4:50 Roscommon
This Irish EBF Median Sires Series Race over 7f94y at Roscommon on good ground brings together nine two-year-olds in a steadily-run, tactical contest. The KTB Fit Scores are tightly bunched at the top, with Ruler's Control heading the numbers on 56, followed closely by Joga Bonito on 55, Full Volume on 52 and The Long Haul on 48. Overall the KTB assessments point to a race where proven ability at or around the trip, course experience and yard form at Roscommon will carry significant weight.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape lacks a leader and confidence is medium, so the race is expected to be steadily-run with no one obviously wanting the lead. Most of the principals are held-up types who produce their effort late, which should make being handy or well-positioned from the draw a distinct advantage in what looks a tactical affair. The key question is whether any horse can quicken effectively off a slow gallop or whether those with the ability to race prominently can steal an advantage.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Ruler's Control KTB Selection56/100
Ruler's Control is a useful colt who showed that level when winning on debut before finishing a solid fourth in a stronger race at the Curragh. He was below form last time though and has yet to prove himself at this trip. The yard has a strong record here but the jockey's strike rate is modest. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he will need to time his run well in a steadily-run affair. The trainer's 20% strike rate at Roscommon from 286 runs is a positive, though the jockey is only 5% from 80 rides at the track. With form figures of 145 and an official rating that places him competitively, he is the KTB Selection.
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2Joga Bonito55/100
Joga Bonito has shown useful ability with a recent win at this trip and placed efforts either side of that. He was only fourth when he ran here last time though that was still a solid effort given his inexperience. Trainer Twomey has a strong 42% strike rate at Roscommon while jockey Lee posts a more modest 11%. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he should be suited by the steadily-run pace shape. His form figures of 4231 underline consistent promise and he has placed once from two runs on good ground. The combination of yard form at the venue and a recent success at today's distance makes him a major player.
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3Full Volume52/100
Full Volume is a useful 2yo who has shown solid form in four starts, winning on good ground and finishing a close second at this track last time. Dropping back from 1m to 7f today asks a fresh question while the draw in stall 1 should help. The Harrington yard has a 13% strike rate here from a big sample and Foley is 11% from 342 rides at the course. Usually held up with high confidence, he will look to come from off the pace in what is likely to be a tactical race. With form figures of 6126 and one win from three runs on good going he enters the equation, particularly if the drop in trip proves within his compass.
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4The Long Haul48/100
The Long Haul is lightly raced with only two runs in the book so far so this is all very much unknown territory. The yard's modest 4% strike rate at Roscommon from a big sample is another negative while the jockey has a solid record here. Stepping up to 7f for the first time asks a fresh question of a horse with very limited data overall. Usually held up though with limited evidence, he will need to improve markedly on his form figures of 50. The combination of inexperience and the trainer's modest course record makes this a stiff task on what remains very much an unknown.
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5Cudawudashuda48/100
Cudawudashuda showed some promise when sixth on debut over a mile. Dropping back to 7f today asks a fresh question of a horse with only one run in the book. Both trainer and jockey have solid 17% strike rates at Roscommon from large samples.
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6South Dakota47/100
South Dakota is a useful performer who has shown consistent form, finishing in the first four on all four starts including two placed efforts over 6f. Steps up to 7f for the first time today which asks a fresh question, while the small sample on this going leaves suitability unknown. Trainer has a 13% strike rate from 294 runs at Roscommon while jockey is on 8% from 331 rides here.
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7Panhandle46/100
Panhandle has been well beaten on both starts so far and remains a maiden with only two runs on the board. The trainer has a solid 12% strike rate at Roscommon from a large sample while the jockey matches that figure from even more rides here. Stepping up to 7f for the first time asks a fresh question of a horse whose ability is still hard to gauge on this small amount of evidence.
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8Lars Soldier44/100
Lars Soldier is a fair 2-year-old with solid recent form that includes a win and several placed efforts. He showed little at this track on his only visit and has failed to trouble the judge in his one run at today's trip. The Mulvany yard and Joyce both have modest strike rates here.
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9Wunderschon42/100
Wunderschon showed very little on debut when finishing seventh of eight. The yard has a solid 13% strike rate at Roscommon from a big sample but the 5 lb claimer is 0-16 at the track. With only one run on the board and the going sample too small to judge, this remains very much an unknown.
KTB verdict
Ruler's Control is the KTB Selection. A useful colt who showed that level when winning on debut before a solid fourth in a stronger race at the Curragh, he represents a yard with a strong record at Roscommon even if the jockey's strike rate here is modest. He was below form last time but remains open to improvement and his held-up style should be suited by the steadily-run pace. The main dangers are Joga Bonito, who brings a recent win at this trip and strong yard form at the track, and Full Volume, who was a close second here last time and benefits from the inside draw. The Long Haul adds further depth but carries significant unknowns.
KTB Selection Ruler's Control
Morning odds
Best available price per runner, captured 00:00 UTC, 31 Aug. These are a morning snapshot and will have moved — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Morning price | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| Ruler's Control | 2/1 | Bet365 |
| Joga Bonito | 7/2 | Bet365 |
| Full Volume | 9/2 | Bet365 |
| The Long Haul | 100/1 | BetTom |
| Cudawudashuda | 25/1 | BetTom |
| South Dakota | 15/8 | Bet Victor |
| Panhandle | 66/1 | Bet Victor |
| Lars Soldier | 22/1 | Bet365 |
| Wunderschon | 50/1 | Bet Victor |
This is the narrative read of the 4:50 Roscommon. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Roscommon racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Roscommon results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is dropping back from a mile to 7f having shown promise on debut?
Cudawudashuda showed some promise when sixth on debut over a mile and is dropping back to 7f today.
How many of the principals are typically held up in their run style?
All four principals — Ruler's Control, Joga Bonito, Full Volume and The Long Haul — are usually held up.
Which trainer has the strongest strike rate at Roscommon among those represented?
P Twomey has a 42% strike rate at Roscommon from 26 runs.
Which horse is stepping up to 7f for the first time after consistent placed form over shorter?
South Dakota has finished in the first four on all four starts including two placed efforts over 6f and steps up to 7f for the first time.
What advantage does Full Volume hold from the draw in this steadily-run race?
Full Volume is drawn in stall 1, which should help in a tactical affair where being handy pays.
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