What is Caroline Bailey's strike rate?

Caroline Bailey has won 165 of 1,466 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 11.3% (as at 31 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does Caroline Bailey do best at?

Wetherby by strike rate: 9 wins from 52 runners (17.3%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Who rides most for Caroline Bailey?

Andrew Thornton, with 589 runners since 2008 — 40% of the total. That pairing has won 57 (9.7%).

What is Caroline Bailey's Fair A/E?

0.97, from 1,458 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Trainer profile

Caroline Bailey

1,466 runners in the lifetime window · 160 individual horses

As at 31 Oct 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Last runner Jun 2022 100% of runners over jumps

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)

from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it

165–1,466

Wins / Runs

11.3%

Strike rate

n=1,466

437 (30%)

Placed

0.97

Fair A/E

n=1,458 · 0.87 incl. margin

−343.18

£1 level stake

n=1,466 at SP · −23.4%

£1.37m

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

5.3%

KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 80 runners a season, almost all over hurdles and fences, winning with 11% of them — level with the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 0.97). Horses with headgear back on after a bare run strike at 18% (49 runs).

Deterministic profile computed from 1,466 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 31 Oct 2026

KTB at a glance Fires Feb–Apr 29.4% when favourite Andrew Thornton: 9.7% from 589 Headgear returns: 18.4% Sends off the favourite in 10% of races

The read

It is weakest at Towcester (4.2% over 119 runners) — the widest gap in the record. A horse having headgear put back on after a bare run has been a positive signal at 18.4% (n=49, Fair A/E 1.31), but debutants struggle at 4.7% (n=85, Fair A/E 1.02). The market has consistently overbet horses returning fresh after 61+ days: 6.6% strike, Fair A/E 0.74 and −123.50 to a £1 stake over 259 runners — those runners underperform what the price implies. Andrew Thornton rides 40% of the entries and matches the yard's average almost exactly (9.7%, A/E 0.89). The record reads poorly in NH Flat races — 0% over 59 runners, 11.3pts below the baseline. The market has consistently overbet the yard off a break of 180+ days: Fair A/E 0.59 across 153 runners (4.6% strike, −87.75 to a £1 stake) — runners there underperform what the price implies. The stable star of the record: Noble Legend (GB) — 8 wins from 40 runs for the yard. Seasonally, the yard fires Feb–Apr.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 11.3% baseline

Fresh · 61+ days off

6.6%−4.7

n=259 · A/E 0.74 · £1 −123.50

New recruits · first run for the yard

7.8%−3.5

n=64 · A/E 1.00 · £1 −29.14

Debutants · first career start

4.7%−6.6

n=85 · A/E 1.02 · £1 −20.50

First-time headgear · true-first definition

6.9%−4.4

n=58 · A/E 0.77 · £1 −41.12

Headgear returns · back on after a bare run

18.4%+7.1

n=49 · A/E 1.31 · £1 −0.62

When favourite

29.4%

n=153 · A/E 0.99 · £1 −14.83

Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle

10.7%−0.6

n=187 · A/E 0.99 · £1 −37.55

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

0%−11.3

n=18 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −18.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 11.3% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

On last-time-out winners 22.6% vs 11.3% · n=164

With Harry Skelton 21.4% vs 11.3% · n=103

In NH Flat races 0% vs 11.3% · n=59

With C&D winners 19.2% vs 11.3% · n=151

At Towcester 4.2% vs 11.3% · n=119

Off a break of 180+ days 4.6% vs 11.3% · n=153

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1

Chase 779 112 14.4% −100.03

Hurdle 628 53 8.4% −184.15

NH Flat 59 0 0% −59.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Good 587 67 11.4% −42.94

Good to Soft 339 32 9.4% −125.29

Soft 328 43 13.1% −87.18

Heavy 108 15 13.9% −30.14

Good to Firm 96 8 8.3% −49.63

Standard (AW) 8 0 0% −8.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Southwell 206 35 17% +8.97

Huntingdon 171 22 12.9% −31.79

Uttoxeter 145 13 9% −30.04

Leicester 132 22 16.7% −8.02

Towcester 119 5 4.2% −100.93

Warwick 89 10 11.2% −7.49

Market Rasen 86 6 7% −45.00

Fakenham 81 10 12.3% −37.37

Worcester 62 8 12.9% −2.25

Wetherby 52 9 17.3% +21.62

Doncaster 48 2 4.2% −38.25

Stratford 35 3 8.6% −17.00

Bangor-on-Dee 35 3 8.6% −1.50

Haydock 24 5 20.8% +10.50

Newbury 21 1 4.8% +30.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 4 762 93 12.2% −86.32

