6:30 Newcastle (AW)
A Class 6 handicap over 1m at Newcastle on standard ground brings together ten three-year-olds, most of them modest performers with little between them on official ratings. The KTB Fit scores are tightly bunched at the top, with Fickle McSelfish heading the numbers on 56, followed closely by Dalamara and Sailor's Return on 54. Recent form is mixed across the field, several hold-up types are present, and the strong pace anticipated could create late opportunities for those racing off the speed.
How the race shapes up
With two or more habitual front-runners in the line-up the pace shape is expected to be strong, confidence high. Exotic Baby and Maynora both tend to make the running or race prominently, which should ensure a solid gallop that may stretch the field and set up a late collapse. Most of the principals, including the selection, are held-up performers who will be looking to come from off the pace. The key question is whether the leaders go hard enough early to play into the hands of the closers in the straight.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Fickle McSelfish KTB Selection56/100
Fickle McSelfish is a modest performer who has already won once at this track from five runs and is 1-6 on the surface. Recent form has been mixed with a win and a second sandwiched between some lesser efforts, while he has also placed without winning at today's trip. The trainer's modest 7% strike-rate at Newcastle is offset by the jockey's solid 12% record from a big sample. Usually held up, he produces his effort late and should be suited by the strong pace likely here. From draw 4 he can be ridden to come from off the speed in a race where the leaders may fold late.
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2Dalamara54/100
Dalamara is a modest performer who has won once here from three starts and is 1-4 on standard ground. Dropping back to 1m looks a fair move after his last run over 1m2f and he has won at today's trip. The trainer has a solid 14% strike rate at the track while the jockey's 8% record is more modest. Like the selection he is usually held up and produces his effort late, so the anticipated strong pace should suit. From a low draw he is well placed to track the leaders before delivering his challenge.
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3Sailor's Return54/100
Sailor's Return is a modest performer who has shown a bit more spark since the spring and landed a similar race over this trip on standard ground at Wolverhampton last month. He comes here on the back of a respectable fourth at Southwell and has the yard and jockey's solid Newcastle figures in his favour. The trainer posts an 11% strike rate at the track while the jockey's 19% record stands out. Usually held up, he will be another looking to benefit if the strong pace collapses late. First run at this track leaves that side of things unknown.
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4Alkumatic Jo Jo52/100
Alkumatic Jo Jo is a modest performer who has been placed on this track and over today's trip without winning. He has shown bits of ability on standard ground but remains winless after 13 starts and recent form has been ordinary. The trainer holds a solid record here while the jockey is operating above the course average. Run-style is held up with high confidence, so he will be towards the rear early in a race with a strong pace expected. Placed on his only previous visit to Newcastle, he knows the venue.
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5Exotic Baby51/100
Exotic Baby is a modest performer who has struggled this year with a string of ordinary efforts. She steps up to a trip she has won at before but has looked limited on standard ground in four runs and now makes her first appearance at Newcastle. The trainer and jockey both have established but below-average records at the track. She tends to make the running or race on the pace, which could see her set or share a strong gallop in a race where that pace may collapse late. Dropping in class is a positive.
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6Dacres Cross50/100
Dacres Cross is a modest performer who has been largely out of form this year with a string of modest efforts. He steps up in trip for the first time today having looked stretched at 7f last time, while this is also his first run at Newcastle. The trainer has a solid 14% strike rate here from a big sample but the jockey is operating below that level with a 7% record from over a thousand rides. Usually held up with high confidence he should appreciate a strong pace.
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7Maynora50/100
Maynora is a limited performer who has been a regular in this grade without winning for some time. She has shown some ability on this track, finishing placed once from three runs, and has also been competitive on standard going. Stepping up to 1m for the first time since an unsuccessful attempt earlier in her career asks a fresh question of her. She tends to make the running or race on the pace and could be involved in ensuring the strong gallop.
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8Truly Special47/100
Truly Special is a limited performer who has shown better on her last two starts, winning a couple of minor handicaps. She steps up in trip today having been placed once at this distance without winning, while her record on the surface is modest from three runs. The trainer has a 7% strike-rate here from a big sample and the jockey is operating close to expectations at the track. Usually held up with high confidence she will be another looking to pounce late.
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9Baldosa41/100
Baldosa is a limited performer who has been placed a few times at this track without winning. She drops back to 1m today having failed to land a blow at that trip before, and first-time headgear is now tried after three modest efforts in a row. The trainer and jockey both have below-average strike rates here on the AW. Usually held up with high confidence she should be suited by the strong pace likely.
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10Suntino Lady38/100
Suntino Lady is a limited filly who has shown only modest form in three starts and was well held when fifth over this trip on her only visit to Newcastle. The yard's modest record here adds little confidence and neither does the jockey's strike-rate at the track. Trip and ground both remain unproven questions with so few runs on the board. Usually held up she will need the strong pace to unfold in her favour.
KTB verdict
Fickle McSelfish is the KTB Selection. A modest performer with a previous win at the track and placed efforts over the trip, he is well suited by the strong pace that should unfold given his held-up run-style. The combination of his course record, the jockey's solid Newcastle figures and the shape of the race all point in his favour. Main dangers are Dalamara, who drops back to a suitable trip with course-winning form, and Sailor's Return, who arrives in better heart with the strongest jockey booking at the venue. Alkumatic Jo Jo and Exotic Baby are next in the KTB order and cannot be ruled out if the race sets up as expected.
KTB Selection Fickle McSelfish
Morning odds
Best available price per runner, captured 00:04 UTC, 1 Oct. These are a morning snapshot and will have moved — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Morning price | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| Fickle McSelfish | 10/3 | 7Bet |
| Alkumatic Jo Jo | 4/1 | BetTom |
| Baldosa | 12/1 | Bet Victor |
This is the narrative read of the 6:30 Newcastle (AW). For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Newcastle (AW) racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Newcastle (AW) results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horses are likely to set the strong pace?
Exotic Baby tends to make the running or race on the pace while Maynora also tends to make the running or race on the pace.
Why does the pace shape favour hold-up horses?
The pace looks strong and could collapse late, which would favour hold-up horses according to the supplied pace shape.
Which runner has the strongest jockey record at Newcastle AW?
Sailor's Return has the jockey with a 19% strike rate at Newcastle AW from 605 rides.
Which of the principals is dropping in class?
Exotic Baby is dropping in class.
Who is the only runner wearing first-time headgear?
Baldosa is the only runner with the first-time headgear flag.
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