Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
KTB Yard Profile
Sends out around 30 runners a season, almost all on the flat, winning with 8% of them — beating the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 1.18).
Deterministic profile computed from 134 archived runs (last 5 seasons) · updated 20 Oct 2026
The read
The yard also reads well over 1m2f – 1m4f (18.9%, n=37). The record reads poorly in Class 4 — 2.5% over 40 runners, 5pts below the baseline. The market has consistently overbet the yard over 6f – 7f: Fair A/E 0.64 across 52 runners (3.8% strike, −42.30 to a £1 stake) — runners there underperform what the price implies.
Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.
Yard patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 7.5% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
13%+5.5
n=23 · A/E 3.46 · £1 +36.00
New recruits · first run for the yard
11.8%+4.3
n=17 · A/E 3.27 · £1 +21.00
Debutants · first career start
8.3%+0.8
n=12 · A/E 1.65 · £1 −8.80
First-time headgear · true-first definition
0%−7.5
n=8 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −8.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
0%−7.5
n=3 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −3.00
When favourite
0%
n=3 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −3.00
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
7.7%+0.2
n=13 · A/E 0.78 · £1 −9.50
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
0%−7.5
n=5 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −5.00
Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 7.5% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.
Notable angles
vs their own baseline
Over 1m2f – 1m4f18.9% vs 7.5% · n=37
With Thomas Greatrex0% vs 7.5% · n=37
In Class 42.5% vs 7.5% · n=40
In Class 62.6% vs 7.5% · n=39
Over 1m – 1m1f2.8% vs 7.5% · n=36
Over 6f – 7f3.8% vs 7.5% · n=52
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.
Record by conditions
same window as header
Going
GoingRWSR£1
Standard (AW)5135.9%−35.30
Good to Firm3525.7%−27.00
Good26311.5%+33.00
Good to Soft1100%−11.00
Soft10220%+24.00
Firm100%−1.00
Courses
CourseRWSR£1
Kempton (AW)2314.3%−17.00
Windsor1400%−14.00
Southwell (AW)9222.2%+0.70
Salisbury9222.2%+35.00
Lingfield (AW)900%−9.00
Bath800%−8.00
Chepstow800%−8.00
Wolverhampton (AW)800%−8.00
Nottingham7114.3%+12.00
Lingfield700%−7.00
Goodwood6116.7%+5.00
Newbury5120%−1.50
Newmarket5120%+14.00
Ascot400%−4.00
York200%−2.00
Class
ClassRWSR£1
Class 44012.5%−21.00
Class 63912.6%−34.50
Class 526623.1%+37.20
Class 315213.3%+15.00
Class 2900%−9.00
Class 1500%−5.00
Market position
In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite300%0.00−3.00
2nd–3rd fav21523.8%1.51+7.70
4th–6th fav4636.5%1.05−2.00
7th+ in betting6423.1%1.25−20.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.
Distance
DistanceRWSR£1
6f – 7f5223.8%−42.30
1m2f – 1m4f37718.9%+65.50
1m – 1m1f3612.8%−31.50
Under 6f900%−9.00
Handicaps
HandicapsRWSR£1
Handicaps9077.8%−6.50
Field size
Field sizeRWSR£1
8-10 runners51713.7%+31.20
11-13 runners3700%−37.00
5-7 runners2428.3%−0.50
14-16 runners1700%−17.00
17+ runners400%−4.00
2-4 runners11100%+10.00
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
All 29 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next
Of the 29 horses listed, 17 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from Paul Attwater (15) and C Byrnes (2); 12 had their first archived run for this yard.
None of them has a later run for another yard in our archive.
Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.
Current form
significance-gated
Last 14 days
Small sample
0 from 5
Only 5 runners in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.
When the yard fires
strike by month, 5 seasons
JFMAMJJASOND
0130001700230··
A flat yard: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.
Progeny have won 10.2% of 1,172 runs since 2008 (133 horses). Strongest on Good to Soft going: 15.9% from 107. Strongest at trips under 6f (all codes): 13.8% from 354.
Progeny have won 10.1% of 11,577 runs since 2008 (996 horses). Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 5.6% from 108.
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 20 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.
The record
latest 50 of 134 · newest first
The latest 50 of 134 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 6 January 2026 to 14 October 2026.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
What is Charlie Pike's strike rate?
Charlie Pike has won 10 of 134 runners since 2022, a strike rate of 7.5% (as at 20 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Is Charlie Pike in form?
Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 5 runners, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is Charlie Pike's Fair A/E?
1.18, from 133 runners with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Charlie Pike·SR 7.5%·A/E 1.18
KTB
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