or tracking cookies, ever. By continuing to use this site, you agree. Cookie policy