What is Connor Brace's strike rate?

Connor Brace has won 74 of 533 rides since 2022, a strike rate of 13.9% (as at 15 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does Connor Brace do best at?

Worcester by strike rate: 8 wins from 40 rides (20%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Which yard does Connor Brace ride most for?

Fergal O'Brien, with 298 rides since 2022 — 56% of the total. That pairing has won 49 (16.4%).

What is Connor Brace's Fair A/E?

1.15, from 532 rides with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Jockey profile

Connor Brace

533 rides in the last 5 seasons · 215 individual horses

As at 15 Oct 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Last ride Jul 2025 98% of rides over jumps

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2018→)

from 1 Jan 2022

74–533

Wins / Runs

13.9%

Strike rate

n=533

152 (29%)

Placed

1.15

Fair A/E

n=532 · 1.01 incl. margin

−62.84

£1 level stake

n=533 at SP · −11.8%

£847k

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

5.3%

KTB Rider Profile

Rides around 110 times a season, almost all over hurdles and fences, winning on 14% of them — beating the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 1.15). Riding last-time-out winners the record reads 32% (74 rides). Rides mostly for Fergal O'Brien — 56% of rides in the window.

Deterministic profile computed from 533 archived runs (last 5 seasons) · updated 15 Oct 2026

KTB at a glance Fires Feb–Mar 43.6% when favourite Fergal O'Brien: 16.4% from 298 LTO winners: 32.4% Rides the favourite in 10% of races

The read

The record is strongest at Worcester (20%, n=40), clear of the rider's 13.9% baseline. Rides on last-time-out winners have been a positive signal at 32.4% (n=74, Fair A/E 1.51), but first rides on a horse have been a poor signal at 5.7% (n=176, Fair A/E 0.58). Fergal O'Brien supplies 56% of the rides and edges the rider's average (16.4% vs 13.9%, A/E 1.12) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. The rider also reads well in Chase races (18.8%, n=144). 6 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the rider has landed: the CPMS Scottish Champion Hurdle at Ayr (Apr 2019, £59,798). The standout partner of the record: Classic Concorde (IRE) — 6 wins from 21 rides together. Seasonally, the rider fires Feb–Mar.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Riding patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 13.9% baseline

First ride on the horse · first captured pairing

5.7%−8.2

n=176 · A/E 0.58 · £1 −108.75

Last-time-out winners · previous run was a win

32.4%+18.5

n=74 · A/E 1.51 · £1 +39.77

Fresh horses · 61+ days off

10%−3.9

n=140 · A/E 0.88 · £1 −38.59

When favourite

43.6%

n=55 · A/E 1.20 · £1 +7.15

Big fields · 14+ runners

10.3%−3.6

n=58 · A/E 1.56 · £1 −9.00

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

16.7%+2.8

n=24 · A/E 2.30 · £1 +16.50

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 13.9% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

On last-time-out winners 32.4% vs 13.9% · n=74

With C&D winners 26.1% vs 13.9% · n=46

On first rides for the horse 5.7% vs 13.9% · n=176

With new recruits 2.6% vs 13.9% · n=39

In Chase races 18.8% vs 13.9% · n=144

At Worcester 20% vs 13.9% · n=40

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1

Hurdle 302 36 11.9% −70.31

Chase 144 27 18.8% +29.14

NH Flat 74 11 14.9% −8.67

Flat 13 0 0% −13.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Good 257 26 10.1% −117.87

Good to Soft 151 27 17.9% +0.82

Soft 91 16 17.6% +28.21

Heavy 21 5 23.8% +39.00

Good to Firm 10 0 0% −10.00

Standard (AW) 2 0 0% −2.00

Firm 1 0 0% −1.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Ffos Las 46 4 8.7% −10.30

Worcester 40 8 20% +0.91

Chepstow 36 6 16.7% +15.20

Uttoxeter 36 3 8.3% −18.49

Market Rasen 34 4 11.8% −15.67

Huntingdon 27 10 37% +27.57

Stratford 26 3 11.5% −4.37

Ludlow 21 4 19% +16.50

Hereford 20 0 0% −20.00

Bangor-on-Dee 19 6 31.6% +14.23

Doncaster 19 3 15.8% −1.40

Exeter 19 2 10.5% −5.64

Newton Abbot 19 0 0% −19.00

Warwick 14 0 0% −14.00

Newbury 14 3 21.4% +0.33

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 4 233 31 13.3% −83.32

Class 5 165 23 13.9% +23.49

Class 3 60 11 18.3% −3.89

Class 2 37 4 10.8% −10.12

Class 1 33 5 15.2% +16.00

Class 6 5 0 0% −5.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 59 26 44.1% 1.25 +11.15

