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Trainer profile

David & Nicola Barron

1,093 runners in the last 5 seasons · 90 individual horses
As at 1 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily
Non-runners: 8.4% of 225 declared in the last 365 days, counting all recorded withdrawals, including reserves. For context, a typical day across all racing ends with about 6.5% withdrawn (middle half 5.3–8.1% over 364 racing days). As at 1 Nov 2026.
Last runner 5 days ago 100% of runners on the flat
Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2022→)
from 1 Jan 2022
107–1,093
Wins / Runs
9.8%
Strike rate
n=1,093
317 (29%)
Placed
0.91
Fair A/E
n=1,088 · 0.77 incl. margin
−361.02
£1 level stake
n=1,093 at SP · −33.0%
£1.60m
Prize money (window)
Strike by season
8.1%
KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 220 runners a season, almost all on the flat, winning with 10% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 0.91). New recruits from other yards win at 15% first time out (34 runs).

Deterministic profile computed from 1,093 archived runs (last 5 seasons) · updated 1 Nov 2026
KTB at a glance 25% when favourite Connor Beasley: 11% from 154 New recruits: 14.7% Sends off the favourite in 9% of races
The read

The record is strongest at Musselburgh (17.5%, n=97) and Carlisle (18.9%, n=37) — all clear of the yard's 9.8% baseline. New recruits from other stables on their first run win at 14.7% (n=34, Fair A/E 1.07), but debutants struggle at 1.8% (n=56, Fair A/E 0.36). The market has consistently overbet horses returning fresh after 61+ days: 7.9% strike, Fair A/E 0.78 and −18.75 to a £1 stake over 177 runners — those runners underperform what the price implies. Connor Beasley rides 14% of the entries and matches the yard's average almost exactly (11%, A/E 0.92). The stable star of the record: Good Morning Alex (GB) — 8 wins from 29 runs for the yard.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 9.8% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
7.9%−1.9
n=177 · A/E 0.78 · £1 −18.75
New recruits · first run for the yard
14.7%+4.9
n=34 · A/E 1.07 · £1 +13.00
Debutants · first career start
1.8%−8.0
n=56 · A/E 0.36 · £1 −27.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
6.3%−3.5
n=32 · A/E 0.52 · £1 −21.50
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
9.1%−0.7
n=22 · A/E 0.92 · £1 −12.67
When favourite
25%
n=100 · A/E 0.96 · £1 −18.57
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
8.4%−1.4
n=143 · A/E 0.84 · £1 −63.92
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
0%−9.8
n=2 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −2.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 9.8% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. The same beliefs, tested across every yard and every GB and Irish race since 2005: Racing myths.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline
With Ben Curtis 23.5% vs 9.8% · n=51
At Musselburgh 17.5% vs 9.8% · n=97
On last-time-out winners 17% vs 9.8% · n=112
At Carlisle 18.9% vs 9.8% · n=37
With debutants 1.8% vs 9.8% · n=56
With Miss Alice Keighley 18.8% vs 9.8% · n=32
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Going

GoingRWSR£1
Good 335 28 8.4% −160.65
Standard (AW) 280 27 9.6% −84.76
Good to Firm 207 18 8.7% −91.33
Good to Soft 139 13 9.4% −64.12
Soft 118 19 16.1% +28.59
Heavy 14 2 14.3% +11.25

Courses

CourseRWSR£1
Newcastle (AW) 129 9 7% −83.19
Musselburgh 97 17 17.5% +11.75
Redcar 97 7 7.2% −40.25
Thirsk 96 9 9.4% −27.50
Southwell (AW) 95 12 12.6% +25.85
Ayr 69 7 10.1% −28.12
Ripon 45 5 11.1% −20.93
York 44 1 2.3% −41.12
Doncaster 42 1 2.4% −37.50
Haydock 41 5 12.2% −15.34
Hamilton 39 6 15.4% +9.38
Wolverhampton (AW) 37 3 8.1% −23.75
Carlisle 37 7 18.9% +11.00
Catterick 37 5 13.5% −8.79
Pontefract 34 1 2.9% −13.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1
Class 5 315 29 9.2% −112.60
Class 6 299 41 13.7% −47.33
Class 4 241 20 8.3% −95.05
Class 3 121 8 6.6% −68.12
Class 2 112 9 8% −32.92
Class 1 2 0 0% −2.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite 123 31 25.2% 0.99 −23.04
2nd–3rd fav 271 39 14.4% 0.88 −83.48
4th–6th fav 370 26 7% 0.88 −117.50
7th+ in betting 329 11 3.3% 0.93 −137.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first
HorseRWPlLast ran
Zarzyni (IRE)from David Barron 47 4 12 12 Apr 26
Persuasion (IRE)from Charles Hills 45 4 17 24 Jun 26
Homer Stokes (GB)from David Barron 42 6 13 10 Mar 26
Ahamoment (IRE)from David Barron 36 6 12 28 Oct 25
Mereside Diva (IRE) 35 6 14 23 May 26
Swift Salian (IRE) 33 3 12 27 Oct 26
On A Session (USA)from David Barron · then Kieran P Cotter 33 2 9 9 Aug 24
Jer Batt (IRE)from David Harry Kelly 30 3 13 30 Sep 26
Cargin Bhui (IRE) 29 3 13 24 Oct 26
Good Morning Alex (GB) 29 8 9 28 Sep 26
Doralee (GB) 28 2 7 25 Sep 26
Baryshnikov (GB)from David Barron 28 3 11 30 Mar 25
Showing the 60 most-raced of the 90 horses sent out in this window — each ran at least 5 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 60 horses listed, 25 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from David Barron (19); 35 had their first archived run for this yard.

