What is John Mackie's strike rate?

John Mackie has won 48 of 595 runners since 2022, a strike rate of 8.1% (as at 20 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does John Mackie do best at?

Newcastle (AW) by strike rate: 4 wins from 37 runners (10.8%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Who rides most for John Mackie?

P J McDonald, with 55 runners since 2022 — 9% of the total. That pairing has won 7 (12.7%).

Is John Mackie in form?

Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 4 runners, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.

What is John Mackie's Fair A/E?

0.88, from 594 runners with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Trainer profile

John Mackie

595 runners in the last 5 seasons · 54 individual horses

As at 20 Oct 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Last runner yesterday

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)

from 1 Jan 2022

48–595

Wins / Runs

8.1%

Strike rate

n=595

152 (26%)

Placed

0.88

Fair A/E

n=594 · 0.77 incl. margin

−220.97

£1 level stake

n=595 at SP · −37.1%

£455k

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

8.6%

KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 120 runners a season, winning with 8% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 0.88).

Deterministic profile computed from 595 archived runs (last 5 seasons) · updated 20 Oct 2026

KTB at a glance Fires Dec–Feb 37.1% when favourite P J McDonald: 12.7% from 55 Sends off the favourite in 6% of races

The read

Horses returning fresh after 61+ days have been a poor signal at 2.5% (n=80, Fair A/E 0.44). The market has consistently overbet runners with a claiming rider up: 4.9% strike, Fair A/E 0.53 and −83.72 to a £1 stake over 102 runners — those runners underperform what the price implies. P J McDonald rides 9% of the entries and edges the yard's average (12.7% vs 8.1%, A/E 1.17) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. The record reads poorly off a 61-180-day break — 1.7% over 59 runners, 6.4pts below the baseline. The market has consistently overbet the yard on Good to Soft going: Fair A/E 0.29 across 50 runners (2% strike, −42.50 to a £1 stake) — runners there underperform what the price implies. The stable star of the record: Custard The Dragon (GB) — 10 wins from 72 runs for the yard. Seasonally, the yard fires Dec–Feb.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 8.1% baseline

Fresh · 61+ days off

2.5%−5.6

n=80 · A/E 0.44 · £1 −71.34

New recruits · first run for the yard

4.8%−3.3

n=21 · A/E 0.67 · £1 −18.12

Debutants · first career start

10.5%+2.4

n=19 · A/E 4.58 · £1 +77.00

First-time headgear · true-first definition

8.3%+0.2

n=12 · A/E 1.64 · £1 −8.25

Headgear returns · back on after a bare run

0%−8.1

n=12 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −12.00

When favourite

37.1%

n=35 · A/E 1.30 · £1 +3.92

Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle

4.9%−3.2

n=102 · A/E 0.53 · £1 −83.72

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 8.1% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

With Connor Beasley 25.8% vs 8.1% · n=31

On last-time-out winners 17.6% vs 8.1% · n=51

With C&D winners 15.3% vs 8.1% · n=124

Off a 61-180-day break 1.7% vs 8.1% · n=59

On Good to Soft going 2% vs 8.1% · n=50

With P J McDonald 12.7% vs 8.1% · n=55

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1

Flat 470 39 8.3% −223.60

Hurdle 81 7 8.6% −49.37

Chase 25 0 0% −25.00

NH Flat 19 2 10.5% +77.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Standard (AW) 336 29 8.6% −138.85

Good 127 11 8.7% −57.87

Soft 53 5 9.4% +39.25

Good to Soft 50 1 2% −42.50

Good to Firm 20 2 10% −12.00

Heavy 8 0 0% −8.00

Firm 1 0 0% −1.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Wolverhampton (AW) 140 9 6.4% −89.13

Southwell (AW) 138 12 8.7% −64.96

Newcastle (AW) 37 4 10.8% −11.59

Doncaster 31 2 6.5% −22.25

Uttoxeter 23 1 4.3% −18.50

Southwell 19 3 15.8% −8.00

Carlisle 14 0 0% −14.00

Pontefract 13 2 15.4% −0.50

Thirsk 13 0 0% −13.00

Beverley 13 3 23.1% +6.25

Leicester 11 2 18.2% −4.75

Nottingham 10 0 0% −10.00

Catterick 9 0 0% −9.00

Kempton (AW) 9 1 11.1% +0.50

Chelmsford City (AW) 9 2 22.2% +3.33

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 6 275 25 9.1% −111.64

Class 5 197 15 7.6% −22.29

Class 4 78 5 6.4% −52.67

Class 3 32 3 9.4% −21.37

Class 2 12 0 0% −12.00

Class 1 1 0 0% −1.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 45 18 40% 1.49 +12.63

