8:30 Dundalk (AW)
This Irish Stallion Farms EBF Fillies Handicap over 7f at Dundalk on standard ground brings together a compact field of six where class and course experience are likely to count. The KTB Fit Scores identify Aviatrice as the clear top pick on 62, with Bear On The Run, Mallavelly and All The Girls following in the principals on 58, 54 and 51 respectively. All six runners have shown ability at this venue and on the surface, yet the ratings and recent form suggest a race where proven track effectiveness and the ability to produce a late effort will be decisive.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape lacks an obvious leader and points to a steadily-run, tactical contest in which being handy on the turn could prove advantageous. With every runner in the field described as held up and producing its effort late, the early fractions are expected to be modest, setting up a race where positioning and timing the run from off the pace will be critical. The key question is whether any horse can quicken decisively off a steady gallop or whether the race will fall to the one with the strongest finishing kick in the straight.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Aviatrice KTB Selection62/100
Aviatrice arrives with a KTB Fit Score of 62 and is the selection. She is a useful performer with a solid record at Dundalk, having won three of her six starts here. She has also won three times from six runs on standard ground and has a win at this trip in the past, though she drops back from a mile last time. Both the trainer and jockey have 10% strike rates at Dundalk from large samples. Her recent form reads 303288 and she carries an official rating of 95 from draw 2. Usually held up, she produces her effort late.
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2Bear On The Run58/100
Bear On The Run is rated a fair performer on a KTB Fit Score of 58. He has already won here over 6f on this surface from his only previous visit. He steps up to 7f for the first time today which asks a fresh question. Trainer and jockey both have solid if unspectacular records at Dundalk. His recent form figures are 51-16 and he carries an official rating of 89 from draw 3 as a 3-year-old. Usually held up, he produces his effort late.
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3Mallavelly54/100
Mallavelly is a fair performer with a KTB Fit Score of 54. He won on his only previous visit to Dundalk and has a solid record on standard going. He drops back to 7f today having last run over a mile, a trip at which he has already scored once from nine attempts. The yard has a good 17% strike rate here from a huge sample while the jockey's 7% mark from even more rides is more modest. His recent form reads 723677 and he carries an official rating of 81 from draw 6. Usually held up, he produces his effort late.
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4All The Girls51/100
All The Girls is a fair 3-year-old with a KTB Fit Score of 51. She has a solid course record here at Dundalk where she has won once from six starts. She has shown consistent form on this standard surface with a win and four placings from six runs and has already won over today's 7f trip. The trainer and jockey both operate at a 7% strike rate at the track from large samples. Her recent form figures are 063825 and she carries an official rating of 81 from draw 1. Usually held up, she produces her effort late.
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5Glitter And Glory50/100
Glitter And Glory is a modest performer with a KTB Fit Score of 50. He has won once here from four starts and holds a solid 1-4 record on standard going. He drops back to 7f today after a string of ordinary efforts over a mile and the recent form figures suggest he is struggling to find his best level. Trainer records a 9% strike-rate at Dundalk from a large sample while the jockey is operating at 11%. Usually held up, he produces his effort late.
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6Temperance44/100
Temperance is a fair performer with a KTB Fit Score of 44. She has run to form on both previous visits to Dundalk, finishing second each time on this surface. She has been placed on all two starts on standard going and has shown up in several races at this trip, though without winning. The trainer has yet to strike at the track from 15 runs while the jockey's record here is modest. Usually held up, she produces her effort late.
KTB verdict
Aviatrice stands out as the KTB Selection. She is a useful performer with a strong record at this track, three wins from six starts here, and three wins from six runs on standard ground, while both trainer and jockey have 10% strike rates at Dundalk from large samples. Her ability to drop back from a mile to a trip she has won over before, combined with her late-run style in a steadily-run race, gives her the strongest profile. The main dangers are likely to come from Bear On The Run, who won here over 6f on his only previous visit, and Mallavelly, who also boasts a prior course success and a yard in good form at the venue.
KTB Selection Aviatrice
Morning odds
Best available price per runner, captured 00:13 UTC, 2 Oct. These are a morning snapshot and will have moved — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Morning price | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| Aviatrice | 15/8 | Bet365 |
| Bear On The Run | 2/1 | BetTom |
| Mallavelly | 11/2 | Bet365 |
| All The Girls | 5/1 | BetTom |
| Glitter And Glory | 12/1 | BetTom |
| Temperance | 18/1 | Bet365 |
This is the narrative read of the 8:30 Dundalk (AW). For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Dundalk (AW) racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Dundalk (AW) results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Why is Aviatrice rated the top selection?
She is a useful performer with a solid record at this track, having won three of her six starts here, three wins from six runs on standard ground, and both trainer and jockey have 10% strike rates at Dundalk from large samples.
What does the lack of a leader mean for race tactics?
It points to a steadily-run, tactical affair where being handy pays, with every runner held up and producing effort late.
Which horse is stepping up in trip for the first time?
Bear On The Run steps up to 7f for the first time today having won here over 6f on his only previous visit.
How do the yards of the two highest-rated principals compare at Dundalk?
David Marnane has a 10% strike rate at Dundalk from 1270 runs while G. M. Lyons has a 17% strike rate from 1582 runs.
Which runner has the strongest course record on standard ground at Dundalk?
Aviatrice has three wins from six starts here and three wins from six runs on standard ground.
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