4:40 Newcastle (AW)
This Class 6 handicap division at Newcastle over 1m2f42y on standard ground brings together a field of ten limited performers, most of whom have shown little spark of late. The KTB Fit Scores are tightly bunched at the top with no standout standout, though the numbers point to a race that could be shaped by an uncontested lead. Overall the contest looks modest in quality, with several runners dropping in class or stepping up in trip offering hope they can improve on recent form.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape is a lone leader with high confidence, meaning one horse is expected to secure an uncontested lead that could prove difficult for the closers to reel in late on. Bergamo Gold is the clear front-runner and should be allowed to dictate terms from the outset given his high-confidence tendency to make the running. The remainder of the field, dominated by held-up types including Hill O Rue, Haltonwood, Sandret and He's Our Cracker, will be positioned towards the rear and asked to produce their efforts from off the pace. The key question is whether any of the closers possess the necessary finishing kick on this surface to overcome the clear leader's advantage.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Bergamo Gold KTB Selection57/100
Bergamo Gold is a limited performer on balance with a recent string of modest efforts. He has shown ability at this trip though, winning once from six attempts, and has handled standard ground well enough with two wins from ten starts. The yard has a solid 15% strike rate at the track from a big sample. From draw 10 the three-year-old is expected to make the running, a run-style he tends to adopt with high confidence. Trainer Charlie Johnston and jockey Jack Callan combine with an 11/63 record that has produced an A/E of 1.21 and a healthy level-stakes profit of +£47.96. With no previous course form on record, his ability to handle the surface and trip makes him the KTB selection in a race where an uncontested lead could be decisive.
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2Hill O Rue53/100
Hill O Rue is a limited performer who has struggled for consistency this year with a string of modest efforts. He has won over today's trip but showed little on his only previous start on standard ground. Trainer Kevin Ryan has a solid 14% strike rate at Newcastle from a big sample. Usually held up and producing his effort late with high confidence, the four-year-old will need the race to fall right given the expected uncontested lead up front. From draw 4 he lines up with an OR of 56 and recent form figures of -97056. The combination of Kevin Ryan and Tom Eaves has an A/E of 0.89 from 2091 runs together.
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3Haltonwood53/100
Haltonwood is a limited horse who has shown only modest form in five starts. He has twice run respectably without threatening at this track and the trip looks no better than an unknown at this stage. Trainer Ivan Furtado's solid 10% strike-rate here from a large sample offers some encouragement. Usually held up with medium confidence, the three-year-old will be among those trying to close on the expected lone leader. With an OR of 59 and recent form of 54943 he has course placings of fourth and fifth to his name but remains without a win. Jockey Jason Hart brings an 11% strike rate at the venue.
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4Sandret50/100
Sandret is a modest performer with a solid record at this track including two wins from 17 runs. He has dropped to a winnable mark but his recent form is ordinary and he steps up markedly in trip today having last run over 7f. The trainer's modest 6% strike-rate here from 149 runs adds a note of caution. A held-up performer with high confidence, the ten-year-old will be aiming to come from off the pace in a race where the leader may not come back. With an OR of 60 and form figures of -68876 he has one win from 17 starts on standard going. P J McDonald takes the ride for Sam England.
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5He's Our Cracker50/100
He's Our Cracker is a limited performer who has shown little spark in two runs at this track and looks no better than modest on recent form. He drops back from 1m4f to a trip he has won at before, which is at least a positive, while the yard's modest 9% strike rate here from 76 runs offers no particular encouragement. Daniel Tudhope takes the ride on ground he has handled okay. Usually held up with high confidence from draw 1, the four-year-old is dropping in class having recorded form figures of 150684. He has one win from six starts on standard going and two placed efforts at the track without winning.
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6Tiberio Force46/100
Tiberio Force is a limited performer who has been in and out of form this year. He has shown some spark at this track with a second and third from seven runs plus three placed efforts on standard ground, and he has won three times at today's trip. The trainer's modest 4% strike-rate at Newcastle suggests the yard is struggling here.
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7Kameel46/100
Kameel is a limited performer who has been consistent rather than progressive, with recent form showing a string of mid-pack finishes. He has won twice at this track from seven runs and holds a solid record on standard going, though he steps up in trip today having only placed without winning at this distance. The trainer's modest 10% strike-rate at Newcastle from a large sample adds a note of caution.
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8Typeface44/100
Typeface is a limited performer who has been placed without winning in four runs at this track, including two seconds last season. He has shown similar consistency on standard ground and at this trip, though he has never managed to get his head in front. The yard's modest 10% strike-rate here from a big sample adds a note of caution.
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9Mystic Wave36/100
Mystic Wave is a limited performer who has shown little in three runs to date, finishing 7th, 8th and 9th without ever threatening. He has already been tried twice at Newcastle without placing and now steps up markedly in trip wearing headgear for the first time. Trainer's modest 8% strike rate at the track from a large sample offers no particular encouragement here.
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10The Floors Munky29/100
The Floors Munky is a limited performer who has shown very little in ten runs and looks out of his depth even at this modest level. Four runs here have produced no better than sixth and he is 0-4 on the surface. Trainer has a modest 9% strike-rate at the track while the step up to 1m2f is an unknown.
KTB verdict
Bergamo Gold is the KTB selection. He is a limited performer with modest recent efforts but has shown ability at this trip and has handled standard ground well enough with two wins from ten starts on it. The yard's solid 15% strike rate at Newcastle from a large sample is another positive, and his front-running style with high confidence should allow him to dictate in a race with a lone-leader pace shape that can be hard for closers to overcome. Main dangers include Sandret, who has a solid record at the track with two wins from 17 runs despite the step up in trip, and Hill O Rue, who has won over the distance though he showed little on his sole previous standard-ground start. Haltonwood and He's Our Cracker are others who could feature if the leader falters.
KTB Selection Bergamo Gold
Morning odds
Best available price per runner, captured 00:01 UTC, 2 Oct. These are a morning snapshot and will have moved — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Morning price | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| Bergamo Gold | 11/2 | Bet365 |
| Hill O Rue | 14/1 | Bet365 |
| Haltonwood | 9/2 | Ladbrokes |
| Sandret | 15/2 | 7Bet |
| He's Our Cracker | 15/2 | Bet365 |
| Tiberio Force | 13/2 | 7Bet |
| Kameel | 11/4 | Bet365 |
| Typeface | 6/1 | Bet365 |
| Mystic Wave | 70/1 | 7Bet |
| The Floors Munky | 70/1 | 7Bet |
This is the narrative read of the 4:40 Newcastle (AW). For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Newcastle (AW) racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Newcastle (AW) results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is expected to take the uncontested lead?
Bergamo Gold, who tends to make the running or race on the pace with high confidence.
What is the main positive for the KTB selection Bergamo Gold?
He has shown ability at this trip with one win from six attempts and has handled standard ground with two wins from ten starts, while the yard has a 15% strike rate at Newcastle from 309 runs.
Why does Sandret step up markedly in trip?
Having last run over 7f, he now contests 1m2f42y despite a solid course record of two wins from 17 starts.
Which runners are dropping in class?
He's Our Cracker and Mystic Wave.
What is the course record for Kameel at Newcastle?
Two wins from seven runs.
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