4:05 Newcastle (AW)
This Class 6 handicap division at Newcastle over 1m2f42y on standard going features a field of ten modest performers, several with course form but few with strong recent winning credentials. The KTB Fit Scores range from 61 down to 28, underlining a race where solid recent form and course familiarity carry significant weight. With the KTB numbers highlighting one clear standout in terms of current momentum, the contest looks set to revolve around whether that horse can overcome his run style against an uncontested leader.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape is a lone leader with high confidence, pointing to one horse making the running with little pressure expected from the rest of the field. Most principals and field runners are held-up types who produce their effort late, meaning the race is likely to be run at a steady gallop early before the closers are asked to come from off the pace. This uncontested lead could prove difficult for those racing in rear to overcome, especially over the extended 1m2f trip. The key question is whether any of the held-up performers can generate enough momentum in the straight to reel in the leader before the line.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Koko Blue KTB Selection61/100
Koko Blue is a modest performer who arrives in solid form. He won a similar event here last time out and brings a strong recent record with three wins from his last five starts. Successful on this surface and at today's trip, he also boasts a course win from a single visit. The stable's 9% strike rate at Newcastle from 34 runs is modest yet is supported by a decent volume of runners, while the 1/8 trainer-jockey combination carries a 13% strike rate. His usual held-up run style sees him produce his effort late, which could be tested by the uncontested leader, though the jockey's 67% strike rate at the track from three rides is a notable positive despite limited experience.
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2Dinah Myte56/100
Dinah Myte is a limited performer who has won once here from a single visit and also holds a win at today's trip. Dropping back from 1m6f looks likely to suit, while her form figures of 236617 reflect a degree of consistency even if she has lacked real punch at this level. She has scored on standard ground from seven attempts with one placing. The trainer posts a 9% strike rate at Newcastle from 32 runs with an A/E of 1.28, and the jockey operates at 9% from a large sample of 190 rides with an A/E of 0.83. Like most of her rivals she is usually held up and produces her effort late.
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3We've Got This53/100
We've Got This is a limited performer who has been on the go for a long time without adding to his winning tally. He has shown the odd bit of ability on this track, including a fourth on his sole visit, but his recent efforts have been modest. Stepping up in trip for the first time today adds an unknown element to his profile. The trainer has a 10% strike rate at Newcastle from 357 runs with an A/E of 1.01, while the jockey is on 11% from 1283 rides with an A/E of 0.97. Usually held up, his run style carries medium confidence and he has yet to win or place in three runs on standard going.
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4Gemini Man52/100
Gemini Man is a limited performer who has been running to form without winning of late, finishing in the first four in four of his last six starts. He has won once over this trip and once at this track from seven visits, and has also scored twice on standard going from 13 attempts with seven placings. The eight-year-old is usually held up and produces his effort late with high confidence. Both trainer and jockey have modest 8% strike rates at Newcastle from large samples, with A/E figures of 0.82 and 0.9 respectively.
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5Daring Leader48/100
Daring Leader is a limited performer who has won once from five starts at this track and also has a win over today's trip on his record. His recent form of 381874 is patchy and he steps back up in distance after his last run over a mile. The trainer's 6% strike rate at Newcastle from 18 runs is modest with an A/E of 0.68, though this is offset by the jockey's solid long-term record of 12% from 1583 rides with an A/E of 0.87. He has scored once on standard ground from ten attempts with two placings and is usually held up with medium confidence in that run style.
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6Sovereign Bright48/100
Sovereign Bright is a limited horse who has shown only modest form across 13 starts without winning. He has placed on standard ground, finished a respectable third here on his sole visit to Newcastle, and remains in search of his first success at this trip. The yard and jockey both have solid records at the track.
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7Distinction47/100
Distinction is a limited class performer who has been on the go for a long time and shown very little spark this year. Four runs at this track have produced no better than fifth and the trainer and jockey both operate at a modest 9% strike rate here. He has won at today's trip but his two placed efforts on standard ground from 19 starts underline that he is not particularly well treated on current form.
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8Jetpack Jimmy42/100
Jetpack Jimmy is a modest performer who has shown very little in three starts to date, finishing tenth on his only visit to this track. The yard's poor record here adds little confidence, while the jockey's own modest strike-rate at Newcastle offers no offset. Stepping up to this new trip is an unknown that could help or hinder and he is dropping in class.
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9Millbuie40/100
Millbuie is a limited performer who has been placed on six occasions without winning from 32 starts. He has shown his best form at this track with a second and two thirds from ten runs here and has also placed twice at today's trip. The yard and jockey both have modest strike rates at Newcastle and he tends to make the running or race on the pace.
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10Rajawail28/100
Rajawail is a limited performer who has been out of form for some time with a string of poor efforts. He has shown the odd bit of ability at this track but has failed to win or place in five runs here and is also zero from seven at today's trip. The yard's poor record at Newcastle adds to the negatives.
KTB verdict
Koko Blue stands out as the KTB Selection. A modest performer in solid form after winning a similar race here last time, he has three wins from his last five starts and has already proved himself on this surface, at the trip, and at the track. His held-up style will need to master the lone leader, yet the jockey's strong record at Newcastle and the overall profile give him the clearest chance. The main dangers are likely to come from Dinah Myte, who drops back in trip after a course win, and Gemini Man, who continues to run to form without winning of late, while We've Got This and Daring Leader cannot be entirely ruled out on their course records.
KTB Selection Koko Blue
Morning odds
Best available price per runner, captured 00:01 UTC, 2 Oct. These are a morning snapshot and will have moved — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Morning price | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| Koko Blue | 15/8 | Bet365 |
| Dinah Myte | 8/1 | William Hill |
| We've Got This | 15/2 | Bet365 |
| Gemini Man | 7/2 | William Hill |
| Daring Leader | 12/1 | Bet365 |
| Sovereign Bright | 14/1 | William Hill |
| Distinction | 11/1 | 7Bet |
| Jetpack Jimmy | 9/1 | William Hill |
| Millbuie | 9/1 | William Hill |
| Rajawail | 100/1 | William Hill |
This is the narrative read of the 4:05 Newcastle (AW). For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Newcastle (AW) racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Newcastle (AW) results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Why does the pace shape favour the leader here?
The pace shape is a lone leader with high confidence, meaning one clear front-runner with little to pressure it and likely an uncontested lead that can be hard for closers to peg back.
How many of the principals usually race held up?
All five principals are described as held up and usually produce their effort late, with confidence levels ranging from high to medium.
Which horse has the best recent winning record according to the KTB material?
Koko Blue has three wins from his last five starts and arrives off a win in a similar race here last time.
Which runner steps up in trip for the first time today?
We've Got This is stepping up in trip for the first time today.
What is the course record of the KTB Selection at Newcastle?
Koko Blue has won here from one visit.
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