2nd–3rd fav 147 28 19% 1.08 +11.51

4th–6th fav 176 16 9.1% 1.21 −2.50

7th+ in betting 151 4 2.6% 0.84 −83.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Jumping record

completion over obstacles · same window as header

79.1% completed · 446 obstacle rides (chases & hurdles)

CodeRCompFURPUBDOth

Chase 144 71.5% 3 2 36 0 0

Hurdle 302 82.8% 5 2 45 0 0

Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.

Horses ridden

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Classic Concorde (IRE) 21 6 8 24 Apr 25

Gats And Co (GB) 18 4 7 31 May 25

Blaze A Trail (IRE) 15 5 8 14 Jul 24

Ajp Kingdom (IRE) 14 4 8 10 Oct 24

Thatza Dazzler (GB) 13 1 4 30 May 24

Paint The Dream (GB) 12 2 2 21 Apr 25

Lilting Verse (IRE) 12 3 4 16 Apr 25

Newmill Getaway (IRE) 11 1 5 7 May 25

Byzantine Empire (GB) 11 2 4 31 Oct 24

Go On Ya Goodthing (IRE) 11 0 1 24 Sep 24

Mistral Blue (GB) 8 1 2 12 Mar 25

Pink Eyed Pedro (GB) 8 0 1 25 Jun 24

The 60 most-raced of 215 horses ridden in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

By month

strike by month, 5 seasons

JFMAMJJASOND

151925810513122111189

A jumps rider: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Riding for

same window · biggest samples first

Main yardFergal O'Brien

56% of all rides
16.4% SR · A/E 1.12

TrainerRWSR£1

Fergal O'Brien 298 49 16.4% +0.52

David Brace 123 13 10.6% −26.27

Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2018→

161

Archived wins

Pattern / graded wins

£1.72m

Prize money

2019

Best season · 41 wins

Verdana Blue (IRE) — CPMS Scottish Champion Hurdle (Grade 2 Handicap) Ayr · Apr 2019 · Grade 2

£59,798

Crambo (GB) — European Breeders' Fund Betfair 'National Hunt' Novices' Handicap Hurdle Final (Premier Handicap) (GBB Race) Sandown · Mar 2023 · Class 1

£45,016

Springtime Promise (IRE) — Weatherbys Cheltenham Festival Betting Guide Jane Seymour Mares' Novices' Hurdle (Grade 2) (GBB Race) Sandown · Feb 2024 · Grade 2

£28,978

Notable horses

Classic Concorde (IRE) Crambo (GB) Paint The Dream (GB) Blaze A Trail (IRE) Ballyhome (IRE) Horaces Pearl (FR)

Sires of the horses ridden

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Dr Massini (IRE) 11.8% · 4–34

Progeny have won 10.6% of 4,942 runs since 2008 (406 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 14% from 421.

Blue Bresil (FR) 13% · 3–23

Progeny have won 12.1% of 3,477 runs since 2008 (454 horses).

Mahler (GB) 22.7% · 5–22

Progeny have won 10.8% of 8,825 runs since 2008 (782 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 15.1% from 119.

Shantou (USA) 27.3% · 6–22

Progeny have won 13.6% of 7,816 runs since 2008 (539 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 20.3% from 158.

Getaway (GER) 15.8% · 3–19

Progeny have won 11.3% of 10,898 runs since 2008 (1,025 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 23.7% from 131.

Morozov (USA) 31.3% · 5–16

Progeny have won 10.9% of 2,311 runs since 2008 (155 horses). Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 7.9% from 433.