2nd–3rd fav 114 15 13.2% 0.80 −37.60

4th–6th fav 188 12 6.4% 0.73 −53.00

7th+ in betting 248 3 1.2% 0.40 −143.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Distinction (IRE)from K R Burke 72 8 17 19 Oct 26

Bomb Squad (IRE)from J S Moore 59 8 33 21 Sep 26

Swinging London (IRE)from Olly Murphy 42 5 15 18 May 26

Available Angel (GB) 35 1 8 15 Mar 25

Fistral Beach (IRE)from George Scott 32 5 13 14 Jul 26

Vivency (USA)from Brett Johnson 26 1 5 2 Apr 25

Presenting Pete (IRE)from Alan King 24 3 7 12 May 25

Hurricane Ali (IRE)then James Moffatt 21 4 10 2 Dec 23

Late Claim (FR) 20 1 7 28 Sep 26

Dazy Mazy (GB) 20 2 5 15 Sep 25

Packetofbiscuits (GB)from Adrian Nicholls 18 2 5 9 Oct 26

Sold Out (GB) 15 1 1 26 Mar 26

All 54 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 54 horses listed, 28 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from Ralph Beckett (2); 26 had their first archived run for this yard.

6 have since run for another yard; 48 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

Current form

significance-gated

Last 14 days

Small sample

0 from 4

Only 4 runners in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.

When the yard fires

strike by month, 5 seasons

JFMAMJJASOND

913878126944015

A flat yard: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first

Go-to riderP J McDonald

9% of all rides
12.7% SR · A/E 1.17

RiderRWSR£1

P J McDonald 55 7 12.7% +3.38

Connor Beasley 31 8 25.8% +14.66

Peter Kavanagh 30 2 6.7% −24.50

Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2005→

286

Archived wins

£2.04m

Prize money

2021

Best season · 21 wins

In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.

Fire Jet (IRE) — TBA Centenary Fillies' Handicap Newmarket · Aug 2017 · Class 3

£16,173

Fire Jet (IRE) — TBA Centenary Fillies' Handicap Nottingham · Oct 2017 · Class 3

£15,563

Gidam Gidam (IRE) — Bluesquare.com Handicap Chase Doncaster · Feb 2010 · Class 2

£12,524

Notable horses

Custard The Dragon (GB) Saint Thomas (IRE) Hallstatt (IRE) Distinction (IRE) Bomb Squad (IRE) Arizona John (IRE)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Kodiac (GB) 10.8% · 8–74

Progeny have won 10.4% of 23,534 runs since 2008 (1,665 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 14.3% from 147. Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 7.1% from 252.

Lethal Force (IRE) 13.6% · 8–59

Progeny have won 10.7% of 4,263 runs since 2008 (268 horses). Weakest on Soft going: 6.2% from 356.

Massaat (IRE) 8.5% · 4–47

Progeny have won 7.8% of 1,200 runs since 2008 (124 horses). Weakest on Good to Soft going: 4.5% from 112. Weakest over 1m2f – 1m4f (all codes): 3.8% from 131.

Dark Angel (IRE) 11.9% · 5–42

Progeny have won 11.3% of 21,876 runs since 2008 (1,594 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 15% from 107.

Heeraat (IRE) 2.9% · 1–35

Progeny have won 8% of 2,994 runs since 2008 (194 horses).

New Bay (GB) 15.6% · 5–32

Progeny have won 14.3% of 3,939 runs since 2008 (420 horses). Weakest at trips under 6f (all codes): 10.8% from 102.

Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 20 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 3,174 · newest first

The latest 50 of 3,174 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 3 January 2005 to 19 October 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

19 Oct 26 Southwell (AW) Distinction (IRE)J: Darragh Keenan bettingsites.co.uk Handicap StakesClass 6 · 11f · Standard · 9 ran 8th 28/1

19 Oct 26 Southwell (AW) Sunshine And Roses (GB)J: Darragh Keenan bettingsites.co.uk New Betting Sites Handicap StakesClass 6 · 8f · Standard · 14 ran 10th 25/1

10 Oct 26 Southwell (AW) Cy Twombly (IRE)J: Callum Hutchinson Carlsberg Danish Pilsner 1847 Handicap StakesClass 6 · 8f · Standard · 12 ran 7th 12/1

