4:50 Hexham
This Class 5 Northumbria Leisure Handicap Steeple Chase at Hexham serves as a qualifier for the Go North Red Rum Series over an extended three miles on good ground. A field of nine runners lines up, with the KTB Fit ratings highlighting a competitive but not overly deep contest in which four principals stand out on recent consistency and course relevance. Overall the numbers point to a race where proven stamina at the trip and the ability to handle a strong pace will be key.
How the race shapes up
A strong pace is anticipated with at least two confirmed front-runners present and several others who race prominently or on the pace. Killybegs Jet Lady and Lights Are Green are both inclined to make the running or race up with the pace, while Luminaries tends to race handily. This shape is likely to test those up front and could set things up for the hold-up performers, several of whom are among the principals, with the key question being which of the patient runners can time their effort best as the pace potentially collapses late.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Super Citizen KTB Selection65/100
Super Citizen is a useful performer who has shown consistent form this year with a string of placed efforts. He has won at this trip though his record on good ground is modest and he has failed to place in two runs at Hexham. The 12-year-old is usually held up and produces his effort late, a run-style that could be well suited to the expected strong pace. Lucinda Hughes has a 33% strike rate at Hexham from a small sample with an A/E of 2.18, though the trainer and jockey combination shows 3/26 (12%) with an A/E of 0.86. Brian Hughes brings a 16% strike rate at the track from 808 rides with an A/E of 0.84. His recent form reads 4323-4 and he carries an official rating of 98.
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2Defence Witness56/100
Defence Witness is a useful performer who has shown a fair level of ability on several occasions. He has run twice at Hexham without placing and is 0-7 on good ground, though the drop back to 3m could suit after his last run over further. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he should be well placed if the strong pace materialises as expected. Trainer Sam England has a 17% strike rate at Hexham from 127 runs with an A/E of 1.11 while Jonathan England is unproven at the track despite a 15% strike rate from 164 rides and an A/E of 1. The pair show 172/1313 (13%) with an A/E of 0.90 overall. His recent form is 1272-6 from an official rating of 94.
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3Stay Hopeful56/100
Stay Hopeful is a fair sort who won over this trip on his only attempt and has already shown he handles Hexham by scoring here on his sole visit. He arrives in decent form having won at Worcester last time and has placed three times from six runs on good ground. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he will be looking to come from off the pace in a race where that could be advantageous. The yard shows a 33% strike rate at Hexham from three runs with an A/E of 0.92 while Sean Bowen has a 30% strike rate at the track from 40 rides with an A/E of 0.97; together they are 2/9 (22%). His recent form reads 467312 and he is rated 81.
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4Killybegs Jet Lady55/100
Killybegs Jet Lady is a useful mare who has shown consistent ability around here without winning, finishing second twice and placing on four of eight runs at Hexham. She steps up in trip today having already placed without winning at this distance, and her record on good ground is respectable with a win and six places from eleven starts. She tends to make the running or race on the pace, which will put her right in the firing line given the strong pace expected. Lucinda Russell and Michael Scudamore hold a 17% strike rate at the track from 53 runs with an A/E of 0.83 while Derek Fox has a 12% strike rate from 336 rides with an A/E of 0.82; the combination is 26/226 (12%) with an A/E of 0.66. Her recent form is -21P04 from an official rating of 94.
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5Lights Are Green53/100
Lights Are Green is a fair performer who has won at both this track and trip. He has been largely out of form this season with a recent string of pulled-up efforts mixed with the occasional placed run. The yard has a solid 10% strike-rate at Hexham from a large sample and the horse acts on good ground. He tends to make the running or race on the pace.
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6Burning It Up48/100
Burning It Up is a useful performer who has shown some ability in recent starts but arrives here on the back of an unseated and with a patchy recent record. The step up to 3m is an unknown at this stage while his record on good ground is modest from limited tries. Trainer has a solid 12% strike rate at Hexham from a big sample. Usually held up.
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7Luminaries45/100
Luminaries is a fair handicapper who has won two of his last three starts and looks well suited by this trip having won twice from seven attempts at around 3m. He acts on good ground with four wins from 17 starts and has solid recent form including a second at this track last time. The yard has a 10% strike rate at Hexham from 48 runs while the jockey has limited experience here. Usually races handily.
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8Croagh Patrick40/100
Croagh Patrick is a modest 11-year-old who has won once in 10 runs at Hexham. He has shown only minor placed form at this trip from 13 attempts and his record on good ground is 1-23 with six places. The trainer operates at a 7% strike rate from 92 runs here. Usually held up.
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9C'Mon So39/100
C'Mon So is a fair performer who has run three times here without placing and looks exposed after nine runs in the last year. He has shown some competitiveness on good ground and at this trip but has failed to win in either sphere. The yard's solid 17% strike-rate at Hexham offers some encouragement. Usually held up.
KTB verdict
Super Citizen is the KTB Selection. A useful performer with a string of placed efforts this year, he has the right run-style for the anticipated strong pace and the trainer's small-sample record at Hexham is positive. The selection's ability to produce his effort late should be an asset if the race collapses as expected. Main dangers are Defence Witness, who could benefit from the drop back to 3m, and Stay Hopeful, who has already won over the trip and at this track. Killybegs Jet Lady cannot be dismissed either given her course form and front-running style.
KTB Selection Super Citizen
This is the narrative read of the 4:50 Hexham. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Hexham racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Hexham results & records page. How favourites, trainers, jockeys and the draw have fared here over the last five years is on the Hexham racecourse statistics page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horses are likely to set the strong pace?
Killybegs Jet Lady and Lights Are Green both tend to make the running or race on the pace, while Luminaries usually races handily.
Why could hold-up horses be favoured here?
The pace shape indicates a strong pace is likely with two or more habitual front-runners, which could collapse late and favour hold-up horses.
How many wins has Stay Hopeful recorded at Hexham?
Stay Hopeful has won here on his sole visit, recording 1 win from 1 run at the track.
What is Lucinda Hughes's strike rate at Hexham?
Lucinda Hughes has a 33% strike rate at Hexham with an A/E of 2.18 from 3 runs.
Which of the principals has never won on good ground?
Defence Witness is 0-7 on good ground.
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