11 have since run for another yard, most often for Tom McGuinness (2); 49 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

Current form

significance-gated

Last 14 days

Small sample
1 from 6
Only 6 runners in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.

When the yard fires

strike by month, 5 seasons
JFMAMJJASOND
9198111012799907
A flat yard: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first
Go-to riderConnor Beasley
14% of all rides
11% SR · A/E 0.92
RiderRWSR£1
Connor Beasley 154 17 11% −30.84
Callum Rodriguez 126 19 15.1% −7.17
William Pyle 103 5 4.9% −68.25
Lewis Edmunds 72 7 9.7% −38.90
Joe Fanning 70 12 17.1% +18.88
Ben Curtis 51 12 23.5% +14.58
David Nolan 41 3 7.3% −25.25
Jason Hart 34 2 5.9% −28.75
Miss Alice Keighley 32 6 18.8% +6.08
Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2022→
107
Archived wins
£1.60m
Prize money
2022
Best season · 27 wins
Pilgrim (GB) — Palace Of Holyroodhouse Stakes (Handicap) Ascot · Jun 2024 · Class 2
£56,694
Jer Batt (IRE) — Sky Bet, For The Fans Handicap Haydock · Aug 2024 · Class 2
£38,655
Pilgrim (GB) — Virgin Bet Scottish Sprint Cup Handicap Musselburgh · Apr 2026 · Class 2
£36,078
Notable horses
Good Morning Alex (GB) Homer Stokes (GB) Ahamoment (IRE) Mereside Diva (IRE) Zarzyni (IRE) Persuasion (IRE)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip
Swiss Spirit (GB) 8.8% · 6–68
Progeny have won 9.5% of 3,646 runs since 2008 (243 horses). Weakest on Soft going: 4.5% from 244. Weakest over 1m2f – 1m4f (all codes): 3.7% from 136.
Alhebayeb (IRE) 16.4% · 9–55
Progeny have won 8.3% of 2,637 runs since 2008 (160 horses). Strongest on Heavy going: 11.7% from 179. Strongest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 11.5% from 253.
Siyouni (FR) 8.5% · 4–47
Progeny have won 13% of 8,345 runs since 2008 (978 horses). Weakest on Heavy going: 9.2% from 457.
Acclamation (GB) 8.9% · 4–45
Progeny have won 10% of 19,702 runs since 2008 (1,327 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 15.2% from 151. Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 6.7% from 194.
Stimulation (IRE) 14.3% · 6–42
Progeny have won 8.2% of 1,724 runs since 2008 (100 horses). Strongest on Good going: 11.4% from 368. Strongest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 12.4% from 145.
Bungle Inthejungle (GB) 10.8% · 4–37
Progeny have won 8.8% of 4,240 runs since 2008 (353 horses). Weakest on Heavy going: 2.4% from 123. Weakest over 1m2f – 1m4f (all codes): 2.4% from 124.
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 1 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 1,093 · newest first