Class 5 341 42 12.3% −76.07

Class 3 253 25 9.9% −102.54

Class 2 44 2 4.5% −24.00

Class 6 38 2 5.3% −31.75

Class 1 25 0 0% −25.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 191 52 27.2% 0.97 −21.83

2nd–3rd fav 396 60 15.2% 0.90 −105.35

4th–6th fav 458 43 9.4% 1.20 −41.00

7th+ in betting 421 10 2.4% 0.77 −175.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Jumping record

completion over obstacles · same window as header

83.4% completed · 1,407 obstacle runners (chases & hurdles)

CodeRCompFURPUBDOth

Chase 779 80.7% 20 15 112 1 2

Hurdle 628 86.6% 12 3 64 4 1

Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Elkstone (GB)from Alan King 45 5 13 3 May 22

Prince des Marais (FR)from Tim Walford 42 6 18 20 May 15

Noble Legend (GB) 40 8 13 18 Jan 17

Global Flyer (GB) 35 5 9 10 Jun 13

Crosspark (GB)then Nick Kent 34 6 17 24 Apr 21

Galway Jack (IRE)from G T H Bailey · then G T H Bailey 32 8 17 16 May 17

Global Dream (GB) 31 5 12 12 Dec 19

Donald Will Do (IRE) 31 1 11 13 Apr 11

Lord Sparky (GB)then Stuart Edmunds 29 5 11 23 May 22

Dealing River (GB)from Neil King 28 6 9 9 Sep 17

High Ron (GB) 28 6 9 2 Oct 16

Gold Ingot (GB)from Alan King 25 3 9 3 Oct 17

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 160 horses sent out in this window — each ran at least 9 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 60 horses listed, 25 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from Alan King (6) and G T H Bailey (2); 35 had their first archived run for this yard.

17 have since run for another yard; 43 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

When the yard fires

strike by month, lifetime

JFMAMJJASOND

912161810101110199414

A jumps yard: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first

Go-to riderAndrew Thornton

40% of all rides
9.7% SR · A/E 0.89

RiderRWSR£1

Andrew Thornton 589 57 9.7% −272.42

Sean Bowen 175 24 13.7% −43.38

Tom Messenger 103 10 9.7% +25.33

Harry Skelton 103 22 21.4% +35.76

Adam Pogson 91 17 18.7% +70.45

James Bowen 53 5 9.4% +9.00

Robert Dunne 42 4 9.5% −20.50

Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2005→

182

Archived wins

£1.48m

Prize money

2014

Best season · 21 wins

In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.

Crosspark (GB) — Vertem Eider Handicap Chase Newcastle · Feb 2019 · Class 2

£50,048

Noble Legend (GB) — BetVictor Grand National 6 Places Handicap Chase (Jockey Club Grassroots Chase Series Final) Haydock · Mar 2013 · Class 2

£32,490

Malapie (IRE) — Golden Miller Handicap Hurdle Leicester · Jan 2018 · Class 3

£9,865

Notable horses

Noble Legend (GB) Galway Jack (IRE) Prince des Marais (FR) Crosspark (GB) High Ron (GB) Dealing River (GB)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Midnight Legend (GB) 15.7% · 22–140

Progeny have won 14.2% of 8,310 runs since 2008 (494 horses).

Witness Box (USA) 21.2% · 14–66

Progeny have won 9.1% of 2,675 runs since 2008 (194 horses). Weakest on Good to Firm going: 4% from 173.

Avonbridge (GB) 15.4% · 8–52

Progeny have won 8.6% of 3,930 runs since 2008 (262 horses). Strongest at trips under 6f (all codes): 11.6% from 795.

Alflora (IRE) 12.5% · 6–48

Progeny have won 9.8% of 5,312 runs since 2008 (535 horses).

Network (GER) 14.3% · 6–42

Progeny have won 14.1% of 3,768 runs since 2008 (380 horses). Weakest beyond 3m (all codes): 10.2% from 274.

Sir Harry Lewis (USA) 12.8% · 5–39

Progeny have won 11.8% of 2,425 runs since 2008 (190 horses). Strongest on Heavy going: 17.3% from 306.

Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 31 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 1,587 · newest first

The latest 50 of 1,587 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 11 March 2005 to 20 June 2022.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

20 Jun 22 Southwell Matchmaking (GER)J: Sean Bowen Prestige Safety Nationwide H&S Support Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 24.5f · Good · 12 ran 9th 5/2F

03 Jun 22 Huntingdon Matchmaking (GER)J: Mr Jack Andrews Directors Conditional Jockeys' Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 25f · Good · 6 ran 1st 11/4

23 May 22 Huntingdon Begin The Luck (IRE)J: Mr Jack Andrews Bet At racingtv.com Handicap HurdleClass 4 · 16f · Good · 6 ran 6th 16/1

23 May 22 Huntingdon Lord Sparky (GB)J: Mr Jack Andrews Visit racingtv.com Handicap ChaseClass 4 · 20f · Good · 6 ran 3rd 85/40

22 May 22 Fakenham Hunky (FR)J: Jamie Moore Racingtv Proud To Welcome Fakenham Racecourse Novices' Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 23.5f · Good · 8 ran PU 15/2

07 May 22 Warwick Lord Sparky (GB)J: Mr Jack Andrews Racing Tv Conditional Jockeys' Handicap ChaseClass 5 · 24f · Good · 9 ran 2nd 7/2

03 May 22 Fakenham Elkstone (GB)J: Jack Quinlan 100% RacingTV Profits Back Into Racing Handicap ChaseClass 5 · 21f · Good · 7 ran F 14/1

30 Apr 22 Uttoxeter Hunky (FR)J: Mr Jack Andrews 61 Deep Pale Ale Novices' Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 23.5f · Good · 15 ran 5th 50/1

22 Apr 22 Southwell Begin The Luck (IRE)J: Mr Jack Andrews At The Races App Form Study Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 16f · Good · 14 ran PU 9/4F

22 Apr 22 Southwell Matchmaking (GER)J: Jack Quinlan Cazoo Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 24.5f · Good · 10 ran 1st 7/2

18 Apr 22 Huntingdon Lord Sparky (GB)J: Mr Jack Andrews Visit Racingtv.com Handicap ChaseClass 5 · 23.5f · Good · 7 ran 2nd 11/4

05 Apr 22 Southwell Matchmaking (GER)J: Sean Bowen Off The Fence On youtube.com/attheraces Novices' Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 20.5f · Good · 14 ran 4th 13/2

02 Apr 22 Chepstow Cobra De Mai (FR)J: David Bass Price Promise At bet365 Handicap ChaseClass 4 · 23.5f · Good · 7 ran 5th 11/2

31 Mar 22 Wetherby Lord Sparky (GB)J: Sean Bowen racingtv.com Handicap ChaseClass 4 · 24f · Soft · 9 ran 4th 9/1

26 Mar 22 Stratford Hunky (FR)J: Mr Jack Andrews Margaret Banister Birthday Celebration Novices' Hurdle (GBB Race)Class 4 · 16.5f · Good · 10 ran 5th 80/1

26 Mar 22 Stratford Elkstone (GB)J: Mr Jack Andrews 25 Club Handicap ChaseClass 4 · 19.5f · Good · 4 ran 3rd 8/1

21 Mar 22 Southwell Coole Lion (IRE)J: Sean Bowen Cazoo Handicap ChaseClass 4 · 24.5f · Good · 6 ran PU 13/2

16 Mar 22 Huntingdon Lord Sparky (GB)J: Mr Jack Andrews tote Pool School Now On YouTube Handicap ChaseClass 5 · 23.5f · Soft · 9 ran 2nd 4/1

16 Mar 22 Huntingdon Elkstone (GB)J: James Bowen 25 Matched First Bet At tote.co.uk Handicap ChaseClass 5 · 20f · Good · 8 ran 4th 10/1

07 Mar 22 Southwell Begin The Luck (IRE)J: Philip Armson Read Davy Russell On Starsportsbet.co.uk Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 16f · Good To Soft · 10 ran 4th 15/8F

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Caroline Bailey's strike rate?: Caroline Bailey has won 165 of 1,466 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 11.3% (as at 31 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Caroline Bailey do best at?: Wetherby by strike rate: 9 wins from 52 runners (17.3%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for Caroline Bailey?: Andrew Thornton, with 589 runners since 2008 — 40% of the total. That pairing has won 57 (9.7%).
What is Caroline Bailey's Fair A/E?: 0.97, from 1,458 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.