Top line: the rider's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 15 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 1,283 · newest first

The latest 50 of 1,283 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 9 April 2018 to 14 July 2025.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

14 Jul 25 Newton Abbot Galeforcechopper (GB)T: D J Jeffreys Newton Abbot Mascot Race 20th July Mares' Open NH Flat Race (GBB Race)Class 4 · 17f · Good · 5 ran 3rd 25/1

01 Jul 25 Stratford Ray's The One (GB)T: Mark Pattinson Davisons Law Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 18.5f · Good To Firm · 8 ran 7th 18/1

31 May 25 Stratford Gats And Co (GB)T: David Brace Farmers Fresh Handicap Chase (GBB Race)Class 3 · 27.5f · Good · 7 ran PU 16/1

28 May 25 Kempton (AW) Lusaka (IRE)T: John & Rhys Flint Racing TV HandicapClass 5 · 16f · Standard To Slow · 11 ran 9th 66/1

26 May 25 Cartmel Amateur (IRE)T: John & Rhys Flint Molson Coors Veterans' Handicap ChaseClass 3 · 29.5f · Good To Soft · 7 ran 3rd 13/2

25 May 25 Uttoxeter Ask A Sainte (GB)T: David Brace QuinnBet Open NH Flat Race (GBB Race)Class 5 · 16f · Good · 10 ran 9th 13/2

22 May 25 Ffos Las Junior Des Mottes (FR)T: David Brace Adept GRP Cabinets Novices' Limited Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 24f · Good · 7 ran 3rd 9/1

14 May 25 Newton Abbot Pink Eyed Pancho (GB)T: David Brace Terry Wheeler Birthday Novices' Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 18.5f · Good · 10 ran PU 5/2F

07 May 25 Fontwell Newmill Getaway (IRE)T: Fergal O'Brien bet365 Mares' Novices' Limited Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 19f · Good · 11 ran 2nd 6/5F

25 Apr 25 Chepstow Gats And Co (GB)T: David Brace Sun Trade Windows Handicap Chase (GBB Race)Class 4 · 26f · Good · 8 ran 4th 5/1

24 Apr 25 Warwick Loubard (FR)T: Tom Weston racingtv.com Open NH Flat Race (GBB Race)Class 5 · 16f · Good · 13 ran PU 25/1

24 Apr 25 Warwick Classic Concorde (IRE)T: David Brace John Sillett Memorial Handicap HurdleClass 3 · 25f · Good · 6 ran 6th 20/1

23 Apr 25 Perth Horaces Pearl (FR)T: Fergal O'Brien British EBF Gold Castle 'National Hunt' Novices' Hurdle (Listed) (GBB Race)Class 1 · 24f · Good To Soft · 14 ran 3rd 7/2F

21 Apr 25 Chepstow Paint The Dream (GB)T: David Brace Tip Top Clean Convenience Handicap Chase (GBB Race)Class 2 · 19.5f · Good · 9 ran 7th 25/1

21 Apr 25 Chepstow El Muchacho (IRE)T: Olly Murphy Tip Top Riders Restroom Handicap Chase (GBB Race)Class 4 · 16f · Good · 6 ran 3rd 9/2

21 Apr 25 Chepstow Conniemak (GB)T: Tim Vaughan Tip Top Duel Flush Novices' Hurdle (GBB Race)Class 4 · 16f · Good · 10 ran 8th 66/1

19 Apr 25 Huntingdon Royal Mark (FR)T: Tom Weston Happy Easter From Huntingdon Racecourse 'Junior' NH Flat Race (GBB Race)Class 5 · 16f · Good · 8 ran 7th 28/1

19 Apr 25 Huntingdon Bells Of Ufford (IRE)T: Tim Vaughan Happy Birthday Steve Grys Novices' Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 20.5f · Good · 14 ran 8th 6/1

16 Apr 25 Ffos Las Lilting Verse (IRE)T: Fergal O'Brien Adept GRP Cabinets Mares' Handicap HurdleClass 4 · 24f · Soft · 7 ran 5th 11/1

05 Apr 25 Aintree Horaces Pearl (FR)T: Fergal O'Brien Turners Mersey Novices' Hurdle (Grade 1) (GBB Race)Class 1 · 20f · Good · 9 ran 5th 4/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Connor Brace's strike rate?: Connor Brace has won 74 of 533 rides since 2022, a strike rate of 13.9% (as at 15 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Connor Brace do best at?: Worcester by strike rate: 8 wins from 40 rides (20%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Which yard does Connor Brace ride most for?: Fergal O'Brien, with 298 rides since 2022 — 56% of the total. That pairing has won 49 (16.4%).
What is Connor Brace's Fair A/E?: 1.15, from 532 rides with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.