The latest 50 of 1,093 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 26 March 2022 to 27 October 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP
27 Oct 26 Wolverhampton (AW) Sailor Batt (IRE)J: William Pyle Saisons D'Or 100th Race Handicap Stakes (Div I)Class 6 · 7f · Standard · 9 ran 5th 28/1
27 Oct 26 Catterick Swift Salian (IRE)J: Callum Rodriguez Every Race Live On Racing TV Handicap StakesClass 5 · 7f · Soft · 15 ran 11th 12/1
26 Oct 26 Southwell (AW) Tip Foster (GB)J: Callum Rodriguez Midnite: Built For 2026 Not 2006 Handicap StakesClass 5 · 6f · Standard · 8 ran 1st 11/1
26 Oct 26 Southwell (AW) Nando Tornado (IRE)J: Andrew Mullen Midnite A Next Generation Betting App Novice Stakes (gbb Race)Class 4 · 6f · Standard · 10 ran 6th 28/1
26 Oct 26 Redcar Degale (GB)J: William Pyle Thanks And See You Next Season Handicap Stakes (Div II)Class 6 · 6f · Heavy · 14 ran 9th 13/2
24 Oct 26 Doncaster Cargin Bhui (IRE)J: Joanna Mason Rfj And Bee Jays Electrical Handicap Stakes (Div I)Class 4 · 7f · Heavy · 13 ran 5th 28/1
14 Oct 26 Nottingham Blue Boy Junior (IRE)J: Hector Crouch Conference And Events At Nottingham Racecourse Handicap Stakes (Div I)Class 5 · 8.5f · Good To Soft · 10 ran 6th 11/2
13 Oct 26 Wolverhampton (AW) Sailor Batt (IRE)J: Finley Marsh Race & Rest - Wolverhampton Holiday Inn Handicap StakesClass 6 · 8.5f · Standard · 10 ran 4th 4/1
13 Oct 26 Wolverhampton (AW) Degale (GB)J: William Pyle Cavani Champion Style Handicap StakesClass 6 · 6f · Standard · 12 ran 3rd 3/1F
05 Oct 26 Pontefract Swift Salian (IRE)J: Kevin Stott Good Biscuit - Ponte Premiership Champion Handicap StakesClass 5 · 8f · Good · 13 ran 13th 10/1
05 Oct 26 Pontefract Cargin Bhui (IRE)J: William Pyle Autism In Racing Handicap StakesClass 5 · 6f · Good · 12 ran 5th 33/1
03 Oct 26 Redcar Quillan (IRE)J: Kaiya Fraser William Hill Two Year Old Trophy (Listed Race)Class 1 · 6f · Good · 13 ran 11th 28/1
01 Oct 26 Newcastle (AW) Suntino Lady (GB)J: William Pyle Download The Racecourse App Raceday Ready Handicap StakesClass 6 · 8f · Standard · 10 ran 7th 66/1
30 Sep 26 Musselburgh Jer Batt (IRE)J: Clifford Lee Weatherbys Stallion Book Handicap StakesClass 4 · 5f · Good To Soft · 12 ran 4th 7/2
29 Sep 26 Ayr Sailor Batt (IRE)J: Connor Beasley Book Your Event At Ayr Racecourse Handicap StakesClass 6 · 7f · Heavy · 11 ran 7th 18/1
29 Sep 26 Ayr Tip Foster (GB)J: David Nolan Autumn Breaks At Western House Hotel Handicap StakesClass 4 · 7f · Heavy · 10 ran 10th 33/1
29 Sep 26 Ayr Swift Salian (IRE)J: William Pyle Christmas Party Day Dancing @Ayr Racecourse Apprentice Handicap StakesClass 5 · 8f · Heavy · 8 ran 5th 20/1
28 Sep 26 Hamilton Good Morning Alex (GB)J: Connor Beasley John Mackenzie And Hamish Macgregor Memorial Handicap StakesClass 3 · 8.5f · Soft · 13 ran 10th 12/1
28 Sep 26 Hamilton Kompozitor (GB)J: Connor Beasley Moira Stein Memorial Ebf Restricted Maiden Stakes (for Horses In Bands C And D) (Ebf Restricted Race Qualifier) (GBB Race)Class 4 · 5f · Soft · 6 ran 3rd 5/1
26 Sep 26 Southwell (AW) Degale (GB)J: Tom Kiely-Marshall Book The Bistro In Seasons Restaurant Apprentice Handicap StakesClass 6 · 8f · Standard · 14 ran 6th 12/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

KTB’s figures

the forward record · since 5 Oct 2026

KTB’s figures on this yard’s runners since 13 Oct 2026: top-rated on KTB Rating in 1 run (won 0) · fastest on KTB Speed in 1 run (won 0) · to 14 Oct 2026.

Each pick was a KTB figure’s choice before the off — the published KTB Selection, the top-rated horse on KTB Rating, the fastest on KTB Speed — settled against the result the next morning and never worked out again; “did not run” is counted apart. GB and Irish races only. A record of weeks so far: read it as a count, not a verdict.

Quick answers

What is David & Nicola Barron's strike rate?
David & Nicola Barron has won 107 of 1,093 runners since 2022, a strike rate of 9.8% (as at 1 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does David & Nicola Barron do best at?
Carlisle by strike rate: 7 wins from 37 runners (18.9%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for David & Nicola Barron?
Connor Beasley, with 154 runners since 2022 — 14% of the total. That pairing has won 17 (11%).
Is David & Nicola Barron in form?
Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 6 runners, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is David & Nicola Barron's Fair A/E?
0.91, from 1,088 runners with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%". Three sample sizes are reported and never blended: runs (n), the ROI basis (n at SP), and the fair-A/E basis (n with a computed fair probability).

Strike rate is wins over all runs (n). ROI is £1 level stakes at SP over runs with a parseable price (n at SP). Fair A/E is wins over margin-stripped market expectation, over runs with a computed fair probability (n fair). The three Ns can legitimately differ and are always shown. Figures as at 1 November 2026, computed from our own results archive (2005 onwards; aggregates from 2008).