6:30 Dundalk (AW)
This 1m Irish EBF Fillies Maiden at Dundalk on standard going is the evening's concluding race on the all-weather, featuring a field of seven two-year-olds with limited racecourse evidence between them. The KTB Fit Scores are tightly bunched across the principals, ranging from 49 to 47, reflecting the modest level of confidence possible given the lack of established form and the pace shape rated as unclear with low confidence. Aidan O'Brien supplies two of the top four in the KTB ranking, underlining the yard's strength in these maidens, while several newcomers add further layers of guesswork to the contest.
How the race shapes up
With the pace shape unclear and low confidence in the run-style data across the field, it is difficult to map how the race will unfold. Somebody Loves Me from draw 2 and the newcomer Alaraza from stall 1 could end up prominent if they show early speed, while Golden Ring is the one confirmed hold-up performer who usually produces its effort late. The key question is whether any horse can seize an uncontested position or whether the race will fragment into a scramble for the line with so many unexposed runners involved.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Somebody Loves Me KTB Selection49/100
Somebody Loves Me is the KTB Selection. This Aidan O'Brien newcomer cost 260,000 euros as a yearling and is a half-brother to a couple of useful winners out of a mare who won over 7f on Polytrack. The yard's solid 23% strike rate at Dundalk from 937 runs is the main positive, though the 5% jockey strike rate recorded by Jack Cleary from 258 rides at the track and the low data confidence make this guesswork at this stage. By Frankel, the colt has a 17% overall win rate attached to that sire. Drawn in stall 2, this represents a first run for a powerful stable that knows the venue well.
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2Lady Chancalot48/100
Lady Chancalot showed little on her sole start over 7f and now steps up to an untested 1m. The Jack W Davison yard holds a 10% strike rate at Dundalk from 194 runs while James Ryan is operating at a 7% strike rate from 641 rides here. With only one run on the board and no reliable going data the filly remains very hard to assess. She has no course form on record and is unproven on the standard surface. Connections will be hoping the extra furlong brings about improvement.
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3Golden Ring48/100
Golden Ring has shown fair placed form in two starts at shorter trips and now steps up to 1m for the first time. The trip is an unknown that could suit or expose him. Aidan O'Brien's 23% strike rate at Dundalk from a huge sample gives the yard solid track knowledge while jockey W M Lordan operates at an 11% strike rate here from 2016 rides. Usually held up, the colt produces its effort late with medium confidence in that run-style. No runs on the standard surface mean the going remains unproven.
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4Drumbinion Lass47/100
Drumbinion Lass is a newcomer with no racecourse experience. The pedigree and sales background offer the only clues here, but the low data confidence means any conclusions are tentative. Trainer T G McCourt has a modest 7% strike-rate at Dundalk from a huge sample of 1000 runs while jockey Adam Caffrey records a solid 12% at the track from 498 rides. By Awtaad, the sire has a 12% overall win rate. Drawn in stall 4, she will be sent about her business in a race where many are in the same boat.
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5Alaraza44/100
Alaraza is a newcomer from the powerful Weld yard. The trainer has a solid 12% strike-rate at Dundalk from a huge sample of 727 runs while jockey W J Lee posts a respectable 10% from over 1700 rides here. With no racecourse form and only low data confidence the colt's chance rests entirely on his pedigree and any breeze-up performance.
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6State Of Clarity44/100
State Of Clarity is a newcomer from a yard that operates at a modest 9% strike rate here. The colt cost 72,000 euros as a yearling and is by State Of Rest out of a dam who won over 7f. Connections have a modest record at the track so expectations should be kept in check on debut.
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7Knightlight44/100
Henry de Bromhead's newcomer is bred to be speedy and should handle the all-weather surface. The yard's modest 9% strike-rate at Dundalk from a large sample suggests this is more an educational run than one with strong expectations. Robbie Colgan's 5% record at the track from over 750 rides further points to limited confidence on debut.
KTB verdict
Somebody Loves Me is the KTB Selection in a race where the lack of hard form makes the outcome particularly open. The Aidan O'Brien colt brings the strongest yard track record at Dundalk among the principals and appealing pedigree connections for the surface, though the 5% jockey strike rate and low data confidence keep expectations in check. Lady Chancalot, Golden Ring and Drumbinion Lass are the other main contenders on KTB Fit, each carrying their own question marks over trip, ground or lack of experience. The race is likely to be decided by which of these unexposed types adapts quickest to the demands of Dundalk.
KTB Selection Somebody Loves Me
Morning odds
Best available price per runner, captured 00:01 UTC, 2 Oct. These are a morning snapshot and will have moved — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Morning price | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| Somebody Loves Me | 9/2 | Bet365 |
| Lady Chancalot | 33/1 | Bet365 |
| Golden Ring | 4/6 | Bet Victor |
| Drumbinion Lass | 28/1 | Bet365 |
| Alaraza | 5/1 | BetTom |
| State Of Clarity | 11/1 | Bet365 |
| Knightlight | 14/1 | Bet365 |
This is the narrative read of the 6:30 Dundalk (AW). For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Dundalk (AW) racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Dundalk (AW) results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has the best trainer strike rate at Dundalk among the principals?
Somebody Loves Me and Golden Ring, both from Aidan O'Brien who has a 23% strike rate at Dundalk from 937 runs.
How many of the seven runners are complete newcomers with no previous starts?
Four runners are newcomers: Somebody Loves Me, Drumbinion Lass, Alaraza and State Of Clarity.
Which horse is the only one with confirmed held-up run style?
Golden Ring is usually held up and produces its effort late with medium confidence.
What is the combined trainer strike rate at Dundalk for the two Aidan O'Brien runners?
Both are trained by Aidan O'Brien who records a 23% strike rate at Dundalk from 937 runs.
Which jockey has the highest strike rate at Dundalk among those riding in this race?
Adam Caffrey has a 12% strike rate at Dundalk from 498 rides, the highest among the jockeys listed.
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