09 Oct 26 York Packetofbiscuits (GB)J: Finlay Bassett Pj Staffing Group Apprentice Handicap StakesClass 4 · 7f · Good To Soft · 20 ran 13th 40/1

02 Oct 26 Newcastle (AW) Distinction (IRE)J: Connor Beasley Henry Malone 1926 Handicap Stakes (Div I)Class 6 · 10f · Standard · 10 ran 6th 9/1

01 Oct 26 Newcastle (AW) Society Kiss (GB)J: Clifford Lee Download The Raceday Ready App Fillies' Handicap StakesClass 4 · 6f · Standard · 9 ran 3rd 25/1

29 Sep 26 Wolverhampton (AW) Cy Twombly (IRE)J: Clifford Lee Sky Sports Racing Sky 415 Handicap Stakes (Div I)Class 6 · 8.5f · Standard · 8 ran 3rd 10/1

29 Sep 26 Wolverhampton (AW) Saeculamation (IRE)J: James Sullivan Race & Rest - Wolverhampton Holiday Inn Handicap StakesClass 6 · 6f · Standard · 11 ran 5th 66/1

28 Sep 26 Wolverhampton (AW) Cobalt Comet (GB)J: Lewis Edmunds Free Digital Racecard At Raceday-ready.com Handicap StakesClass 5 · 9.5f · Standard · 11 ran 2nd 28/1

28 Sep 26 Wolverhampton (AW) Thomas Tallis (GB)J: Tyler Heard Free Race Replays On Attheraces.com Handicap StakesClass 6 · 8.5f · Standard · 12 ran 10th 18/1

28 Sep 26 Wolverhampton (AW) Late Claim (FR)J: Finlay Bassett Sky Sports Racing Sky 415 Handicap StakesClass 6 · 14f · Standard · 10 ran 3rd 14/1

28 Sep 26 Wolverhampton (AW) Khachaturian (GB)J: Tyler Heard Download The At The Races App Novice Stakes (gbb Race)Class 4 · 8.5f · Standard · 11 ran 11th 300/1

26 Sep 26 Southwell (AW) Packetofbiscuits (GB)J: Callum Hutchinson Festive Fixtures At Southwell Racecourse Handicap StakesClass 5 · 7f · Standard · 12 ran 6th 9/2

24 Sep 26 Southwell (AW) Cy Twombly (IRE)J: Callum Hutchinson Weekend Winners On At The Races Handicap StakesClass 6 · 8f · Standard · 13 ran 8th 33/1

21 Sep 26 Wolverhampton (AW) Bomb Squad (IRE)J: Finlay Bassett Follow @attheraces On Instagram Handicap StakesClass 6 · 6f · Standard · 10 ran 6th 40/1

21 Sep 26 Wolverhampton (AW) Late Claim (FR)J: Finlay Bassett Book Now At Wolverhampton-racecourse.co.uk Handicap StakesClass 6 · 12f · Standard · 9 ran 6th 50/1

18 Sep 26 Ayr Society Kiss (GB)J: Joanna Mason Ladbrokes Ayr Bronze Cup Handicap StakesClass 2 · 6f · Soft · 24 ran 23rd 50/1

17 Sep 26 Yarmouth Packetofbiscuits (GB)J: Tom Marquand LA Continental Cafe Of Great Yarmouth Handicap StakesClass 5 · 8f · Good · 14 ran 2nd 28/1

17 Sep 26 Pontefract Distinction (IRE)J: Finlay Bassett Pontefract Racecourse Racing Together Combatting Loneliness Handicap StakesClass 6 · 10f · Good · 11 ran 9th 12/1

15 Sep 26 Wolverhampton (AW) Cy Twombly (IRE)J: Lewis Edmunds Book Hotel And Conferencing At Wolverhampton Handicap StakesClass 6 · 8.5f · Standard · 12 ran 8th 66/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is John Mackie's strike rate?: John Mackie has won 48 of 595 runners since 2022, a strike rate of 8.1% (as at 20 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does John Mackie do best at?: Newcastle (AW) by strike rate: 4 wins from 37 runners (10.8%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for John Mackie?: P J McDonald, with 55 runners since 2022 — 9% of the total. That pairing has won 7 (12.7%).
Is John Mackie in form?: Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 4 runners, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is John Mackie's Fair A/E?: 0.88, from 594 runners with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.